Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?

Issues for discussion

Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?

Centre for Science and Environment

New Delhi, December 10, 2007

Diesel and air quality challenge……

2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap

On fuel qualityIntroduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers

On vehicle technologyEnforced Bharat staae II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005)

On alternative fuelsImplemented largest ever CNG programmeLargest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas

Other measuresCapped the number of three-wheelersPhased out 15 year old commercial vehiclesStrengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC)Efforts made to bypass transit trafficSet up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration

It made a difference…avoided huge amount of pollution

PM10 at ITO Traff ic Intersection

0

100

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600

Mic

rogr

amm

e pe

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P M10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions

P M10 trend P ost Supreme Court directions

Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward

Source: Teri

RSPM

0

60

120

180

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rogr

am/ c

ubic

met

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2002

2003

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2006

NOx levels: rising steadily

Source: Teri

NOx

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10

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50

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rog

ram

/ cu

bic

me

tre

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre

24

8

14

5

10

8

10

7

74 9

7

39

31 46

13

1

69

3

34

4

75

4

28

4

13

4

65

7

66

42

13

8

24

3

0

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800

Ja

nu

ary

Fe

bru

ary

Ma

rch

Ap

ril

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

gu

st

Se

pte

mb

er

Oc

tob

er

mic

rog

ram

/ cu

bic

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tre

Monthly average

Monthly maximum

Proposed 24-hourlystandard

PM2.5: ITO 2007Very high levels of PM2.5 during winter months. Frequent violation of

CPCB’s proposed 24-hourly standard of 60 microgram per cubic meter

Winter of 2007.

Source: Teri

240.5

338.1

104070

100130160190220250280310340

Aug 07 - Oct 07

mic

rogr

am/c

ubic

met

re

PM2.5 NO2 SO2

Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007)

India: Proliferating hotspotsMore than half of the cities monitored record critical

levels of PM10

96

70

4

30

19

23

57

10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SO2 NO2 PM10

Num

ber

of c

ities

in p

er c

ent

Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre)

Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)

Air Quality Classification:

0102030405060708090

In m

icro

gra

mm

e p

er

cu

bic

me

tre

2000 20012002 20032004 Standard for residential areas

NOx levels: rising trend in some cities

Health burden

• Pollution level of 1991-92: World Bank estimated 7,491 premature deaths in Delhi.

• As PM10 drops between 1993 and 2002, World Bank estimates saving of 3,629 lives per year.

•2006-07: Levels are up again. We are yet to estimate the death toll today. It could be rising again.

-- Even an increase of only 10 microgramme/cu m of PM2.5 leads to significant increases in health risks. High exposure increase hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis, heart damage and lung cancer. 

-- 65% of Delhites have impaired lung function (CNCI 2004)

-- 26% of Delhiites have undergone chromosomal damage due to air pollution that can be precursor to cancer (CNCI study 2004-05)

Unsustainable:

Nearly 4.5 million registered vehicles. Still adding nearly 1000 a day

Source: Teri

231333

564 580

308

654

963 994

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cars Tw o w heelers Total privatevehicles

Total vehicles(private

+commercial)

Num

ber

of v

ehic

les

2000-01 2005-06

Vehicle numbers and pollution

Vehicle registrations

1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

milli

ons

*fiscal year

Three fold increase since 1991

Delhi NO2 trend

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45

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

mic

rogr

am p

er c

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60

No.

of V

eh. i

n la

khs

Res. Areas Ind. Areas No. of Veh

Vehicular growth correlates strongly with rising NOx levels. But CO levels delinked

ITO: CO 1996 - 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

conc

entra

tion

in m

illigr

am/c

um

Average concentration8-hourly standard: 2 milligram/cum

DieselisedDiesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Num

bers

Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van

Agency Red alert on diesel exhaust

US EPA (2002)

Likely human carcinogen

CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant

HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer

NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen

IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen

WHO IPCS (1996)

Probable human carcinogen

1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car sales2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales

Hidden subsidies and costs….

The lower price of diesel, tax sops leads to increasing use of “poor” person’s fuel by the rich car owners.

The 2006 Union budget made the link between tax cuts and small diesel cars more explicit. The government defined small cars as one with length not exceeding 4,000 mm with an engine capacity not exceeding 1200 cc for petrol cars and 1500 cc for diesel cars. Diesel car prices dropped and sales rocketed since……

High exposure

• Vehicle emissions contribute significantly to human exposure. Higher health impacts close to traffic areas and roads.

– In three cities among six cities reviewed by the World Bank shows that vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure.

– The WHO report of 2005 Health effects of transport-related air pollution weighed in that epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing.

DIESELISED AIRDiesel’s contribution to ambient PM2.5

levels

Our questions today?

Diesel Car (PM norm)

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0.01

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km

EuropeJapanUSA

Diesel Car (NOx norm)

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mm

e p

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km

EUJapanUSA

Indian metros today (Euro III)

Are we getting ‘clean’ diesel?

License to pollute?

One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.45

Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc)

Tox

ics

(gm

/km

)

Post 2005 Models NOx emissions

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (g

m/k

m)

135

140

145

150155

160

165

170

175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

“New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth?Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics;

Overwhelms the CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off

NOxNOx PMPM

ToxicsToxics CO2CO2

Toxicity of diesel emissions?

Source: MP Walsh

But aren’t diesel cars increasing in Europe? Why should we worry?...

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Belgium France Germany Italy Norway Spain Switzerland UnitedKingdom

Total

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Ist 6month)

Europe:Europe: Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe Share of diesel cars in new sales in Western Europe

European cities are violating air quality standards: NO2 levels strongly corelate with PM2.5 in European cities

UK distance driven, fuel use and emissions from private car transport: 1996-2005

•Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by 6% as a result of improvements in efficiency.

•Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the same period, mainly because of increasing distances travelled by car, which rose by 10%.

•PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and 2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3% … the improvements offset by an increase in the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars.

Can diesel help to meet both air quality and climate goals? What about rebound effect?......

Source: The environment in your pocket 2007, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. UK Govt.

What is clean diesel?

Source: ICCT

More questions: What about ultrafines?Particle numbers of different Engines

Source: Ricardo

Sulphur block: How soon can our refineries supply clean diesel?

-- Some refineries are more capable, can produce cleaner fuels at competitive costs

0 1 2 3 4 5

Reliance

IOCL, Panipat

NRL

IOCL, Gujarat

MRPL

IOCL, Haldia

IOCL, Mathura

CPCL, Chennai

HPCL, Mumbai

HPCL, Vaiskh

IOCL, Barauni

KRL, Kochi

BRPL

BPCL, Mumbai

IOCL, Guwahati

IOCL, Digboi

Cost in Rs/litre for BIS 2000 to Euro III

Incremental Incremental production production

cost of cost of meeting meeting Euro III Euro III

diesel from diesel from BIS 2000 BIS 2000

level (Auto level (Auto Fuel Policy Fuel Policy

2002)2002)

Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002Source: Auto Fuel Policy 2002Source: Trans Energy Associates, USASource: Trans Energy Associates, USA

The future roadmap?

How soon can we have clean uniform norms across the country?

How soon can we leapfrog to Euro V/VI?

Investments are happening today. Link them with clean standards.

Poor correlation between smoke opacity and PM mass emissions. There can be a risk of misclassifying polluters – Low smoke emissions can also mean high PM emissions!

What about in-use NOx?Source: P Anyon et al 2002, Proposed diesel national environment protection measure project 2, Phase 2- vehicle testing, emissions performance testing of 80 in-service diesel vehicles, evaluation & short test protocols, report prepared for Environment Australia, Parsons Australia Pvt Ltd, Queensland, Austraila

Even in-use emissions regulation is difficult.Do we have effective solutions?

B. Diesel light duty vehicles

Diesel light motor vehicles

0

20

40

60

80

100

Models of different years

HS

U

Smoke opacity tests ineffective. Vulnerable to fraud.

Is retrofitting in-use diesel vehicles a solution?

Clean fuel is an opportunity for using advanced emissions control systems to reduce in-use diesel emissions …..

How to design these programmes well for best impact?

Need good regulations and enforcement.

Pune retrofitment project……..

Can we find fiscal solutions?

Fiscal brakes on conventional diesel: Equalise taxes on diesel and petrol? Higher taxes on diesel cars to offset the incentive for fuel? –

Currently huge losses of revenue per litre of diesel fuel used to drive a car vis vis petrol.

Fiscal measures to speed up clean diesel fuel supply? Capital subsidy for refineries? Surcharge on fuel to create funds to clean up fuels? Etc.

Need clear answers and solutions. Or restrict diesel cars.

Thank You