Changing Course:Building a Low Carbon

Transport Sector in Asia

Transforming TransportationTransforming TransportationJanuary 15, 2010January 15, 2010

Washington DC, USAWashington DC, USA

Jamie Leather Jamie Leather

Asian Development BankAsian Development Bank

THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEM

Vehicle growth projections

0

50

100

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200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific

Tota

l Veh

icle

s (in

mill

ions

)

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400

500

600

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800

Motorization Index (V/1000 P)

Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)

PRC

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2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific

Tota

l Veh

icle

s (in

mill

ions

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

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Motorization Index (V/1000 P)

Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific

Tota

l Veh

icle

s (in

mill

ions

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

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800

Motorization Index (V/1000 P)

Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)

Motorization Index

PRC

Transport Activity

Source: IEA, draft 2009

Transport Sector CO2 emissions

Rest of the World

81%

Asia19%

Rest of the World

69%Asia31%

20065,465 mil tons

20307,555 mil tons

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation

54% of increase in Asia

38% increase Worldwide

Transport Sector CO2 emissions

20065,465 mil tons

20307,555 mil tons

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation

Rest of the World

81%

India2%

Rest of Asia10%

PRC7%

Rest of the World

69%

Rest of Asia8%

India6%

PRC17%

A Crisis in Asian Transport

• Congestion costs 2-5% of Asian GDP• Road accidents cost 2-5% of Asian GDP• Energy use ~ 30% of World energy• Fuel security - US$50-150/barrel• CO2 - 23% from transport sector • Local pollution - respiratory health cost

Impacts Economic development Equitable access Quality of Life

THE SOLUTIONSTHE SOLUTIONS

A global 50% CO2 cut by 2050

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(G

t C

O2

/yr)

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 62

WEO 2007 450 ppm New ETP2008 analysis

Power

Industry

Buildings

Transport

IEA ETP 2008: Where reductions come from

Bellagio Principles on Bellagio Principles on Transportation and Climate Transportation and Climate

ChangeChange1.1. Effective Climate Action is Effective Climate Action is

incomplete without addressing the incomplete without addressing the overall system performance overall system performance of of the Transport Sector.the Transport Sector.

2.2. Climate action in the transport Climate action in the transport sector should recognize sector should recognize co-co-benefitsbenefits

3.3. More Effective Carbon finance More Effective Carbon finance mechanisms and associated mechanisms and associated procedures should procedures should catalyzecatalyze sustainable transport policies, sustainable transport policies, programs and projects programs and projects www.sutp.org/bellagio-declaration

Solutions for Sustainable Transport

Avoid Shift Improve

Avoid the need to travel

Shift to more efficient transport

modes

Improve fuel and vehicle technologies

A Sustainable Transport Path

Same Principles but Different Requirements

Principles Developed Countries

Developing Countries

Avoid Reduce travel through traffic demand management (TDM)

Avoid unnecessary generation of travel through land use planning, integrated land use and traffic management

Shift Shift from private vehicles to non-motorized transport and public transport

Shift investment focus to non-motorized transport, public transport and long-distance rail or water transport

Improve Clean up existing vehicles and fuels

Ensure that future vehicles are as clean as possible and improve attractiveness of public transport

Transport Co-Benefits

Pollution CO2 Congestion

Improve - reduce emissions per kilometer

Technology/ vehicle change +++ ++ ?

Behavioral change (Fleet mng, driver training)

++ + +

Fuel-switch (CNG, LPG, biofuels) ++ ? ?

Shift - reduce emissions per unit transported

Passenger transport:

Mode switch +++ ++ +++

Usage of larger units + + ++

Improved occupation rates ++ ++ ++

Freight transport ++ ++ ++

Avoid - reduce number of trips

Land-use – Behavioral change +++ +++ ++

TDM/TOD ++ +++ ++

Sustainable Transport Operational Plan

Focus Areas• Regional Transport Corridors• Urban Transport• Emissions Reduction and Energy Efficiency• Road Safety and Social Sustainability• Emerging areas (TOD, ITS, PPP, etc)

ADB lending (2004-2008)

Railw ays 15%

Multimodal Transport &

Sector Development

0%

Ports, Waterw ays, &

Shipping 4%

Civil Aviation 0%

Roads & Highw ays

81%

ADB lending (2009-2011)

air4%

water1%

rail17%

urban12%

road66%

$2 billion p.a.

$5 billion p.a.

Thank youThank you

Jamie LeatherJamie Leather

jleather@adb.orgjleather@adb.org

“Our Sustainable Transport Initiative will make more cities more ‘people-friendly’ and advance climate change mitigation objectives.”

Haruhiko KurodaHaruhiko Kuroda

President, Asian Development BankPresident, Asian Development Bank

2009 Delhi Sustainable Development Summit2009 Delhi Sustainable Development Summit