100% Internet Access:

Balancing Risk and Reward

Steve Song@stevesong iWeek 2013

iWeek 2009

iWeek 2011

Cape Town TVWS Pilot

Stages of Truth

1. This is worthless nonsense (2009)

2. This is an interesting, but perverse, point of view (2011)

3. This is true, but quite unimportant (2013)

4. I always said so. (2014?)

J. B. S. Haldane (1892-1964)

Predictability

2009

African Undersea Cables

2014

On PredictabilityPreviously Unimportant

Mobile phones

WiFi

Mobile Broadband

Tablets

Dynamic Spectrum

Previously Important

WiMax

ISDN

ATM

Antifragility

Nassim NicolasTaleb

The opposite of fragile is not

tough or robust or

bulletproof. It is something

that grows stronger when

stressed.

Antifragile

So what kinds of things are Antifragile?

Netflix isAnti-

fragile

The Unlicensed Antifragile Ecosystem

Distribution of Android smartphone-originated traffic across cellular and Wi-Fi networks, Jan 2013

Wi-Fi delivers over three-quarters of all UK smartphone data

Maslow’sHierarchyOf Needs(revised)

Skin in the game

Influence and Personal Risk – a Disconnect

"At no point in history have so

many non-risk-takers,

that is, those with no personal

exposure, exerted so much control."-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Shuttleworth FoundationFellowship

“skin in the

game”

Predictability

Antifragility

Skin in the game

Imag

e C

r ed i

ts

Prism, Dawn Light Sanctuary by Ingrid Truemperhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/ingridt/5551456055/BY SA

Telephone Box by Vissagohttp://www.flickr.com/photos/vissago/4249091962/BY NC

Antenna Setup by Razvan Calimanhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/tsk/2760922792/#BY

Fibre Optic Sensors by PNNLhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/pnnl/3638446385/BY NC SA

Reserved ParkingLicensed from iStockPhotohttp://www.istockphoto.com

Cat skeleton by Jeremy Yoderhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/jbyoder/3922970655/BY NC

Mark Shuttleworthhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/trancept/4141285197/sizes/t/in/photostream/BY NC SA

SAA A340 by Aero Icarushttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/46423105@N03/6091150164/BY SA