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Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit and Database for Earthquake Risk Assessment
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Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit and Database for Earthquake Risk Assessment
Dr. Bijan Khazai, Dr. Christopher G. Burton, Paolo Tormene, Christopher Power, Marco Bernasocchi, Dr. James E. Daniell, Benjamin Wyss. 24-29 August, 2014 – 2ECEES, Istanbul
Same Event: Different Impacts
Framework for Integrated Risk Assessment in OpenQuake
Putting it all Together: Integrated Risk Modelling in OpenQuake
Physical Seismic Risk Social Vulnerability Integrated Risk
Burton and Silva 2014
Carreño et al. 2012
Khazai et al. 2014
Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Socio-Economic Database
Statistical Approach
Expert Opinion Approach
CorrelationsAnalysis
Completeness
Consultation
Pre-PCA data Processing
Principal Components Analysis
Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Power et al. 2014
Linking Users to the Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Data Analysis
Power et al. 2014
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
Construction
manufacturing n.e.c.
machinery and equipment
electrical and optical equipment
wood and wood products
leather and leather products
textiles and wearing apparel
food and tobacco
pulp, paper and paper products
rubber and plastic products
basic metals and metal products
non-metallic mineral products
chemical products
transport equipment
Electricity, gas and water supply
refined petroleum products
Capital dependency Labour Dependency Electricity Dependency Water Dependency
Transportation Dependency Supply Dependency Demand Dependency
0,529
0,528
0,424
0,408
0,357
0,331
0,310
0,310
0,298
0,295
0,190
0,264
0,291
0,289
0,290
0,255
Industrial Vulnerability Index IVIs
Illustration of Sector-specific Application: Vulnerability of industrial sectors to indirect losses in Baden Wuerttemberg, Germany. Adapted from Khazai et al.( 2011)
Power et al. 2014
Workflow: Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit
Step 1. Theoretical framework: basis for definition indicator selection, weighting, and aggregation.
Step 2. Selection of indicators
Step 3. Data Standardization/Normalization
Step 4. Multivariate analysis (e.g. PCA or Reliability/Item Analysis)
Step 5. Weighting and aggregation (based on statistical models or participatory approaches)
Step 6. Robustness and sensitivity (uncertainty and sensitivity analysis)
Step 7. Links to other variables (e.g. physical risk estimates, external validation metrics)
Step 8. Presentation and dissemination
PopulationPopulation EconomyEconomy Infrastructure
Infrastructure
I1I1
I2I2
I3I3
I4I4
I4I4
I6I6
I7I7
I9I9
I8I8
IndexIndex
I1Educatio
n
I1Educatio
n
I4Gender
I4Gender
I2AgeI2
Age
I6Income
I6Income
I5Health
I5Health
I3Disabilit
y
I3Disabilit
y
IndexIndex
Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: User Data Inputs
Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: Stakeholder Derived Weighting and Aggregation
The Road Ahead
‣ Improvements to GIS-based and web-mapping tools
‣ Ability to account for sensitivities and uncertainties in social vulnerability model development
‣ Improvement of qualitative tools for “bottom-up” analysis
‣ Development of individual use-cases and accompanying methodologies
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org
