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HowtoRunaLeanStartupAugust22nd,2016Amancio Bouza,PhD
WhoamI
Amancio Bouza,PhDAdventurousIntrapreneur andDotConnector
Let’sconnect:https://ch.linkedin.com/in/amanciobouza
Followme:https://twitter.com/AmancioBouza
90%ofallStartupsFail
3
Let’sfailfast&cheap
4
Still90%Failures
5
6
What’sthe
secret?Source:Ehapa/Promo
2outof3successfulStartupsadapttheirplan
7
LeanStartup:Measure&LearnandAdaptYourPlan
8
9
#0ROADMAP
10
Everythingstartswithanidea
Weallhaveideas
11
“Nie mehr aufdem Trockenensitzen”
12
Thesecondsthatmatter
13
Entrepreneurs,incontrasttoemployees,
realizetheirideas
14
However,
mostPlanA’sdon’twork
15
IteratefromPlanAtoaPlanThatWorks
16
EssenceofRunningLean
1. DocumentyourPlanA
2. Identifytheriskiestpartsofyourplan
3. Systematicallytestyourplan
17
18
Step1:DocumentYourPlanA
CaptureYourBusinessModelHypotheseswithLeanCanvas
19
Sharewithatleastoneotherperson
What is your Product?
20
21
YourProductisNOT yourProduct
Your“BusinessModel”istheproduct
22
SolutionProblem
Cost Structure
Key Metrics
Unique Value Proposition
Unfair Advantage
Channels
Customer Segments
Revenue Streams
BusinessModelCanvas
23
LeanCanvasvs BusinessModelCanvas
24
25
Step2:IdentifytheRiskiestParts
ofYourPlan
TheThreeStagesofaStartup
26
Problem/Solution
Fit
Product/Market
FitScale
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Stage1:Problem/SolutionFit
Q:DoIhaveaproblemworthsolving?• Desirability• Viability• Feasibility
27
Problem/Solution
Fit
Product/Market
FitScale
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Source:http://forty.co
Stage2:Product/MarketFit
Q:HaveIbuiltsomethingpeoplewant?• MinimalViableProduct(MVP)• Testhowwellyoursolutionsolvesthe
problem
28
Problem/Solution
Fit
Product/Market
FitScale
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Stage3:Scale
Q:HowdoIaccelerategrowth?
29
Problem/Solution
Fit
Product/Market
FitScale
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
PivotBeforeProduct/MarketFit,OptimizeAfter
30
Problem/Solution
Fit
Product/Market
FitScale
Validated LearningPivot
GrowthOptimization
FocusExperiment
FocusExperiment
Pivot:Findaplanthatworks(effectivity)Optimization:acceleratethatplan(efficiency)
31
Step3:SystematicallyTest
YourPlan
AnExperimentisOneCycleintheBuild-Measure-Learn-Loop
32
Iteration-Meta-Pattern
33
Understand Problem
Define Solution
Validate Qualitatively
Problem/Solution Fit Product/Market Fit
Verify Quantitatively
34
#1DOCUMENTYOURPLANA
BrainstormPossibleCustomers
Distinguishbetweencustomeranduseracustomerpaysforyourproduct,auserdoesn’t
SplitbroadcustomersegmentsintosmalleronesYoucan’tcreateaproductforeveryone
SketchaLeanCanvasforeachcustomersegmentstartwiththetoptwoorthreecustomersegments
PuteveryoneonthesamecanvasatfirstEasiertostart
35
SketchingLeanCanvas
36
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistribution CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
HowtoSketchaLeanCanvas:
Tips:
Gofrom1to9
Sketchacanvasinonesitting(<15min)
It’sOKtoleavesectionsblank
Beconcise
Thinkinthepresent
Useacustomer-centricapproach
37
ProblemandCustomerSegments
Listthetoponetothreeproblemsofcustomerseg.
ListexistingalternativesHowdocustomerssolvetheproblemnow?
IdentifyotheruserrolesWhatuserinteractwiththecustomer?
FocusonEarlyAdopter
38
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
1 2
UniqueValueProposition(UVP)
UVP:Whyyouaredifferentandworthbuying gettingattention
Bedifferent,butmakesureyourdifferencemattersDerivefromnumberoneproblem
Targetearlyadopters
Answer:what,who,andwhy
Createahigh-conceptpitch
Focusonfinishedstorybenefits
39
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
3
UniqueValueProposition(UVP)
40
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
3
Solution
DON’TDEFINETHESOLUTIONYET
Allyouhaveareuntestedproblems
Sketchoutthesimplestsolutiontoaddresseachproblem
41
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
4
Channels
Freerversuspaid
Inboundversusoutbound
Directversusautomated
Directversusindirect
Retentionbeforereferral
42
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
5
RevenueStreamsandCostStructure
RevenueStreams– ButwhyforanMVP?PriceispartoftheproductPricedefinesyourcustomerGettingpaidisthefirstformofvalidationTip:pricingagainstexistingalternatives
CoststructureHowmuchtointerview 30-50customers?HowmuchtobuildandlaunchMVP?Burnrate offixedandvariablecosts?
43
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin 67
KeyMetrics
44
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
8
Source:DaveMcClure’sPirateMetrics
UnfairAdvantage(akaTheHardestOne)
InsiderinformationTheright“expert”endorsementsAdreamteamPersonalauthorityLargenetworkeffectsCommunityExistingcustomersSEOranking
45
SolutionTop 3 Features
ProblemTop 3 Problems
Cost StructureCustomer Acquisition CostsDistributing CostsHostingPeople, etc.
Key MetricsKey activities you measure
Unique Value PropositionSingle, clear, compelling message that states who you are different worth buying
Unfair AdvantageCan’t be easily copied or bought
ChannelsPath to customers
Customer SegmentsTarget Customers
Revenue StreamsRevenue ModelLifetime ValueRevenueGross Margin
9
46
#2IDENTIFY THERISKIESTPARTS
OFYOURPLAN
47
PrioritizeWheretoStart
Uncertainty:Lackofcompletecertainty.Existenceofmorethanonepossibility
Risk:Astateofuncertaintywheresomeofthepossibilitiesinvolveanundesirableoutcome
48
HowtoQuantifyRisk
P(Risk)xLO$$(Risk)
49
ThreeCategoriesofRisks
ProductRiskGettingtheproductright
CustomerRiskBuildingapathtocustomers
MarketRiskBuildingaviablebusiness
50
SolutionProblem
Existing Alternatives
Cost Structure
Key Metrics
Unique Value Proposition
Unfair Advantage
Channels
Customer Segments
Early adopter
Revenue Streams
PC
M C
P
MM
C
P
P
M
Product Risk Customer Risk Market Risk
HowtoRankYourBusinessModels
1. Customerpainlevel(Problem)2. Easeofreach(Channels)3. Price/grossmargin(RevenueStreams/CostStructure)4. Marketsize(CustomerSegments)5. Technicalfeasibility(Solution)
51
SeekExternalAdvice
Avoidthe10-slidedeckJustuncovertheLeanCanvas
Devote20%oftimeto,80%toconversationListen,Listen,Listen.Everybodyhasanopinion
AskspecificquestionsWhatistheriskiestaspectoftheplan?Havetheyovercomesimilarrisks?How?ArethereotherpeopleIshouldspeakwith?
“AdvisorParadox”Don’tfollowadvice,applyit.
52
53
GetReadytoExperiment
AssembleaProblem/SolutionTeam
ProblemTeamInterviews,Tests
54
SolutionTeamDevelopingMVP
Source:InnovationProcessTechnologyAG Source:InnovationProcessTechnologyAG
55
“Getoutofthebuilding.”– SteveBlank
Product/SolutionTeam:twotothreepeopleStartwithsmallestteampossible
Communicationiseasier
Youbuildless
Youkeepcostslow
Youneed:DevelopmentDesignMarketing
NEVER outsourcelearningaboutcustomers!56
Source:InnovationProcessTechnologyAG
RunningEffectiveExperiments
57
Focus
Speed
Learning
MaximizeforSpeed,Learning,andFocus
58
Speed
FocusLearning
Premature optimization Chasing your tail
Running out off resources
The optimal learning loop
FormulateaFalsifiableHypothesis
Formulaforfalsifiablehypothesis:[SpecificRepeatableAction]will[ExpectedMeasurableOutcome]
Examples:Bad: Beingknownasan“expert“willdriveearlyadoptersGood: Blogpostwilldrive100signups
59
60
ValidateQualitatively,VerifyQuantitatively
DotheSmallestThingPossibletoLearn
61
62
LessonsLearnedReportWhatweThought
Insights
What’sNext
KeyMetrics
LeanCanvas
63
64
65
66
“Startupsthatsucceedarethosethatmanagetoiterateenoughtimesbeforerunningoutofresources.”
– EricRies
67
#3SYSTEMATICALLYTEST
YOURPLAN
68
“IfIhadaskedpeoplewhattheywanted,theywouldhavesaidfasterhorses.”
– HenryFord
69
“Itisnotthecustomer’sjobtoknowwhattheywant.”
– SteveJobs
ApplyingtheIterationMeta-PatterntoRisks
70
Understand Problem
Define Solution
Validate Qualitatively
Problem/Solution Fit Product/Market Fit
Verify Quantitatively
S1.Understandtheproblem
Who,What,Howsolvedtoday?
S2.Definethesolution
Demo,Pricing?
S3.Validatequalitatively
MVP,softlaunch.Gettingpaid?
S4.Verifyquantitatively
Scale?Viable?
71
SolutionProblem
Existing Alternatives
Cost Structure
Key Metrics
Unique Value Proposition
Unfair Advantage
Channels
Customer Segments
Early adopter
Revenue Streams
11
1 2
2
234
3
4
2
2
Product Risk Customer Risk Market Risk
72
TakeHome:YourPlanAwillNOTwork
73
IteratefromPlanAtoaPlanThatWorks
Understand Problem
Define Solution
Validate Qualitatively
Problem/Solution Fit Product/Market Fit
Verify Quantitatively