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Adaptive Strategic Planning
Infrastructure Planning workshop
Dr Geoff Darch
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Decision making challenges
• Huge infrastructure legacy / deficit (depending on location)
• Expensive, lumpy, long-term investments
• Very long asset life / permanent assets
• Significant long-term uncertainties in supply and demand:
population; efficiency savings; changes in demand; regulation;
climate change
• Interdependencies
• UK examples:
– Water: resilience; strategic supply schemes; >£40bn AMP6
– Energy: changes to energy mix; £275bn pipeline
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Scenario planning
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Scenario planning
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Robust decision making
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Darch et al. (2011) for Adaptation Sub-Committee and
Thames Water
Real options
Extend to consider costs and benefits of decision choices across
pathway e.g. opportunity cost
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First date of
possible change
Second date of
possible change
Monitoring
An adaptive approach requires monitoring:
• Horizon scanning e.g. new risks
• Assess changes in large-scale drivers e.g. risks
• Refine understanding of infrastructure systems
• Identify critical sensitivities and thresholds
• Evaluate performance
SCADA and ‘big data’ can help inform appropriate analytics.
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Conclusions
For more effective decision making need
to plan:
• Long-term
• For robustness rather than optimality
• Collaboratively
• Monitoring
A variety of techniques are available!
What planning approaches are you
using?
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Thank you
www.atkinsglobal.com
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