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Presentació per part de Hermann Haeusler (Departament de Geociències Ambientals, Universitat de Viena, Àustria) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.
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EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland
and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia
*Hermann Häusler ([email protected]), Diethard Leber, Alexander Kopecny, Matthias Bichler & Martin Reindl
**Wolfgang Schöner, Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter
***Gerhard Bax
*Department of Environmental Geosciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Geography & Astronomy
University of Vienna, Austria
**Central Agency of Meteorology and Geodynamics (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, ZAMG), Vienna, Austria
***Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlshamn, Sweden
Barcelona, Thursday 26 of September, 2013
09.30 – 10.15
• Objectives
• Area of Investigation & Project Data
• Climatological Results
• Glacio-Geological Results
• Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies
• Honouring Gottfried Merzbacher
• Résumé
Content
Objectives & Scope of Project
• Expeditions Tien Shan, Kirgistan: (2009) 2011, 2012
• Expeditions Central Alps, Austria: 2011, 2012
• Presentations at EGU, Vienna: 2011, 2012, 2013
• Presentations at CIRCLE 2: 2011-Chambery, 2012-Innsbruck, 2013-Barcelona
• Bishkek Workshop: 13-17.8.2012
• Presentations at Paro/Bhutan 6.12.2012; Almaty, Kazachstan 13.12.2012; Austrian
Geological Society, Vienna, 24.4.2013; Institute of Geography, University of Vienna,
28.5.2013
Time Table (2011-2013)
Areas of Investigation
www.rockspace.se/climpact
DYURGEROV & MAIER, 2005
Objectives & Scope of Project
Objectives & Scope of Project
General temperature trend on the
territory of the Kirgistan for the
entire period of instrumental
observations 1885-2005
(centigrade; Kuzmichenok, 2003;
Davletkeldiev and Takenov, 2009).
39 meteorological stations
1972
Objectives & Scope of Project
Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
Multiyear air temperature: + 0,015°C/year
Increase summer air temperature
Decrease winter air temperature
Precipitation ± same at all altitudes
(decrease at higher altitudes)
Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
Outer ranges: mild, temperate climate, July MAT = 17°C; 700 mm prec.; ELA at 3600-3800 m
Inner ranges: more severe, continental climate. West Terskey Ala Tau: July MAT = 7-8°C; ELA at 4000 m
Inner ranges: Khokshaal Tau: ELA at 4400-4600 m
Glacier Catalogue UdSSR (1968-1982)
Objectives & Scope of Project
The EURAS-CLIMPACT-project aimed at the empirical modelling of glacier
development from climate data for high alpine glaciers during the last fifty years.
The project linked climate modelling (reanalysis data & statistical downscaling)
with glacier modelling using hydrometeorological and remote sensing data (time
series analysis) & DEM data (ERDAS & ARC/GIS).
The study presents the combination of long-term reanalysis data (National Centre
for Environmental Prediction – NCEP) and future scenario data (European Centre
Hamburg Model - ECHAM5) to drive a spatial glacio-hydrological mass balance
model (GERM – glacier evolution runoff model) in order to assess the impacts of
future climate change on glaciers in Austria and Kirgistan.
The evaluation and downscaling of global climate models in Central Asia
contributes to a better understanding of the potential of these models to describe
present climate and future climate under IPCC scenarios.
• GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model)
is a glacio-hydrological model to
calculate runoff from highly glacierized
catchments.
• The climatic input data are daily
temperature and daily precipitation.
• 3D glacier surface geometry is based on
DEM.
• GERM is run on a 25 m grid in daily
time-steps. The system model includes
components for:
Glacier surface mass balance
(accumulation and ablation)
Evaporation
Runoff routing
Changes in glacier surface
topography and glacier retreat
Glacier Modelling
Climatological Data
Additionally, to the station data above climate data from the Central Asia Database (CAD http://www.sci.uidaho.edu/cae/data/) was used for trend analysis.
Mass Balance & Runoff
Future Mass Balance
Future cumulative annual mass balance until 2050 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1
Goldbergkees (GOK), Austria Golubina (GOL), Kirgistan
Tien Shan Glaciers
Golubine Glacier
Karabatkak Glacier
Inylchek Glacier
Location of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier in the east of the central Tien Shan
(base map courtesy of Kuzmichenok, 2002).
2005
Lake Merzbacher 1 & 2
Lower Lake Merzbacher
Peremitschka
Frontal SIG: Stagnation 1900 - 2005
Position of Southern
Inylchek Glacier basically
has not changed during
the last 100 years
Yearly fluctuation of of
bended Southern Inylchek
Glacier is only possible
due to flow of its front (ice-
dam) when Lower Lake
Merzbacher is filled
1903
2005
2005
Remote Sensing Analysis
Change Detection
- Oblique photos from historical
expeditions
- Aerial stereo photos (UdSSR)
- Topographic maps
- Keyhole satellite mission
- SPOT satellite system
- JERS-1 satellite (VNIR)
- IRS-satellite
- Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS (8)
- ASTER
- Quickbird, Google Earth
- Rapid Eye
- DEM – Topo/SRTM
- ESRI Imagery Basemap
Change Detection
Upper Lake Merzbacher
Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher (1943-2011)
2 km
UTM 410000
Upper Lake Merzbacher
- Staircase terraces Inylchek Valley: Neotectonic vs. sedimentary origin
- Subsurface geology in Northern Inylchek Valley and at confluence (GCO)
- Paleogeographic development of Northern Inylchek Valley since LGM
- Recent surge cycle and paleo surge cycle of Northern Inylchek Glacier
Inylchek-Expeditions 2009-2011
Landsat 7 ETM+ of the Inylchek Glacier acquired August 2006; pan-sharpened; bands 1, 4, 7; ground resolution;
Häusler et al. (2011).
GCO
• Geological setting
• Geomorphological inventory
• Youger fluvial terraces
• Older kame terraces
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
Glacio-Geological Results
Glacio-Geological Results
Glacio-Geological Results
Global Change Observatory (GCO)
GCO
670.00 – 2,500.000 Ωm
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
6.00 – 30.000 Ωm
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
Subsurface Geology
Inylchek-Expedition 2009
- The ERT-measurements allowed for distinguishing subsurface hard rock, soft
rock, and ice, respectively dead ice.
- In the Northern Inylchek Valley the ERT-profiles were interpreted as glacio-
geological profiles resulting from retreating Northern Inylchek Glacier
(Häusler et al., in preparation).
GCO
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
Glaci-lacustrine deposits between Lower and Upper Lake Merzbacher
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
HÄUSLER 2012 Sedimentary microstructures at the base of a debris flow diamicton:
laminated silt & clay with disharmonic folds.
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
The sedimentological profile reveals
lake deposits overlain by basal
moraine (a-b).
This moraine was deposited by a
glacier, which piled up frontal
moraines (in brown) bordering the
Peremitschka.
This glacier therefore advanced after
a very big lake (deposits c-d) existed
in the Northern Inylchek Valley
(Häusler et al., in preparation).
Inylchek-Expedition 2011
The sedimentological investigation of lake sediments of the Peremitschka (A-B) and
on top of the surged Northern Inylchek Glacier (C) allow for reconstruction of a big
paleolake, existing before the Northern Inylchek Glacier piled up the moraine walls,
separating the Peremitschka from Upper Lake Merzbacher (Häusler et al., in
preparation).
Paleolake with length of at minimum 10.000 m
(Original distance A-C)
Glacier Fluctuations
1) From process analysis of the Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) we conclude:
- Positive mass balance of Southern Inylchek Glacier (stable front since 1900) is
caused by both ice flow from the accumulation at 5000-7000 m altitude and
buoyancing of ice-dam and advance of bended glacier opposite GCO, as soon
as Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled.
- Regular advance of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is depending on an
external factor, namely the daming of Lower Lake Merzbacher during summer
until the water is released through an englacial pipe system.
2) From process analysis of the Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG) we conclude:
- In recent times the Northern Inylchek Glacier underwent a surge cycle. Positive
mass balance was also caused by both ice flow from the accumulation area, and
interaction of glacier front with Upper Lake Merzbacher. Once the glacier front
buoyanced, the friction at glacier base was drastically reduced, and the glacier
rapidly advanced (surged).
- We term this rapid advancing process as special type of glacier surge, namely
the „Northern Inylchek“ type of glacier surge. The entire recent surge cycle lasted
for at least 100 years.
SIG
NIG
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Mapping the geology of moraines and mass movements, and dating geologic events by cosmogenic nuclides.
(Mathias Bichler, Martin Reindl, Hermann Häusler, Jürgen Reitner, Susan Ivy-Ochs, 2011- 2013)
Dynamics of a Younger-Dryas Glacier System in the Sonnblick Region
(Austrian Central Alps) framed by Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal Landslides
Durchgangwald Landslide
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies
Two weeks before our workshop an outburst of glacier lake Tez Tor in Ala Archa National
Park south of Bishkek occurred. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations informed
the local population in time.
Bishkek Workshop 13-17 August, 2012
Askar Kutanov (CAREN)
Bolot Moldobekov (CAIAG)
Michal Černý (Geomin)
Stefan Reisenhofer (ZAMG)
Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter
Martin Hölzle (Fribourg)
Kanayim Teshebaeva (CAIAG)
Diethard Leber (UNIVIE)
Rahima Adieva (Bishkek)
Helicopter Excursion
Field Work
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard-mapping
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard-mapping
HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):
Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards
Manual for geohazard-mapping
Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
Mass balance diagram of Storglaciären
Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
Stakeholder
Arabaev-University, Institute of Geography, Bishkek (Dr. Rahima Adieva)
Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, Bishkek (CAIAG; Dr. Bolot
Moldobekov)
Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Dr. Jörn Lauterjung)
Geomin, Ilhava, Czech Republic (Dr. Michal Cerny)
Kyrgyz National University, Bishkek (Dr. Murataly Duishinakunov)
Kyrgyz-Russian-Slavic University, Bishkek (Department of Meteorology, Ecology
& Environment Protection: Dr. Inna Brusenskaja)
Ministry of Emergency Situations, Bishkek
Ministry of Natural Resources, Bishkek (Dr. Sergei Erokhin)
National Academy of Sciences, Bishkek (Central Asian Research and Education
Network; Dr. Askar Kutanov)
National Information Center, Bishkek (Almaz Bakenov)
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Department of Gegraphy, Dr. Bulat
Mavlyudov)
State Agency of Hydrometeorology, Bishkek (Itibaev Sagyndykovich)
United Nations Development Programme, Bishkek (UNDP: Environment and
Disaster Risk Management)
University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho (Department of Geography: Dr. Vladimr
Aizen)
University of Tashkent, Uzbekistan (Dr. Gleb Glazirin)
World Glacier Monitoring, University of Fribourg (Department of Geosciences: Dr.
Martin Hölzle)
New Paper on Gottfried Merzbacher
20.3.1907
Résumé of EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation
strategies in the European Alps and in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia
- Modelling the climate–glacier behaviour in the Austrian Alps and in the Tien
Shan for 1950-2010 & calculation of future scenarios until 2050 based on
climatological data, reanalysis data (NCEP), future scenario data (ECHAM5), remote
sensing data & DEM data.
- Detailed field investigations on glacier change in the Northern and Central Tien Shan
(Kirgistan), and in the Central Austrian Alps.
- Risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods, of glacier surges, of mass movements
following glacier retreat as well as neotectonic processes in the Northern and Central
Tien Shan, and design of mitigation strategies in the Kyrgyz Republic.
- Strong stakeholder involvement in the Kyrgyz Republic as well as in the Central Austrian
Alps.
Stakeholder
Austrian Ministry of Science & Research
(37.590/0001-II/4/2010)
Acknowledgements
We thank you for your attention!
EURAS-CLIMPACT
Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan
Mountains, Central Asia