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Comprehensive Housing Market Overview
http://stevenwblack.com
January 15, 2011
13 years Experience
background
http://stevenwblack.com
Top-Producing Realtor in Napa
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/johnjoh/1060267344/ http://stevenwblack.com
Been through it personally
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smswigart/5147001743/ http://stevenwblack.com
Driven by passion to help other Americans keep their homes
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bondomania/2636802659/ http://stevenwblack.com
Why we’re hereWho is affectedHow it happens
What you can do
we’re going to talk about
http://stevenwblack.com
the fine print
✴ Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
*
http://stevenwblack.com
the fine print
✴ Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
*Don’t worry, we are happy to
o!er help specific to your situation after this presentation
http://stevenwblack.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/joao_trindade/4363157652
Why Are We Here?
http://stevenwblack.com
how it SHOULD work
Change in financial situation
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
http://stevenwblack.com
Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it SHOULD work
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Priniciple reductionRestructuring
(interest rate )Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it SHOULD work
Priniciple reductionRestructuring
(interest rate )Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Done.Done.
http://stevenwblack.com
Loan Modification Programs
http://stevenwblack.com
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Modification
Process
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Indy Mac Plan
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Fannie Mae /Freddie Mac Plan
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Hope for Homeowners Plan(HUD/FHA)
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
TARP(Troubled Assets Relief Program)
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
HAMP(Home Affordable Modification Plan)
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan
TARPHAMP
loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan
TARPHAMP
1
2
3
4
5
6
How Did the Major Banks Do in 2009?
http://stevenwblack.com
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 2009
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
*
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
172 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
172 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
6% of Eligible Loans
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 2009
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
224 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
224 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
4% of Eligible Loans
How it Really Works
http://stevenwblack.com
Change in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
http://stevenwblack.com
Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principlereduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
http://stevenwblack.com
Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principle reduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
Bank drivesterms of sale
Multiple Offers
http://stevenwblack.com
Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principlereduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
Bank drivesterms of sale
Multiple Offers
Fore-
closure
!!!
Fore-
closure!!!
http://stevenwblack.com
Who is Directly Affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billward/4461521050/ http://stevenwblack.com
home purchased in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
home purchased in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
that’s back to 1997
http://stevenwblack.com
refinanced in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
that’s back to 1997
http://stevenwblack.com
Who is Indirectly Affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
who is indirectly affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/srogan/2284111398/
friends and family
http://stevenwblack.com
communities
who is indirectly affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/familymwr/4841981088 http://stevenwblack.com
local businessesschools
marriagestaxpayers
who is indirectly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
Everyone.
who is indirectly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
Who Profits?
http://stevenwblack.com
bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
http://stevenwblack.com
bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
http://stevenwblack.com
bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
$38 Billion533% annual increase
124% quarterly increase
$51 Billion292% annual increase
34% quarterly increase
http://stevenwblack.com
How it Happens
http://stevenwblack.com
pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
870 ft2
Reg
ular
Sal
e
http://stevenwblack.com
pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
870 ft2
1150 ft2
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
1150 ft2870 ft2
$50,100 devaluationfor a house 32% larger
in ~5 weeks
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
880 ft2
Reg
ular
Sal
e
http://stevenwblack.com
westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
880 ft2
760 ft2
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
760 ft2
880 ft2
$81,800 devaluationin 14 days
Reg
ular
Sal
e
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
http://stevenwblack.com
autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
Bank
ow
ned
* *
http://stevenwblack.com
autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
Bank
ow
ned
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
* *
$765,000 devaluationover 3 years while
bank profits are at record highs
http://stevenwblack.com
autumn run neighborhood
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
http://stevenwblack.com
Will
owbend Ct.
Sage Way
Capitola D
r.Ullm
an Ct.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Will
owbend Ct.Capito
la Dr.
Capitola D
r.Liberty
Dr.
Capitola D
r.Capito
la Dr.
Liberty D
r.Capito
la Ct.Liberty
Dr.
Liberty D
r.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
8/2008 through 9/2010
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
autumn run neighborhood
http://stevenwblack.com
Will
owbend Ct.
Sage Way
Capitola D
r.Ullm
an Ct.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Will
owbend Ct.Capito
la Dr.
Capitola D
r.Liberty
Dr.
Capitola D
r.Capito
la Dr.
Liberty D
r.Capito
la Ct.Liberty
Dr.
Liberty D
r.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
8/2008 through 9/2010
autumn run neighborhood
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
bank profits*
home values
Q1 2008 through Q3 2010
autumn run neighborhood
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
Q1 2008 through Q3 2010
$765,000 devaluation
$51 Billion292% annual increase
34% quarterly increase
napa overview
http://stevenwblack.com* Source: BAREIS
Pre-forclosure 367
Auction 444
Bank Owned 401
Total 1,212
As of January 14, 2011
lake county overview
http://stevenwblack.com
Pre-forclosure 427
Auction 367
Bank Owned 992
Total 1,786
As of January 14, 2011
* Source: BAREIS
crime rate
http://stevenwblack.com
According to a study by Woodstock Institute and the Georgia Institute of
Technology, a foreclosure rate of 3 percent leads to a
7 percent increase in crime*
* Source: National Association of Realtors
What Can You Do?
http://stevenwblack.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/
what you can do
Get Educated
http://stevenwblack.com
what you can do
Get Educated
Being here is a great start!
http://stevenwblack.comhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/
what you can do
Get Help
http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/ http://stevenwblack.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/
what you can do
Get Help
*
Or someone like us*http://stevenwblack.com
The Process
http://stevenwblack.com
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Draft a plan
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Execute
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
Next Steps
http://stevenwblack.com
we are here for you
http://[email protected]
@stevenwblackFacebook
1.707.931.4700
http://stevenwblack.com
Questions&
Answers
http://stevenwblack.com
We Encourage SharingYou are free to download and distribute this presentation under
the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlike license
That means you can use the information in this presentation for non-commercial means as long as you share your work under the
same license and give credit toSteven W. Black & Associates
finishing up
http://stevenwblack.com