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THE NORMALISATION OF RETAIL
Michael Bate
Head of Retail
Colliers International
90 95 00 05 10
Retail Sales (LHS) Consumer Sentiment (RHS)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
THE RETAIL ENVIRONMENT
Online Opportunity not a threat.
International retailers
Australia is an attractive
proposition.
Domestic retailers
Expanding offshore.
Retailer reporting
Surprised on the upside.
Retailer failures
The worst is over?
Xmas/ January
trade Little impact from interest
rate cuts.
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$150M
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$1.3B
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$650.0M
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$200.0M
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$1.95B
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$2.0B
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$2.0B
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
$7+billion
THE INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK
2
3
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15
De
c-8
7
De
c-8
8
De
c-8
9
De
c-9
0
De
c-9
1
De
c-9
2
De
c-9
3
De
c-9
4
De
c-9
5
De
c-9
6
De
c-9
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De
c-9
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De
c-9
9
De
c-0
0
De
c-0
1
De
c-0
2
De
c-0
3
De
c-0
4
De
c-0
5
De
c-0
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c-0
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c-0
9
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c-1
0
De
c-1
1
De
c-1
2
% p
.a.
Super & Major Regional
Regional
Sub-Regional
Neighbourhood
10 Yr Bonds
AUSTRALIAN RETAIL SECTOR INCOME YIELDS
Source: Colliers International Research/Deloitte Access Economics/IPD
1996 to 1998
2008 to 2012
Neighbourhood
8.2%
DEC 12
DEC 12
Sub Regional
7.8%
DEC 12
Regional
7.0%
FOREIGN INVESTMENT RETAIL DATA
$19m
$458m
$132m
$698m
$1,458b
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FOREIGN INVESTMENT RETAIL DATA
worth of offshore capital looking to invest
in Australian retail in 2013
$3BILLION
Consumer Confidence
Lowering interest rates
Consumer spend
Developer Confidence in the market
Affordable capital
Stable economy with
a continued pop grown
Retailer Improved strategies
Consumer spend
International retailers
Investment Stable yields
entering 2013
10 year bonds at an
all-time low
Foreign investment at
an all-time high THE KEY TAKEOUTS
THE NORMALISATION OF RETAIL
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