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1COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Driving the Broadband ChallengeDavid Eckard, CTO, Fixed Networks DivisionNovember 2015
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.2
DRIVING THE BROADBAND CHALLENGEWHEN VEHICLE SHOPPING, WHAT DO WE LOOK FOR?
THE HIGHEST PERFORMANCE ?(bandwidth, latency, availability, programmability etc.)
THE LOWEST COST ?(capex, opex, inc. energy etc.)
THE MOST FUTURE PROOF ?(ready for the next big thing )
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.3
DRIVING THE BROADBAND CHALLENGEA need for more carrying capacity
A NEED FOR MORE CAPACITY WHAT WE WANT TO
DRIVEBUT …
WHAT IS PRACTICAL
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.4
+ +++FTTB
FTTN
ADSL
FTTH
FTTdp
2011 Deployment Strategy 2011 Exploring
WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING (2011 Model Year)?Multi-technology broadband is a mass market reality
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.5
+ + + + + + + + ++ + + +
+ + + + + + + ++ + + + + +
FTTB
FTTN
ADSL
FTTH
FTTdp
2015 Strategy Extension 2015 Exploring++2011 Deployment Strategy 2011 Exploring
WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING (2015 Model Year)?Multi-technology broadband is a mass market reality
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.6
10Gbps
2Gbps
10Gbps
WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING? Gigabit is a Broadband Marketing Weapon
10Gbps
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.7
WHERE IS OUR VEHICLE TAKING US?Predicting based on where we have come from
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3
SERVICES4Source: Jakob Nielsen: http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/
1 Gb/sStart of gigabit race
Vectoringand G.fast
Dial-up modem
10 Gb/s 2Gbps
FTTH10Gbps
?
Or does the per subscriber peak bandwidth saturate?
Is this a self fulfilling prophecy?
Robert K. Merton
“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true.”
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.8
WHERE IS OUR VEHICLE TAKING US?Aggressive Bottom’s Up View
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3
SERVICES4 10
100
1000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Band
wid
th d
eman
d (M
b/s)
Total subscriber bandwidth demand evolution
Sustained +very fast 1 GB file transfers
Sustained +very fast 100 MB file transfers
Sustained +very fast 10 MB file transfers
Sustained + web browsing, web SW apps
Sustained demand only
e.g. download HD movie in 30 sec.
e.g. download 5-min HD video in 10s
e.g. download photo or song in <1 sec.
VIDEO THE DOMINANT COMPONENT OF SUSTAINED BANDWIDTH
Sustained demand includes OTT and managed IPTV
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.9
WHAT DOES OUR VEHICLE COST?Costs to deploy a new network FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3
SERVICES4
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.10
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3
SERVICES4
HOW DO WE PAY FOR OUR VEHICLE?Different Scenarios for Deployment
Source: Bell Labs ConsultingMajor Western European operator (1 million premises model)
FTTN SOLVES THE BUSINESS CASE FOR FTTP
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.11
HOW MUCH HORSEPOWER DO WE HAVE? Ubiquitous coverage with Copper
Distance [m]
Aggregate bitrate [Mbps]
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
3 LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE
SERVICES4
TIME
COVERAGE
100%
G.Fast• Support FTTH-like speeds
• Extension of FTTH
• Possible LowerOPEX
FTTN VDSL / V.PLUS
• Short ROI• Generate revenue
• Fund DEEP FIBER
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.12
WHAT ARE WE GOING TO CARRY IN OUR VEHICLE?TRENDS THAT ARE CHANGING SERVICES AND OUR INDUSTRY
MEETING DEMAND1
INVESTMENT2
LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3
SERVICES4
INTERNET OF THINGS
Reliable Transport
TRANSFORMPRESENCE
High Capacity BW to
Drive New Services
NfV, SDN
Abstraction and
Simplification in
Multi PHY Environmen
t
5G
Fixed Network is Backhaul
CLOUD
Applications hosted in the Network
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.13
UBIQUITOUS BROADBANDPerformance
Create Ubiquitous High Performance Connectivity Create a “Tool Kit” of different technologies for diverse topologies
Longer term push for deeper fiber for high performance and lower OPEX
Coverage Accelerate deployment utilizing existing infrastructure
Maximize ubiquitous and widespread coverage
sPEED Meet the needs of your customers for ubiquitous broadband
ITS ABOUT PRACTICALITY
COPYRIGHT © 2015 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.14