1. QuantifyingRiskForInnovationTeams Sam McAfee Neo Innovation

2. Scenario San Francisco, 2011 Real estate company in a revenue crunch The Goal: Mobile application for service professionals 3. Team Cross-functional Product, Design, Engineering Co-located and dedicated to the project Agile experience, and reading The Lean Startup 4. Project Customer Interviews MVP Release Frequent Iterations 5. Results $300 app 5000 local professionals 50% market penetration 6. Assessment Cost of user acquisition Fixed costs payroll, support, overhead Market limits and revenue growth plateaus User retention rates, and life-time-value per user 7. Solutions Monte Carlo Simulation Cost of Delay Scenarios Lean Canvas Value Dynamics Model 8. Questions?