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Attribution AnalysisData Driven Model
SMX 2014Yehoshaphat Schellekens
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Where to credit the sale???
Click stream of conversions
among different segments
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Introduction
Why Attribution?
• “I only advertise on search, why do I need to investigate attribution?”
• “What are the actionable insights you can do with attribution analysis?”
• “what does an attribution analysis/model look like?”
• “I’m not a mathematical person, how can I still use attribution?“ (Visualization)
• “In which cases could attribution save me money?”
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Possible Segments For Attribution
Possible for SEM, SEO & content but also for:
• In-channel SEM: Brand vs. non-brand
• Day of week segments (people search on weekends and buy during the beginning of the week)
• Different type of Keywords (Some keywords tend to lead to others)
• Different devices (if possible)
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Attribution for Re-pricing Segments
• In most cases:• ~ 5%-15% difference in attributed sales compared to
last click sales• More granularity = more attribution
32%
45%
23%
Sales (Using Last click)
BrandNon BrandSEO
38%39%
23%
Sales (Using attribution Model)
BrandNon BrandSEO
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Media Re-pricing• Conventional wisdom: Non Brand drives brand
• But not alwaysAttributed CPS: lower than last
click CPS
Cost Per Sale
MSN syndication Brand
Google syndication Brand
MSN Brand
Google Brand
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Re-pricing – Tier 2 publishers• Tier 2 publishers typically have more
attribution with Google/Bing/Yahoo
• Example :
Ozone Media Quantcast Casale Media Accordant Media
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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Last click modelAttribution resultsSale Count
Could be up to 50% difference!
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Visualization: click count vs. CR
Highest difference in Conversion Rate -> in Second click
Conversion Rate
Click Count
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Visualization:Flow from click 1 to click 2.
Different segments
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Visualization : Click Path
Hour of day
Each blue line: full path of a searcher who clicked six times
In this account, searchers who started in the same hour kept on searching in that hour
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Researchers VS. Transactional
• Some segments are In a state of purchasing while others are conduction research
• Find segments that click differently!
Dark bars: faster deciders
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Conclusions• Evaluate as many segments as possible
• Important Visualization:– Click count vs. sale count & click count vs. CR (sales/clicks)– Sankey plot (flow of clicks)
• Try to detect:– Searchers who need further information – Searchers who want to get the product now.
• Tracking:– Important to have tracking system, for visitors & all click to sale data, such as:
• DSMM/ DS3/ other click tracking platforms
• Save money, mainly in the following cases:– +10%/-10% of performance change, will make a big difference.– Large proportion of Tier 2 publishers.