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Our monthly guide to the economic and emotional mood of the nation.
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2011
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
November 2011.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 21st -25th November 2011 inclusive.
3 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Oct‘11 42% Nov‘11 57%
Oct’11 31% Nov’11 24%
Oct’11 25% Nov’11 17%
Oct’11 2% Nov’11 2%
Oct’11 0% Nov’11 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
November 2011 saw a sharp deterioration in perceptions about the economy vs. October:
4 Economic Recovery Index
The Stages of Recovery
November 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
The economic situation in
Ireland is bad & getting
worse
55% 57% 40% 55% 57% 69% 58%
The economic situation is
bad but has stabilized 25% 22% 32% 24% 23% 18% 20%
The economic situation is
bad but showing a few
signs of improvement
17% 18% 22% 16% 17% 10% 19%
The economic situation is
getting better and showing
clear signs of improvement
3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1%
The economic situation is
good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
In November 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell to its lowest level since late 2010:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
6 Economic Recovery Index
34%41%44% 42%43%
46%48%41%43%
52%
41% 42% 43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26% 18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%
23%26%24%26%26%23%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62%55%
51%
51%
61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46% 44%33%
41%48%
44%48%47%
53%47%48%48%47%49%
42%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
7 Economic Recovery Index
48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46%
45% 45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%
47%
46%41% 41%
32% 34%39% 37% 36% 39% 40%
34%39%
34% 38% 38%34%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56%
52%
56% 55%53% 55%
53% 51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50%44%
49% 46% 49% 45%45%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
8 Economic Recovery Index
43% 43% 42%46%
35%40% 39%
30%35% 36%
33%28% 27%
14%18%
25%
20%
21% 17%25%
20% 16%11%
16% 15% 13%
Oct '0
9
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 3
22%
22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%
20%
20% 21% 21%18%
20%13%
15%
18%
17%
17%
17%
21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18%
Oct '0
9
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
9 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: November 2009, 2010, 2011 & October 2011
16% 11% 14% 16%
Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
62%53%
59% 59%
Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
27% 24% 22% 26%
Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
28% 30%23% 23%
Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 62%50% 54% 55%
Nov'09 Nov'10 Oct'11 Nov'11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
10 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
11 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
12 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 3
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2011
All Adults Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Enjoyment 53% 55% 52% 50% 48% 45% 55% 65%
Happiness 50% 48% 52% 59% 49% 45% 47% 49%
Stress 48% 45% 52% 61% 54% 58% 44% 30%
Worry 45% 44% 46% 51% 52% 49% 47% 31%
Anxiety 34% 33% 36% 39% 38% 41% 28% 28%
Boredom 28% 30% 27% 50% 33% 24% 21% 17%
Pain 24% 23% 26% 23% 22% 25% 27% 25%
Sadness 21% 18% 24% 32% 21% 26% 19% 13%
Anger 18% 19% 18% 21% 27% 26% 13% 7%
Fear 12% 12% 13% 13% 19% 14% 7% 7%
Source: Amárach Research, November 2011
13 Economic Recovery Index
What Next?
Our Economic Recovery Index points to a
worrying deterioration in Irish people’s outlook on
the economy.
We have also seen a further increase in
‘negative emotions’ such as stress and worry,
continuing the trend in recent months..
All this points to a very challenging environment
for Irish businesses going into 2012, especially
those serving the domestic consumer market.
But the recession is not evenly distributed – as
evidenced by the marked differences by age
(and sometimes gender) in relation to both the
outlook for the economy and people’s emotional
well-being.
Stay tuned for future updates as we enter 2012...
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international clients.
Our team of 30 research & support staff have
worked with most of Ireland’s top 200
companies. Every year we survey over
100,000 people at home and abroad, as well
as running hundreds of focus groups.
Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique
field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
Amárach Research is proud to be:
Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch