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Africa’s agricultural development promises much more than food security
Jimmy Smith, Director General, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
With Dolapo Enahoro, Susan MacMillan, Shirley TarawaliUniversity of Illinois, Champaign
12 October 2016
CIMMYTMexico CityMexico
IFPRIWash. DCUSA
CIPLimaPeru
CIATCaliColombia
BioversityInternationalRome Italy
AfricaRiceCotonouBenin
IITAIbadanNigeria
ILRINairobiKenya Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
World AgroforestryNairobiKenya
ICARDABeirut Lebanon ICRISAT
PatancheruIndia
IWMIColomboSri Lanka
IRRILos BanosPhillippines
World FishPenangMalaysia
CIFORBogorIndonesia
CGIAR: a global agricultural research partnership15 CGIAR Research Centres
ILRI: a global livestock mandate
Main campuses: Nairobi and Addis Ababa Offices in 16 other countries
About 750 staff
High end biotechnology (vaccines, genomics, feeds); food safety and zoonoses; environment, livelihoods, policies, markets, gender….
….better lives through livestock…..
How to feed 10 billion people?
Food price crisis 2007/08:What can we learn?
$$$
$$$
$$$ $$$
$$$ $$$
$$$
$$$
The crisis:The doubling of food prices
Food comes from the supermarket(NOT)
Feeding the World: 60% more foodproductivity gains, not expansion
8
Demand for food in Africa
9
2010 2050
59
156
31
115146
314303
816
Livestock-Derived Foods Grains as Livestock Feed Grains as Food Other Plant-Based Foods
million metric tonnes, projections to 2050
Livestock: 163%
increase
Where is the food coming from?
10
70% of the
hungry and
poor are also
those
producing
food
In low income
economies at
least 70% of
meat and milk
is from smallholder farms
90% of the
meat, milk and
eggs produced
are consumed
in the same country
Over half th
e
meat and milk
and almost half
the cereals a
re
from mixe
d
crop liv
estock
farmsIn many ru
ral
economies,
women
constitute over
half the farm
work force
Africa’s food imports:a major opportunity (lost?)
11
1970 1990 2010 20300
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Oils and oilseedsCerealsMeat, Milk, Eggs
Projections on Value of Africa’s food imports to 2030 (million US dollars)
……by 2030, Africa’s net import bill for cereal, livestock, and oilseed products could increase over 2010s levels by up to 47%, 167% and more than 400%, respectively
The cost of food imports:much more than money
12
Africa’s untapped potential?People | Land | Water
13
Food and nutritional security:the heartland of African agriculture
14
African agriculture: Beyond food and nutrition security
15
Africa N America Europe
1 044
344
735
208 48 94
2010
Africa N America Europe
2 478
433 707
452
52 72
Total PopulationYouth
2050
Regional projections to 2050, of total and youth (15 to 24) populations in millions
Global ramifications
16
Africa: refugees, 2014
Internally displaced people = 9.9 million
Refugees originating from Africa = 4.6 million
Africa: unemployment, 2013
Total for the six highest = 11.8 million
(Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Morocco,
Algeria, Ghana)
What’s needed?A ‘Marshall plan’ for Africa’?
17
Livestock contribute at least 40% ofagricultural GDP in many African countries
ODA investment in agriculture is lessthan 5% of the total, and of that, less than 5% goes to livestock
In Africa, average governmentexpenditure on agriculture was 4.7% in2012.
Only Mali, Senegal and Burkina Faso spent over 8%, six countries spent5 – 8%, others all less than 5%
For Illinois?
18
Capacity development
Research in developing countries
Upstream partnerships
This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
ilri.orgILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
to the CGIAR system
Artwork from: Artsonia.com