04 kathrin goldammer eu towards a green economy

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 1

Dr. Kathrin Goldammer Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. (IASS)

The German Energiewende

15 May, 2013 for the DI Annual Conference


Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)

The “Plattform Energiewende”, TPEC in short, was launched in March 2012 by the Institute of Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany, taking on the suggestions of the Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply.

www.plattform-energiewende.org


The German Energy Transition in a Nutshell

A long history …   The concept and the term “Energiewende” was first coined already in 1980

(Öko-Institut)

  Two main elements: exit from nuclear power, entry into renewable energies

  A feed-in tariff system for renewables first introduced in 1991

  Government decisions in 2000-2002: nuclear phase-out extending into the 2020s and introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

  New energy concept under the current government in September 2010: extension of nuclear operating times combined with ambitious goals for emission reduction, share of renewables and energy efficiency


The German Energy Transition in a Nutshell

… and the Fukushima shock in March 2011:   Immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants and appointment

of an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply; final report “Deutschlands Energiewende – Ein Gemeinschaftswerk für die Zukunft” in May, government decision in June 2011: nuclear exit by 2022

The Energiewende is more than just a nuclear exit: a complete transformation of the energy system with an extensive legislative package and ambitious targets for the coming decades:   Greenhouse gas emissions: 2020 -40%, 2050 -80% (reference year 1990)   Renewables 2050: 60% of energy consumed, 80% of electricity produced   Consumption 2050: primary energy -50%, electricity -25 % (ref. 2008)

All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account: security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability


German Energy System Facts, Part I: 600 TWh Production

Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen

Annual gross electricity production, including electricity exports, shows regulation changes, the course of the economy, the weather – and the Energiewende.

Renewables Mineral Oil Hard Coal Lignite Gas Nuclear

Others


German Energy System Facts, Part II: Already 20+% RES

Renewable energy production has increased steadily and accounts for 22%-share of electricity consumption in 2012; the goal for 2020 being at least 35%. The Federal Ministry of the Economy names the investment sum in renewables as 23 billion Euros in 2011 (“Monitoringbericht Energie der Zukunft 2012”).

Source: Federal Ministry of the Environment BMU

2020 target is 35%


German Energy System Facts, Part III: Technology Faves

Natural Gas

Hard Coal

Nuclear

Lignite

Others Solar PV

Hydro

Biomass

Wind, mainly onshore

Renewable Energies in Total


German Energy System Facts, Part IV: Overcapacity

When it comes to security of supply, Germany is traditionally well equipped and highly stable; the installed capacity – especially from conventional power generation - is still massive. The policy question here is: what are their incentives to stay connected to the grid and ready to produce?

Renewables All fossils incl. large hydro Nuclear

Source: BNetzA


German Energy System Facts, Part V: Price Effects

German wholesale electricity market prices are are steadily decreasing due to low carbon prices, decreasing global coal prices and greater renewable shares with zero marginal costs. Base calender year 2014, below, now trades at the historically low prices of 38 EUR/MWh. How will that refinance investments in new and flexible generation?

Source: EEX.de


German Energy System Facts, Part VI: Regional Differences

Nuclear Fossils Renewables

Source: BNetzA

The installed capacity in GW differs greatly among the German states; renewables differ in technology. The renewables energies surcharge “EEG-Umlage” is a nationwide addition to the energy bill for every electricity consumer with exemptions for parts of the industry. Grid charges differ regionally. Accordingly, net benefits and costs are not equally allocated; an inequality debate is thriving.


Policy issues discussed alongside the Energiewende

Numerous policy and regulation issues are discussed in Germany right now, the most prominent being:   Production incentives and market design: Renewables at zero marginal

costs and a cost-based merit-order market. How do they go together?

  Security of supply incentives and capacity markets: Conventional power plant run-times decrease. How do they stay connected?

  Participation and social equity issues: What’s the Energiewende balance? How can green-green conflicts (e.g. grid extension due to renewable installation) and collective efforts be harmonized? This also goes for energy efficiency incentives: not only a burden but great economic potential.

  EU conflicts: Is Germany offering illegal subsidies for renewables and the industry? New policy designs need to align with EU regulation.


The Energiewende Potential – Nationally and Globally

  Sustainability and climate protection with reduced dependancy on energy imports

  Decoupling of emissions and growth – if one of the leading economies in the world succeeds in this, others are more likely to follow

  A leading role in the growing global market of energy and environmental technologies

  Job creation at home and massive business opportunities for the industry

… and after all, the transformation to the most advanced energy infrastructure in the world. The Future made in Germany?


Many thanks for your attention!

www.iass-potsdam.de

Dr. Kathrin Goldammer, head of „Plattform Energiewende“ at the IASS [email protected]