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Atlanta office market 3 q2011

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Atlanta Office Market 3Q2011

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Page 1: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Investment

Page 2: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

“Commercial real estate performance generally lags in

economic growth by about 4 to 6 quarters.”

“U.S. commercial real estate fundamentals continue their

recovery path.”

“Demand for commercial space and net absorption has

increased, although general leasing activity slowed moderately

during the 3rd quarter of 2011.”

“In almost all property sectors, occupancy rates are improving,

Concessions are declining and effective rents are rising in

many markets.”

“With vacancy rates high, financing limited and rents below

levels necessary to justify new construction – supply pipelines

are well below long-term averages.”

…from National Real Estate Investor

Page 3: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

“…the U.S. economy remains sluggish and continues to perform

well below the desired pace of economic expansion….at the

current rate of growth, about 3 to 4 million jobs will be generated

over the next 2 years.”

…from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist NAR

Page 4: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

The office sector has experienced a faster than expected

recovery with 2011 year-to-date rent growth of 2 percent. The

top seven CBDs dominate with 36 percent of the total stock,

but 77 percent of total absorption. In addition, 82 percent of

CBD and 30 percent of suburban markets are showing

positive rent growth, while state and local government

markets remain weak in general. With muted supply, a strong

office recovery is expected in 2013-2015. Major CBDs, which

have benefited disproportionally from the government

bailouts and the rebound of the high-tech and energy

industries, are expected to recover more quickly than most

suburban office markets.

…from National Real Estate Investor

Page 5: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

3Q 2011 Office Investment Summary

Page 6: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Historical GDP

Page 7: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

National Unemployment

Rate

Page 8: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

National Employment

Figures

Page 9: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

National Office Vacancy Rate3Q - 2011

Page 10: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Historical Rental Rates

National Market

Page 11: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Historical Rental Rates

Atlanta Market

Page 12: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

10-yr, 5-yr & Bank Prime Rates

Page 13: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Stock Market Performance

Page 14: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Recession Comparison

Percent of Job Losses

Page 15: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

3Q 2011 Office Investment Summary

Page 16: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Net Absorption Summary

Atlanta Office Market

Net Absorption OVERALL CBD SUBURBAN

3Q2011 406,063 (9,667) 415,730

2Q2011 (13,302) (91,087) 77,785

1Q2011 (470,597) (234,559) (236,038)

4Q2010 623,365 167,284 456,081

Class “A” Class “B” Class “C”

3Q2011 116,750 SF 208,720 80,593

2Q2011 49,697 SF (147,913) 84,914

1Q2011 870,969 SF (1,206,174) (135,392)

4Q2010 155,230 SF 184,089 284,046

2011 MOVE OUT: AT&T 376k1 BofA 328k2 BofA 250k3

2011 MOVE IN: SunTrust 254k3 Coke 148k1 Arch Chem 69k1

1 – N Fulton 2 – Midtown 3- Downtown

Page 17: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Atlanta Vacancy Rates

3Q2011

Page 18: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

“Top 5” SUBMARKETS *min. 500,000sf submarket [market size]

1. Decatur [1.0M] 8.6%

2. Chamblee/Dville/N D Hills [1.4M] 11.1%

3. Kennesaw/Town Center [1.4M] 14.5%

4. Cumberland/Galleria [16.0M] 15.7%

5. N Fulton/Forsyth [16.4M] 16.5%

Last – N Clayton/Airport [1.1M] 23.7%

CLASS “A”

CLASS “B”

1. Decatur [4.3M] 5.9%

2. Downtown [14.1M] 8.0%

3. Stone Mountain [564k] 9.5%

4. Chamblee/Dville/N D Hills [7.4M] 9.9%

5. Douglasville/Lithia Springs [1.4M] 11.7%

Last – Central Perimeter [9.3M] 28.1%

AVG

18.3%

AVG

16.7%

Page 19: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

“Top 5” SUBMARKETS *min. 500,000sf submarket [market size]

1. Lower Buckhead [549k] 3.0%

2. Decatur [2.0M] 5.2%

3. Stone Mountain [825k] 5.3%

4. Duluth/Suwanee/Buford [2.0M] 6.2%

5. Newton County [534k] 7.2%

Last – West Atlanta [1.3M] 43.6%

CLASS “C”

OVERALL

1. Decatur [7.4M] 6.1%

2. Stone Mountain [1.4M] 7.0%

3. Chamblee/Dville/N D Hills [11.8M] 10.3%

4. Newton County [888k] 10.9%

5. Spalding County [512k] 11.1%

Last – West Atlanta [1.7M] 36.7%

AVG

13.9%

AVG

16.9%

Page 20: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Largest Lease Deals - YTD

3Q20111. GE Consumer Finance (203,245 SF)

Windward Plaza in Alpharetta

2. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey (135,075 SF)

Atlanta Financial Center in Buckhead

3. Alston & Bird, LLP (132,856 SF)

One Atlantic Center in Buckhead

4. FBI (119,178 SF)

2635 Century Center in Chamblee

5. ATSDR – Gov’t (100,800 SF)

1825 Century Center in Chamblee

6. Morris, Manning & Martin LLP (99,089 SF)

Atlanta Financial Center in Buckhead

7. SunTrust Bank (72,232 SF)

Campanile Plaza in Midtown

8. I.R.S. (72,088 SF)

6655 Peachtree Dunwoody Rd in Central Perimeter

Page 21: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Sales Activity Summary*office buildings over 15,000sf

1Q 2011

14 Transactions

$207,353,000

1,182,991 sq. ft.

$175/sf average

2Q 2011

32 Transactions

$315,985,000

4,324,338 sq. ft.

$73/sf average

YTD 2011 (2Q)

46 Transactions

$523,338,000

$95/sf average

2011 Cap Rates Avg 8.65%

2010 Cap Rates Avg 9.82%

CAP RATE SUMMARY

LARGEST SALE

• 01/21/11

3344 Peachtree Road

483,726 RSF

$167M or $345/sf

6.80% Cap Rate

• Seller: Farallon Capital Mnagement

• Buyer: Parkway Properties

PEAK

2006 @ $4.2B

LOW

2009 @ $157M

Page 22: Atlanta office market 3 q2011
Page 23: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

CASE STUDY – Gwinnett Center*REO SALE* Buyer: Global Growth Trust, Inc.

Sale Date: 10/17/11

Total RSF: 263,742 RSF

Occupancy At Sale: 40.0%

Sales Price: $14,100,000

Sales Price PSF: $53 PSF

3-YR AVG NOI: $1,207,000

Yr 1-3 (TI/C/CapX): $5,588,706

ADJUSTED BASIS: $19,688,706

Going In CAP Rate* 6.13%*based on 3-yr Avg NOI

YR 4 Estimated NOI: $2,611,000

Exit CAP Rate: 9.5%

Sales Price: $27,500,000

Closing Costs 3%: ($824,000)

GROSS PROCEEDS: $26,676,000

ORIGINAL ADJ BASIS: ($19,688,706)

3-YR INCOME: $3,600,000

NET PROCEEDS: $10,588,000

I.R.R. on Adj Basis: 17.9% SEC FILING

Prior Sale

$32,500,000

May 2006TERMS OF DEBT

WITH RBC

TS ANALYSIS

Page 24: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

CASE STUDY –160 Clairemont*DIRECT SALE* Buyer: Parmenter Realty Partners

Sale Date: 09/27/11

Total RSF: 122,000 RSF

Occupancy At Sale: 76%

Sales Price: $13,400,000

Sales Price PSF: $106 PSF

3-YR AVG NOI: $1,225,000

Yr 1-3 (TI/C/CapX): $1,080,000

ADJUSTED BASIS: $14,480,000

Going In CAP Rate* 8.45%

*based on 3-yr Avg NOI

YR 4 Estimated NOI: $1,546,445

Exit CAP Rate: 9.00%

Sales Price: $17,182,000

Closing Costs 3%: ($515,000)

GROSS PROCEEDS: $16,667,000

ORIGINAL ADJ BASIS: ($14,480,000)

3-YR INCOME: $3,675,000

NET PROCEEDS: $5,862,000

I.R.R. on Adj Basis: 13.49% (unleveraged)

Prior Sale

$9,770,000

May 2001

ARTICLE

Page 25: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

CASE STUDY –8800 Roswell Road*LENDER SALE* Buyer: Resource Partners

Sale Date:

Total RSF: 73,727 RSF

Occupancy At Sale: 34%

Sales Price: $2,100,000

Sales Price PSF: $28 PSF

3-YR AVG NOI: $382,000

Yr 1-3 (TI/C/CapX): $1,268,000

ADJUSTED BASIS: $3,368,000

Going In CAP Rate* 11.3%

*based on 3-yr Avg NOI

YR 4 Estimated NOI: $599,231 (yr 5 - $726k)

Exit CAP Rate: 9.00%

Sales Price: $6,658,000 ($90 PSF)

Closing Costs 3%: ($199,000)

GROSS PROCEEDS: $6,459,000

ORIGINAL ADJ BASIS: ($3,368,000)

3-YR INCOME: $1,146,000

NET PROCEEDS: $4,237,000

I.R.R. on Adj Basis: 41.9%

Prior Sale

$6,200,000

March 1999

Page 26: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

CASE STUDY – Suwanee Gateway*LENDER SALE* Buyer: SDM, Greenstone, Colliers Int’l

Sale Date: 09/28/10

Total RSF: 142,427 RSF

Occupancy At Sale: 0%

Sales Price: $7,700,000

Sales Price PSF: $54 PSF

3-YR AVG NOI: $0

Yr 1-3 (TI/C/CapX): $40/sf (TI) $10/sf (Comm)

ADJUSTED BASIS: $14,821,000 (excld carry cost)

Going In CAP Rate* N/A

*based on 3-yr Avg NOI

YR 4 Estimated NOI: $1,851,551 ($13/sf NET)

Exit CAP Rate: 8.00%

Sales Price: $23,144,000 ($162/sf)

Closing Costs 3%: ($694,000)

GROSS PROCEEDS: $22,449,000

ORIGINAL ADJ BASIS: ($14,821,000)

3-YR INCOME: $0

NET PROCEEDS: $7,628,000

I.R.R. on Adj Basis: 17.2% (3-yr) 25.7% (2-yr)PACKAGEGreenstoneSDM

Page 27: Atlanta office market 3 q2011

Current and Future Opportunities

244 PERIMETER CENTER

Type: Redevelopment

RSF: 262,000 s.f. on 15.1 acres

Percent Leased: 0%

Submarket: Central Perimeter

Est. Sales Price: $19.75M, $75/sf, $1.3M/ac

CRESTWOOD

Type: REO

RSF: 100,345 s.f.

Percent Leased: 57%

Submarket: Duluth/Suwanee/Buford

Est. Sales Price: $4.2M, $41/sf

ATLANTIC STATION

Type: Note Sale

RSF: 349,402 s.f.

Percent Leased: 47%

Submarket: Midtown/Pershing Point

Est. Sales Price: $130-$140/sf

DECATUR PLAZA

Type: Direct Offering

RSF: 112,440 s.f.

Percent Leased: 100% (Emory)

Submarket: Decatur

Est. Sales Price: ?

FALLS POINTE

Type: Direct Offering

RSF: 106,700 s.f.

Percent Leased: 100%

Submarket: Central Perimeter

Est. Sales Price: ?

SECURITIES CENTRE

Type: Foreclosure

RSF: 551,720 s.f.

Percent Leased: 83%

Submarket: Upper Buckhead

Est. Sales Price: ?