WP2: Feasibility analyses and development of ‘best practice’ criteria

Social Science: Mariella Marzano & Mike Dunn Economics: Gregory Valatin& Colin PriceNursery engagement: Tim Pettitt

Plant health researchers: Alexandra Schlenzig, Jane Barbrook & Ana Pérez-Sierra

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Social and Economic researchThree key parts:i)Social analysis to assess applicability of best practice criteriaii)Cost-benefit analysis of introducing ‘best practice’iii)Developing ‘best practice’ criteria to underpin guidelines for an accreditation scheme

Responsibilities:Mariella: WP2 leader and carrying out social researchGregory: Leading economic research within WP2Mike: Social researcherTim: Assisting with social research esp. nursery

engagementColin: Economist

Social ResearchSocial analysis to assess applicability of best practice

criteria Objectivesi.Stakeholder mapping of nursery sector – forest nurseries, horticulture retail, wholesale nurseries etc.ii.Research into existing values, experiences and practices on disease effects and management iii.Assess attitudes towards accreditation scheme

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Milestones and outputs

Month 6 – Map stakeholder networksMonth 12 – Interim report on stakeholder values and practicesMonth 24– Interim report on stakeholder attitudes towards accreditationMonth 24 – Report on consumer survey Month 30 – Contribute finding into accreditation frameworkMonth 34 – Final report on nursery practices and feasibility of future management options

Stakeholder mappingStakeholder mappingi.Identification started – 100+ organisations/individuals but need to fill in more details ii.Analysis of networks and connections (through interviews and participation in other meetings, events)iii.Will inform communication and engagement

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Context buildingContext building:i.Nursery visits with WP1 team (sampling) - nowii.Interviews with EAP members - now

• Biggest threats in plant health• Mechanisms for trade or exchange in plants (informal and formal) How do

they work?• Role nurseries play in contributing or mitigating pest and disease threats• Are there other more serious contributors?• Key challenges that nurseries face in becoming biosecure (e.g.

funding/staffing/resources/knowledge)• Effectiveness of policies to deal with disease threats • What issues do you think social research should be addressing?

iii. Interviews at participating nurseries (from Jan 17)

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Interviews at nurseriesInterviews and participant observation with nurseries •Location within supply chain•Perspectives on disease threats •Current pest and disease management and links to existing beliefs, values and experiences •Governance and policy tools and wider influences on decision-making e.g. knowledge networks, business model •Key areas where nurseries are most and least able to change;•Perspectives on disease management for future•Willingness to join accreditation scheme and what this should look like.

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Events

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Events – opportunities for focus groups?

•Assess attitudes towards accreditation scheme•What events should we attend?•Who should we be talking to?

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• Where they buy/acquire plants and why (e.g. local, reputation, cost, quality, variety, benefits offered)

• How much they spend a year• What they buy and influencing factors (e.g. cost, advice,

function)• Awareness of pests and diseases• Awareness of biosecurity measures used by sellers• Where they information from (e.g. networks, from seller, media)• Experience and attitudes towards accreditation• WTP and WTT

Consumer Survey

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• Plant-buying ‘public’ (online survey company)• Networks and memberships (e.g. Dobbie’s members, RHS, NT)

Other plant buyers• NGOs• Commercial retailers (e.g. supermarkets, DIY, large garden centres…)• Forest nurseries• More…

Consumer Survey

Economic AnalysisCost-benefit analysis of nursery accreditation options

Objectives•to undertake an appraisal of the costs and benefits of options for developing best practice in UK nurseries to mitigate risks of further Phytophthora introduction and spread:

from UK nurseries’ perspective from the perspective of society as a whole

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Defining ‘do nothing’ scenarioIf nurseries fail to implement recommended best practices: 1)What are the main expected impacts on different stakeholders?

i) Nurseries?ii) Purchasers of nursery plants?iii) Forest owners?iv) Wider society?

a) What time-frame(s) would these impacts be expected to occur? a) are the impacts best described in probabilistic terms for different potential outcomes?b) What distribution of impacts is expected between different groups?

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Baseline information1) What size is the market for tree seedlings (£m/yr)

i) What proportion of the total stock is currently susceptible to the phytophthoras that best practice will focus limiting risks of spread?a) is this proportion expected to change over time

e.g. due to development of more virulent hybrid strains)?ii) How many buyers of susceptible plants from UK nurseries are there?

a) Which categories of buyers would it be useful to focus on for segmentation?How many buyers are there in each of these segments?

b) What population sampling strategy would be best to ensure results for different segments are statistically significant?

iii) How many plant nurseries selling (susceptible) tree seedlings are there in the UK?a) Which categories would it be useful to focus on for segmentation?b) What is the best population sampling strategy to ensure results for different segments

are statistically significant iv) How is market size expected to change in future (with introduction

of best practice, and without best practice)?

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Best practice scenarios1) How many and which best practice scenarios to focus on?

For each best practice scenario:2) To what extent is each expected impact from the ‘do nothing’ (baseline) scenario mitigated?

i) Which risks of phytophthora spread and associated impacts are reduced and by how much? a) are the impacts best described in probabilistic terms for different potential outcomes?

ii) What is the relationship between the extent of uptake of measures by the nurseries and the anticipated risk and impact reduction? How is this relationship accounted for in the scenario?

iii) What is the best way to frame the anticipated risk reduction impacts when discussing with plant purchasers/nursery owners?

i)Issues of framing & potential bias?

3) Is there potential for in-depth exploration of willingness-to-pay?•E.g. deliberative monetary valuation or choice experiment as a Masters project?

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5 groups – facilitator and scribe

1. What does an accreditation scheme means to you?2. What do you think an accreditation scheme should

include?3. Who should decide on criteria for accreditation? 4. Do you have any experience/examples of

accreditation other sectors/countries? Lessons learned?

5. What are the opportunities/challenges that people forsee?

Accreditation discussion