The pitfall in recent analysis on The pitfall in recent analysis on visible minority voters in Canadavisible minority voters in Canada

−Identification of the coverage bias in a online panels of the polling company

Dr. Jin Lu, Director of EXUPOLI.net

- A Web based Education, Marketing and Engineering Consulting Company

Saturday, April 16, 2011

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ContentsContents1. Data & Analyses Led to Partisan Bias Conclusion2. Identify the Voting Patterns from the Top 16 Canada

Federal Ridings with Largest Visible Minority Population

3. Comparison Study of Patterns Between Online Panels & National Populations

4. The Pitfall that led to the Conclusion with the Partisan Bias & the Root Cause

5. Conclusion & Future Work6. References

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Data (Table 1) & Analyses Led to Data (Table 1) & Analyses Led to Partisan Bias Conclusion [1]Partisan Bias Conclusion [1]

� One conclusion that can be made of all the categories, is that [visible minorities] are less likely to vote Conservative than the overall Canadian population.

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Identify the Voting Patterns from the Identify the Voting Patterns from the Top 16 Canada Federal Ridings with Top 16 Canada Federal Ridings with Largest Visible Minority Population [2]Largest Visible Minority Population [2]

0.15243,637Others

0.34899,756NDP

1.000286,368Liberal

0.642183,719Conservative

Rate Based On Liberal Voters

VotersParty

Table 2 Summary of the Data From Election Canada Web

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Comparison Study of Patterns Between Comparison Study of Patterns Between Online Panels & National PopulationsOnline Panels & National Populations

� Similarity of Two Voting Patterns– {C:L:N}={0.729:1.000:0.476} (Table 1)– {C:L:N}={0.642:1.000:0.348} (Table 2)

� Incompatibility of Visible Minorities (VMs) between Online Panels & National Populations (2006 Statscan Census) in both intra VM ethic groups distribution (Mismatch Patterns)& VMs over whole members (Relative Error = 625.06%)

Unit Demography over Overall Visible Minorities

11.87%

17.26%

All others

16.22%6.00%15.47%39.68%26.98%National Population

2.23%13.68%15.60%22.89%30.56%Online Panels (Table in P.3.)

VMs over Whole MembersLatin

AmericaAfricaOther Asia

Middle EastEast Asia

Visible Minority Ethnic Demography

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The Pitfall that led to the Conclusion with The Pitfall that led to the Conclusion with the Partisan Bias & the Root Causethe Partisan Bias & the Root Cause

� Pitfall: Coverage bias in public opinion poll� Root cause – sampling process filtered out

national wide visible minorities’ voting pattern: – the Panel might not originally build for tracking visible

minorities’ opinion poll – National online voters’ ratio is less than 25% in 2008 [3,

4] so that we might expect much lower ratio for visible minority voters, resembling the experience of the Literary Digest in president election 1936 in USA [5], in which the use of the telephone in the polling filtered out majority middle & low incoming populations

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Conclusion & Future WorkConclusion & Future Work� We believe that our national wide visible

minorities are likely to vote Conservative as the same as the overall Canadian population

� The future work on the online panel for the study of voting patterns & ratio of turn out of the visible minority voters has to be addressed in next federal government

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ReferencesReferences1. {“Barry Kay: One conclusion that can be made of all the categories, is that [visible minorities] are

less likely to vote Conservative than the overall Canadian population.” in Immigrant voting patterns. Retrieved (4/14/2011) from http://www.globalnews.ca/Immigrant+voting+patterns/4570640/story.html} {Barry Kay, Visible Minorities. April 6th, 2011. Retrieved (4/14/2011) from http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog2011/?p=61}

2. The data in the table are compiled from Election Canada Web and the Top 16 Visible Minorities Ridings are listed in Table 1 in {Electoral Participation of Ethnocultural Communities. Dec. 2006. Retrieved (4/14/2011) from www.elections.ca/res/eim/pdf/Insight_2006_12_e.pd}

3. {“Finds Just 6% Discuss Policy and Politics Every Day on Social and News Media Sites but with 21% Participating Weekly, Future Growth Likely” in [The Canadian Federal Election Campaign and Social Media: Ground Breaking Research Measures Participation Rate among Potential Voters During an Election Campaign]} retrieved (2011/4/16) from http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5195.

4. 25% of Canadian voters debating politics on social media: Poll. Retrieved (2011/4/16) from http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Canadian+voters+debating+politics+social+media+Poll/4596209/story.html#ixzz1JiP3OMcA

5. {Public opinion poll. Retrieved (4/16/2011) http://www.conservapedia.com/Public_Opinion_Poll}{“Three groups were surveyed, the readers of The Literary Digest, registered automobile owners and that of telephone users. All three groups had incomes well above the national average of the day.” in The Literary Digest (WIKI) retrieved (4/18/2011) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literary_Digest#Presidential_poll}