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Northern Virginia Association of Realtors
March 19, 2009
The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economic Performance Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight
Forecast >>>>>
GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars)%
CURRENT CONDITIONS
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS
Feb 09 =- 4.34 Mil
Source: BLS Establishment Survey
Initial Unemployment Claims
350
Thousands (4-week moving average)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Feb = 8.1%
Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Rt Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays%
Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
U.S. Economic Performance
Source: Global Insight
The Washington Area and NorthernVirginia Economies
US GDP and Washington GRP
%
Washington GRP
US GDP
U.S. Washington AreaGRP Change
3/01 - 11/01 (8) 2.5 %7/90 - 3/91 (8) 0.2 %
7/81 - 11/82 (16) 3.1 %1/80 - 7/80 (6) 2.3 %
U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions
2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
LocalBusiness38.9%
Non-LocalBusiness11.8 %
Federal 33.3%
Procurement15.4%
Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0%
Int’l 4.8%
Other 7.0%
Other Federal17.9 %
Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists
Total Federal SpendingWashington Metro Area
Billions Current $
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total
Procurement
Federal Procurement SpendingWashington Metro & Northern VA
Billions Current $
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.
Metro
NVA
Thousands
Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area
1991 - 2008
Avg. = 45,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Jan. 08 – Jan. 09
(000s)
Washington - 1,800
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorJan 2008 – Jan 2009
Washington MSA(000s)
Total - 1,800
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA
Jan 08 – Jan 09
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
Dec:7.1%
4.7%
3.9%
Northern VA
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
December 2008%
US7.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
Housing Market Trends
Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, February Each Year
Listings
Sales
1000s
Units Sold Percent ChangeBy Subregion
All Housing Types%
NVA
MSA
DC
SMD
2007 2008 2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Price Index TrendsU.S. and Washington Metro Area
Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
ConformingLoans Only
Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$
+ 8.0 %/year
Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change
Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6,100 + 1.1 %
Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19,700 - 3.5 %
Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31,700 - 6.3 %
Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46,300 - 8.4 %
Prince George’s $331,100 $290,200 - $40,900 - 12.4 %
Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96,100 - 17.7 %
Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127,800 - 24.7 %
Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137,100 - 34.7 %
MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35,400 - 8.1 %
VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115,100 - 23.6 %
METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74,000 - 15.8 %
Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09
Foreclosures /10,000 units
Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 2008 Jan 2009
Economic Forecast
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSA
NV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
D.C. 5.8 4.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 7.0 6.5
Sub. MD 4.7 3.4 6.0 10.7 12.5 14.3 16.4
No. VA 12.4 9.0 12.2 19.8 23.5 26.8 31.1
REGION 22.9 16.6 23.7 36.5 42.4 48.1 54.0
Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 45,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2013
Washington
U.S.
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