Changing Course:Building a Low Carbon
Transport Sector in Asia
Transforming TransportationTransforming TransportationJanuary 15, 2010January 15, 2010
Washington DC, USAWashington DC, USA
Jamie Leather Jamie Leather
Asian Development BankAsian Development Bank
THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEM
Vehicle growth projections
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific
Tota
l Veh
icle
s (in
mill
ions
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Motorization Index (V/1000 P)
Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)
PRC
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50
100
150
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350
400
450
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific
Tota
l Veh
icle
s (in
mill
ions
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Motorization Index (V/1000 P)
Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035
ASEAN (Major Countries) China INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific
Tota
l Veh
icle
s (in
mill
ions
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Motorization Index (V/1000 P)
Total Vehicles (in millions)- (Left Axis) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (Right Axis)
Motorization Index
PRC
Transport Activity
Source: IEA, draft 2009
Transport Sector CO2 emissions
Rest of the World
81%
Asia19%
Rest of the World
69%Asia31%
20065,465 mil tons
20307,555 mil tons
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation
54% of increase in Asia
38% increase Worldwide
Transport Sector CO2 emissions
20065,465 mil tons
20307,555 mil tons
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008Note: Total emissions excludes international marine bunkers and international aviation
Rest of the World
81%
India2%
Rest of Asia10%
PRC7%
Rest of the World
69%
Rest of Asia8%
India6%
PRC17%
A Crisis in Asian Transport
• Congestion costs 2-5% of Asian GDP• Road accidents cost 2-5% of Asian GDP• Energy use ~ 30% of World energy• Fuel security - US$50-150/barrel• CO2 - 23% from transport sector • Local pollution - respiratory health cost
Impacts Economic development Equitable access Quality of Life
THE SOLUTIONSTHE SOLUTIONS
A global 50% CO2 cut by 2050
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10
20
30
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50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
O2
/yr)
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 62
WEO 2007 450 ppm New ETP2008 analysis
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
IEA ETP 2008: Where reductions come from
Bellagio Principles on Bellagio Principles on Transportation and Climate Transportation and Climate
ChangeChange1.1. Effective Climate Action is Effective Climate Action is
incomplete without addressing the incomplete without addressing the overall system performance overall system performance of of the Transport Sector.the Transport Sector.
2.2. Climate action in the transport Climate action in the transport sector should recognize sector should recognize co-co-benefitsbenefits
3.3. More Effective Carbon finance More Effective Carbon finance mechanisms and associated mechanisms and associated procedures should procedures should catalyzecatalyze sustainable transport policies, sustainable transport policies, programs and projects programs and projects www.sutp.org/bellagio-declaration
Solutions for Sustainable Transport
Avoid Shift Improve
Avoid the need to travel
Shift to more efficient transport
modes
Improve fuel and vehicle technologies
A Sustainable Transport Path
Same Principles but Different Requirements
Principles Developed Countries
Developing Countries
Avoid Reduce travel through traffic demand management (TDM)
Avoid unnecessary generation of travel through land use planning, integrated land use and traffic management
Shift Shift from private vehicles to non-motorized transport and public transport
Shift investment focus to non-motorized transport, public transport and long-distance rail or water transport
Improve Clean up existing vehicles and fuels
Ensure that future vehicles are as clean as possible and improve attractiveness of public transport
Transport Co-Benefits
Pollution CO2 Congestion
Improve - reduce emissions per kilometer
Technology/ vehicle change +++ ++ ?
Behavioral change (Fleet mng, driver training)
++ + +
Fuel-switch (CNG, LPG, biofuels) ++ ? ?
Shift - reduce emissions per unit transported
Passenger transport:
Mode switch +++ ++ +++
Usage of larger units + + ++
Improved occupation rates ++ ++ ++
Freight transport ++ ++ ++
Avoid - reduce number of trips
Land-use – Behavioral change +++ +++ ++
TDM/TOD ++ +++ ++
Sustainable Transport Operational Plan
Focus Areas• Regional Transport Corridors• Urban Transport• Emissions Reduction and Energy Efficiency• Road Safety and Social Sustainability• Emerging areas (TOD, ITS, PPP, etc)
ADB lending (2004-2008)
Railw ays 15%
Multimodal Transport &
Sector Development
0%
Ports, Waterw ays, &
Shipping 4%
Civil Aviation 0%
Roads & Highw ays
81%
ADB lending (2009-2011)
air4%
water1%
rail17%
urban12%
road66%
$2 billion p.a.
$5 billion p.a.
Thank youThank you
Jamie LeatherJamie Leather
[email protected]@adb.org
“Our Sustainable Transport Initiative will make more cities more ‘people-friendly’ and advance climate change mitigation objectives.”
Haruhiko KurodaHaruhiko Kuroda
President, Asian Development BankPresident, Asian Development Bank
2009 Delhi Sustainable Development Summit2009 Delhi Sustainable Development Summit