Ecowarn osint refresher_draft17_feb12

ECOWARN Refresher Training On Open Source Intelligence

Module 1: OSINT Key Skills Review

ECOWARN Refresher Training on Open Source Intelligence and Risk Vulnerability

Contents:

1. Problem Restatement2. Collection Planning3. RSS Alerts4. Assignment


Problem Restatement

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• Definition

– A tool for examining the many facets of an analytical problem

– Best used at the start of a project or whenever the analyst hits a wall

– Can help identify the core issue of an analytic problem

– Can help focus or refine one’s analytic efforts

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Problem Restatement


The approach

– Paraphrase: Try to restate the problem without losing its original meaning

– 180 Degrees: Turn the problem on its head

– Broaden the focus: Take a big picture view of the problem. Go beyond the immediate and look for connections with other issues

– Narrow the focus: Is the problem too large? Can the issue be broken down further?

– Redirect the focus: If the problem appears to have no solution, that may be because the real problem is someplace else.

– Ask why: Use the “five whys” technique to get to the root cause of the problem

Source: M. D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit

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Problem Restatement


Method Problem Restatement (TBC)

Question How will water shortages affect the stability of West Africa over the coming decade?

Rephrase Will water shortages result in increased water conflict in West Africa over the next decade?

180 Degrees How will the stability of West Africa affect water availability in the coming decade?

Broaden the focus How will water shortages affect the stability of both West and North Africa over the coming decade?

Narrow the focus How will water shortages affect the stability of Niger in the coming decade?

Redirect the focus Will advances in desalination technologies improve West Africa’s prospects for stability?

Ask why Why would West Africa’s stability be affected by water shortages?Because shortages result in increased conflict within and across borders

Why do water related conflicts have such broad geographic scope?Because the flow of water cannot be contained

Source: M. D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit

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Problem Restatement


• Process

– Revisit the intelligence challenges you have identified using the problem restatement categories

– For each method of restatement, brainstorm additional questions or hypotheses that you would like to explore

– Consider the following:

• How has your understanding of the problem changed?

• Are you asking / answering the right question?

• Should your analysis be broadened, narrowed, or rephrased in any way?

Problem Restatement


• Operationalising the technique

– Conduct a problem restatement exercise at the start of every project or assignment, or when you hit a brick wall

– Relevant questions should be factored into your KITs and collection plans

• Visualising the technique

– The questions you chose to address should be detailed in your report’s terms of reference (ToR)

– Your analysis should follow logically from each question

– The results of your problem restatement exercise could feature as:

• An appendix to your report• A wiki-based mind map

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Problem Restatement


How will water shortages affect the stability of West Africa

over the coming decade

Driver Temporal scope

Primary issueImpact assessment

Forecast study

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Geographic focus

Problem Analysis


I keep six honest serving-men(They taught me all I knew);Their names are What and Why and WhenAnd How and Where and Who

Rudyard Kipling, The Just So Stories (1902)

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The 5W1H Formula


Who What When Where Why How

West African nations

Enduring water shortages

Now; over the next decade

Locally, nationally, regionally

Climate change, etc.

Declining crop yields, etc.

Who What When Where Why How

The Director Impact study on water shortages

Within one month

Policy planning committee

Determine policy responses

Open source research

The Information Problem

The Information Need

Adapted from L. Krizan, Intelligence Essentials for Everyone

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The 5W1H Formula


Collection and Task Planning

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• Collection plans are intended to:

– Articulate and clarify the customer’s information needs

– Develop and validate intelligence indicators

– Identify intelligence / knowledge gaps

– Identify and organise relevant sources

– Guide collection efforts by defining roles and responsibilities

– Minimise time spent finding irrelevant information

– Support analysts in developing inferences, testing assumptions, and separating facts (what is known) from opinions (hypotheses, etc.)

– Frame mental models on the topic area and support their evolution as more information becomes available

Collection Planning


• A collection plan can be as simple or as detailed as you wish (the more detailed, however, the more effective your search)

• Generally speaking, your plan should:

– Address the customer’s information needs– Identify what to collect (content, data types, etc.) – Outline the sources you wish to consult– List roles, responsibilities, deadlines etc.

Collection Planning


• Before you begin your search, check to see if someone already has the information you need

• During the collection process:

– Update your collection plan, ticking off closed gaps– Remind yourself of any hypotheses you may be working towards– Beware cognitive biases (e.g. recency, popularity, confirmation) – Know when you have enough, and when to stop– Verify!

• Remember: collection often requires multiple iterations before we are satisfied with the results

Collection Planning


• Smart collectors:

– Develop a portfolio of collection strategies and apply them as relevant

– Dedicate time and effort to maintaining source awareness

– Ensure they have sufficient “resource slack” to deal with the unexpected

– Are not afraid to admit their ignorance and ask for help

– Maintain a broad network of HUMINT contacts

– Share (because doing so enables trust and reciprocal sharing)

Collection Planning


Basic collection plan:

Info Requirements

Sources to Use

Keywords to Use

Deadline Collector

Incidents of piracy

ICC Incidents Database

Piracy, East Africa

By 1pm, 01/05/10

Chris Pallaris

Collection Planning


Detailed collection plan:

Issue / Indicator

Collection Method

Sources Keywords Deadline Format POC Comments

Official statements

OSINT Government ministries; broadcast media

Country X +Y, peace, aggression

Ongoing Daily situation report

C. Pallaris Include sources

Troop movements

HUMINT NGO staff, real-time media

Soldiers, movement, mobilization

Ongoing Daily situation report

C. Pallaris Verify all statements

Border flashpoints

GEOINT EU SATCEN, internet

Migration, Map, KMZ,

1pm: 01/05/10

KMZ file, graphics

C. Pallaris

Collection Planning


• When implementing the collection plan, ask yourself:

– Are you working according to the plan? If not, why not?

– Does the plan remain valid in light of new information?

– Are you on track and on schedule?

– For longer projects, are you taking time to evaluate the progress you and your team are making?

Collection Planning


Assignment

1. Download the assignment page and complete the 5 tasks listed.2. Submit your answers online to your tutor.

Technology

Ecowarn osint refresher_draft17_feb12