Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment
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Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment Dr. Christopher G. Burton, Dr. Bijan Khazai, Dr. James Daniell, Johannes Anhorn, Sevgi Ozcebe, Christopher Power June 30, 2014 – Understanding Risk, London
Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment
Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment
Citation preview
Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment
Dr. Christopher G. Burton, Dr. Bijan Khazai, Dr. James Daniell, Johannes Anhorn, Sevgi Ozcebe, Christopher Power
June 30, 2014 – Understanding Risk, London
Presenter
Presentation Notes
GEM Scientific Framework
Ozcebe, Crowley, and Burton 2014
Physical Risk
Social Vulnerability
Integrated Risk
Presenter
Presentation Notes
--Sub Province Level Average Annual Economic Loss Social Vulnerability (13) --Aggravation Factor
Physical Seismic Risk Social Vulnerability Integrated Risk
Burton and Silva 2014
Presenter
Presentation Notes
How are we getting there and where do we go from here?
How to represent concepts of social vulnerability and integrated risk?
Data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
***Data, data, everywhere, butt……… --How do we bring all the theory, data, and metrics together under one framework applicable at various levels of geography?
Presenter
Presentation Notes
--National Level Database for the world --Subnational Level Database for Asia Pacific provinces (19 countries) --Subnational database for South America (SARA)
Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Socio-Economic Database
Statistical Approach
Expert Opinion Approach
CorrelationsAnalysis
Completeness
Consultation
Pre-PCA data Processing
Principal Components Analysis
Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Power et al. 2014
Linking Users to the Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Geographically small countries with rapid GDP growth (3.6 – 6.3%) contain a high percentage of foreigners.
Social Vulnerability Data Analysis
The complex relationship between urbanization and poverty
Power et al. 2014 Power et al. 2014
10CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University
How can we operationalize concepts of social vulnerability and integrated
risk?
Open-Source Tool Development
Presenter
Presentation Notes
---How do we develop a tool that supports both top-down and bottom-up approaches to index development? --Criticisms of many indicator studies is they fail to account for stakeholder input, and are over SIMPLIFIED. --What do you do in data poor context?
Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: User Data Inputs
OVERALL GOAL To provide city managers a participatory tool to evaluate and monitor resilience to earthquakes To identify strengths and weaknesses in resilience and produce results which are comparable over time EXPECTED OUTCOMES Localized scorecard for LSMC to show adaptability and long-term use To identify gaps in key thematic areas of resilience To foster discussion and communication among decision-makers, planners, and disaster risk reduction specialists Share lessons and transfer knowledge and capacities within LSMC and among Wards
Presenter
Presentation Notes
--Discuss trips leading up to workshop for context specific questions --Discuss Day 1: 20 out of 22 Wards (Captains, ex Captains, Secretary) --Discuss Day 2: Department Heads (Police, Planning, Community Development, Public Works, Finance, Legal, etc.) --Hand held recievers --Both brought together
Adapt
Cope
Trans-form
Key Dimensions of Urban Resilience
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
Presenter
Presentation Notes
--Resilience is considered a multi-dimensional concept that is visible at multiple levels of a city environment. --Highly dynamic and therefore needs a multi-stage approach to be assessed. --We have defined six main themes of urban resiliency which can be addressed through the scorecard and are derived from the HFA and the UNISDR ten essentials Legal & Institutional Arrangements Social Capacity Critical Services and Public Infrastructure Resiliency Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery Planning, Regulation and Mainstreaming Risk Mitigation Awareness and Advocacy
Yes
Strong
Excellent
Good
Weak
No
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
City Level
Sub-City Level
Awareness &
Advocacy
Social Capacity
Legal and Institutional
Planning and Regulation
Critical Infrastructure and Services
Emergency Preparedness &
Response
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
Presenter
Presentation Notes
--36 Questions along 6 thematic areas --Drafted from UNISR 10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient --Added Social Capacity (i.e. capacity to prepare for, adapt to, and recover from potential earthquake events).
