Top Secrets NFL Betting

No. 1 ranked football handicapper unveils 2013 NFL early watchlist

NFL Vegas Odds

As we continue to preach, offseason research is of enormous consequence to sports handicapping, but one must be more than adaptable enough to adjust as the season progresses to be a sports betting champ.

With that in mind, here are some early probable edges we have on our radar screen, yet subject to change as the facts guide us.

NFL Betting Fact

Quarterbacks facing burden of higher expectations: Cam Newton proved to be the rule rather than the exception. Last year he demonstrated to be a great go-against following up a splendid debut.

One of our Golden Rules of Gambling is that it is easier to be the hunter than the hunted. Quarterbacks who we anticipate to have negative spread records based on that theory: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III (though his injury recovery warrants more monitoring), Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson.

2013 Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles will struggle early, but may improve rapidly: One who has often puts my neck out on the line, yet I did use the qualifier “may improve.” This is a great example of my how my position must evolve with the evidence.

Whether or not Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly will make a successful transition to the NFL is highly debatable. Under the best possible scenario, there will be growing pains. This is exacerbated by the fact he is pass happy and his quarterback situation is highly questionable. The secondary is revamped and his front seven stars are better suited for a 4-3 rather than the 3-4 Kelly will likely utilize.

Offshore Betting Tip

Matt Barkley will take over as starting QB before the year is out. Expect for Philly to struggle early, lose value, and then play their best football of the year against the scores and odds when the undervalued signal caller takes over.

Buffalo Bills Preview

Fall in and out of love with Buffalo: The Bills are certainly not the only team breaking in a new coaching staff. However, the roster and scheme upheaval is as much as any team in recent years.

Anticipate them to take the preseason very seriously, build up false expectations, and fall flat once the regular season starts.

Green Bay Packers Odds

Green Bay will run a lot in preseason: We preach time and time again, handicapping totals is much more about pace than offense and defensive competence. The Packers are set at QB, but have a deep group of RBs battling for roster spots.

Expect a lot more ball control than usual from them in the exhibition games.

Vegas NFL Tips

False hope in Arizona: Sure Carson Palmer is the best QB the Cardinals have had since Kurt Warner retired, but that is like being the tallest midget in the circus. Like Jeff George, Palmer can keep changing his uniform, yet he still remains grossly overrated.

With little talent at RB, look for their offensive line to get scapegoated for a terrible offense. However, Larry Fitzgerald is without question the one bright spot. Watch for Arizona to be feast or famine. They will get points off the big play, but will be grossly inconsistent, continually putting the defense back on the field knows the best NFL handicapper.

Handicapper Secrets

Titans worst or first: Tennessee running back Chris Johnson was materializing to be the poster child of how NFL running backs shelf lives are getting shorter thanks to the speed and physicality of the game. Frankly he astonished us finding the fountain of youth late in the season.

His QB Jake Locker has Aaron Rogers-like tools, but has come up short in his first two years. Johnson and Locker have such a high upside and downside. I will be paying very close attention to my trusted sources in Tennessee to monitor the progress of those two significant players.

American Football Betting

Betting against Pittsburgh like ‘”steeling”: The Steelers are alleged to be one of the most well run in sports. Yet, QB Ben Roethlisberger is on a steep decline and the defense has three key players who are at least 32 years or older: Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Ryan Clark. Little depth is on defense. It will be a good year to bet against them.

Barely scratching the surface, the above list represents a fraction of several pages of bullet points, with updates in constant progress. Let the training camps begin.

Vegas Insider Picks

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is working around the clock to assure the likelihood of this being the best football betting season ever for pro gamblers.