Food System Dynamics in Africa: Anticipating and Adapting to Change

David Tschirleywith colleagues in the MAFS and ABCC Consortia

Paper presented at the 6th FARA Science Week15-19 July, 2013

Accra, Ghana

Institutions Involved in MAFS and ABCC

Modernizing African Food Systems (MAFS) team members: Richard Mkandawire, Nelson Ojijo, Tom Anyonge Mwangi, Aissetou Yaye, Moses Osiru, Bernard Bashaasha, John David Kabasa, Johnny Mugisha, Anthony Mugisha, Francis Ejobi, Johann Kirsten, Sheryl Hendriks, Casper Madakadze, Ferdi Meyer, Lulama Traub, John Kaneene, David Tschirley, Steve Haggblade, Duncan Boughton

Africa’s Bending the Curve Consortium (ABCC) members: John Taylor, John David Kabasa (MU), Steven Haggblade (MSU), Nelson Ojijo (FARA), Elna Buys (UP), Francis Ejobi (MU), Riette de Kock (UP), Amanda Minnaar (UP), Hettie Schonfeldt (UP, John Kaneene (MSU), David Tschirley (MSU), Duncan Boughton (MSU)

MAFS and ABCC Members

Outline• Drivers of Change in the African Food Systems

• Resulting changes in food consumption patterns

• Implications for skill requirements in the public and private sector

• Implications for productivity, human health and nutrition

• Anticipating and adapting to change

• Conclusion

Drivers of Change in the African Food Systems

Urban, rural and total population Key drivers• Rapid urban population

growth rates

• Income growth

• Climate change

• Globalization

Resulting changes in food consumption patterns

Urbanization (3%) + income growth (2%)

Rapidly growing food markets

Changing composition of demand + meat+ dairy+ fresh produce+ processed foods

Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050( Africa’s maize belt; by processing level)

Processing level Per capita Total

----- percent increase ------

Own production - 7% + 80%

Unprocessed + 108% + 300%

Informally processed - 34% + 30%

Formal 1 + 126% + 330%

Formal 2 (most processed) + 184% + 440%

Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050( Africa’s maize belt; by commodity type)

Processing level Per capita Total----- percent increase ------

Plantains + 6% + 100%Cassava + 9% + 110% Fish + 29% + 150%… Poultry + 58% + 200%Beef + 66% + 220%Milk & animal fats + 72% + 230%Prepared food away from home + 72% + 230%

Sources of Growth in African Food Systems

Implications for Skill Requirements in the Public and Private Sector and Shifting Focus

on Employment

Implications for Skill Requirements

• More post-farm skills (a)• More private sector engagement (b)• AET to adjust to this new post-farm, private sector

dominance– Change in curricula– Farm and industrial attachment / internships for

students

Need for practical, applied knowledge

Hand to Industrial Processing

More Advanced Skills Needed in Packaging

Changing Skills in Marketing

Changing Skills in Food Safety, Nutrition and Regulation

Preparing students for Industrial Food Processing

Above: Frida, an iAGRI sponsored student in MSU food science lab

Implications for Productivity

Africa Food Staple Zones What Do These Zones Mean?• Staple consumption varies

across zones

• Need to project consumption (model) these across time

• Contribute to understanding productivity levels necessary to meet consumption requirements and match skill requirements

Implications to Human Health and Nutrition

Rapid Urban Population Associated with High Consumption of Starch, Sugar, Fat-Based Foods

High Starch, Sugar, Fat-based Consequences

Rapid Urban Population Growth Associated Consuming Low Micro-Nutrient Foods and

Vitamins

Consequences of Low Consumption of Micro-nutrients and Vitamins

Anticipating and Adapting to Change

• Africa must learn from the mistakes of other developing countries in managing the food systems and adjust

• MAFS to focus on supply side of Africa food marketsassisted by the Advisory Board

• ABCC to focus on the consumer transition associated with food systems transition

Conclusions (1)• Urbanization & income growth– Key drivers of change in the African food systems

the next 40 years• More food will be required • Different food will be required – More processed– More perishable– Better packaged– More ready to eat– Higher quality & safety standards

Conclusions (2)• The new food characteristics will require three

responses:– African AET institutions will need to produce a

different kind of graduate• More technical skills• More applied knowledge• More problem-solving skills

– Diets will be too high in energy, fat, and sugar • obesity, heart disease and diabetes!!

– Many processed foods will have fewer vitamins, minerals and micronutrients • serious nutrition and public health concerns

Conclusions (3)

• All these will require – Collaborative private & public sector intervention– Focused on key education, action research and

knowledge dissemination areas• MAFS and ABCC intend to be among those

informing these interventions

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