YEMEN T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T May 21 – June 15, 2014

Protesters in Sana’a demonstrate against the on-going power cuts to the capital while calling for President Hadi and his government to step down. Many protesters carried pictures of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

SECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW

Security Threat Assessment Following the military campaign against AQAP in the southern governorates, the Yemen army and security forces continued to track down suspected militants throughout Sana’a, Shabwa, Lahj and Abyan during the reporting period. Despite the supposed progress made against the terrorist group, AQAP was able to launch several reprisal attacks against government troops and facilities throughout the country demonstrating their resolve. Power cuts in Marib led to power being shut off in Sana’ for close to four days, which caused protests dominated by GPC supporters in the capital city. As a result of the protests, the government clamped down against supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh by shutting down the Yemen Today television station and surrounding the Saleh Mosque in downtown making much of 70 metre road impassable. Concern is growing in the capital that further conflicts between President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and former President Saleh might expand the protests into violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators. This report assesses issues that have arisen from May 21 to June 15, 2014. Please note that the heat map’s concentrations are higher than usual in key areas of the country. The red areas are larger and centred on areas of Yemen where significant activity have occurred throughout the last two and a half weeks. For a detailed record of security incidents occurring in Yemen, subscribers should refer to SicuroIMS Incident Mapping Platform.

Military Police raided a hotel in Seiyun on June 1 arresting four mid-level AQAP commanders

YEMEN

A large AQAP force conducted a raid on Seiyun early on May 24 that killed at least 30.

A suspected AQAP commander was arrested in Lahj on May 21 as he fled from the Abyan .

AQAP militants opened fire on a bus in Aden killing 9 and wounded a reported 10 on June 15.

Clashes on May 29 between Houthis and tribesmen in Amran led to at least 12 deaths.

Warplanes bombed Houthi locations in Sulatah and Sahab, Amran on June 2 killing a senior leader.

Protests in Sana’a on June 10-12 challenged Hadi’s government to step down

Protests erupted in Aden on May 21 to demonstrate against Unity Day and call for secession.

SECURITY SITUATION REGIONAL OVERVIEW

YEMEN

SABA REGION Trend: • Many of the problems in Sana’a this period stem from power line

cuts in Marib, which occur when tribesmen attack the main power grid for the region. These areas are not well-protected and disruptions can often last for several days. Former President Saleh has strong connections with these tribes.

• A international was kidnapped traveling in Marib to Sana’a, thus becoming the sixth kidnapped person since January.

AZAL REGION Trend: • Protestors took to the streets on June 10 to demonstrate against President

Hadi’s inability to provide basis services to the capital. Only numbering a few hundred, they did call for his downfall and appeared to be comprised mainly of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s supporters.

• President Hadi announced the first significant cabinet reshuffle in his tenure as president. Although announced during the protests, the move has been rumoured for several months, but it was not a sweeping as had been expected.

ADEN REGION Trend: • Discontent in Aden with the trajectory of the Yemen government

and lack of a cohesive Southern solution to the political transition were on display with the May 21 protests in Aden. Secessionists in Dhalae continue their tit-for-tat fighting with the military’s 33rd Brigade

• AQAP is responsible for a number of attacks in the Abyan, Lahj and Aden governorates.

HADRAMOUT REGION Trend: • Reeling from the government offensive in April-May, AQAP

demonstrated their continued capacity to launch attacks on military targets throughout Shabwa and Seiyun.

• Assassination attempts against security officials continued throughout the Hadramout region as a sign of the political unrest that exists in the area. These assassinations can be attributed to both AQAP and the former regime.

TEHAMA REGION Trend: • Saudi border guards arrested one and shot four Yemenis near the shared border with Hajja on

June 2. The refugees from the Haradh camp were trying to re-enter Saudi Arabia illegally. This area received an influx in refugees late last year when the Saudi government expelled hundreds of thousands of Yemeni migrant workers in the Kingdom. Increased criminality in the region should be expected during Ramadan.

JANAD REGION Trend: • Police arrested a 27-year-old AQAP recruiter in Taiz on charges of attempting to recruit members

to his cause. AQAP has often had recruiters/cells operating in Taiz; however rarely do the attacks occur in this region.

• As the Houthi conflict heated up in Amran, the Houthi presence in Ibb became becomes of greater concern to authorities. While they remained relatively peaceful in Ibb this time, it is an area to watch.

SECURITY SITUATION Cabinet Reshuffle

YEMEN

Cabinet Reshuffle

• Ahmed Obaid Ben Daghr, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Telecommunications and Information

• Abdullah Mohsen Al-Akwa, Deputy Prime Minister, Ministry of Electricity • Nasr Taha, Minister of Information • Ahmed Abdulqader Shayeh, Misister of Oil and Minerals • Mohammed Mansour Zemam, Minister of Finance • Ahmed Awadh Bin Mubarak, Executive Director of the President’s Office (former secretary-general

of NDC and CDC) • Mansour Ali Al-Butani, Secretary General of the Presidency • Sakhr Al-Wajeeh, Governor of Hodaidah • Dr. Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi, Member of the Shura Council • Ahmed Obaid Al-Fadhli, Member of the Shura Council • Hussam Al-Sharjabi, Vice Minister of Finance • Fuad Al-Hemyari, Vice Minister of Information • Jamal al-Sallah, Minister of Foreign Affairs (former Yemen envoy to the UN)

The announcement made by President Hadi on June 11 marks the first majorcabinet reshuffle since he took office in February 2012. While a couple ministers were replaced earlier this year, a major shakeup has been expected for months. It remains to be seen what the mandate of this new cabinet is; however, expectations are low as a power-sharing arrangement of the cabinet and sub-cabinet positions between the GPC and Islah still dominates the remaining portfolio positions. Further, Islah effectively dominates the civil service positions and is unlikely to allow significant reforms to be undertaken.

SECURITY SITUATION

JANAD REGION (TAIZ AND IBB)

YEMEN

Gunmen stormed the Yemeni Women’s Development Office in Ibb on May 27 in an attempt to remove the director, Bushra al-Sana’ani from her position.

More than 60 migrants died on approximately May 30-31 as their boat sank off the coast of the Bab El Mandeb coastline. Mostly Somali and Ethiopian migrants died. This is the largest single incident of migrants dying this year; however, the incident is not uncommon. The death toll this year is at least 121. Many from the Horn of Africa come to Yemen for job opportunities or as a gateway to the richer Gulf countries.

TEHAMA REGION (HAJJA, MAHWET, HODEIDA AND RAYMA)

Residents in the Al-Ragam district in Mahwet clashed on May 29 over an on-going property dispute. Residents of the Gabal Anham and Mazoaq villages clashed over a area where both claimed ownership. Property disputes are common in Yemen. Two died in the fighting and four were injured. Police arrested two more.

Police arrested a 27-year-old AQAP recruiter in Taiz on charges of attempting to recruit members to his cause.

Three gunmen broke into a shop in the Gibla area of Ibb on Friday and killed the owner. The owner died when he chased the robbers and tried to kill them with his own weapon.

Saudi border guards arrested one and shot four Yemenis near the shared border with Hajja on June 2. The refugees from the Haradh camp were trying to re-enter Saudi Arabia illegally.

SECURITY SITUATION AZAL REGION (SAADA, AMRAN, SANA’A AND DHAMAR)

YEMEN

Protests erupted in Sana’a on June 10 as demonstrators called for the downfall of President Hadi’s government. Reports of tyres being burned and troops loyal to the president locking down the central area around the presidential palace were commonplace. Protestors could be seen holding pictures of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Fierce clashes erupted between Houthis and the Yemeni military in Al-Jamima and Beit al-Rabuo’ee on the northern outskirts of Amran on May 23. This follows reports of Houthi forces moving to the governorate last week from Sa’ada.

Warplanes bombed Houthi locations in Sulatah and Sahab, Amran on June 2 killing a senior leader. These were in response to an attack on a military checkpoint earlier in the day.

Houthis clashed with military forces following the failure of tribal mediation efforts on May 21. At least four soldiers and four tribesmen died in the clashes. Clashes resumed earlier in the week after a ceasefire expired.

Guardsmen loyal to President Hadi raided the television studios of Yemen Today, long-viewed as a mouthpiece of the GPC and former President Saleh, who had used the channel during the recent protests to call people to the street. Hadi said the station was leading to “incitements of disturbances).

Anti-terrorism units arrested twelve AQAP suspects in a raid of the Ahrab district of Sana’a on May 25. Three militants were killed. Of those arrested, eight are Saudi nationals. In retaliation for the raid, a senior intelligence officer was assassinated in the area. Although not confirmed to be part of this raid, the government announced they had killed Abu Yasir, a top AQAP commander on May 26.

On May 21, Rajinder Singh Verdi, a British national, was arrested and deported in Sana’a after trying to leave the airport with 16 Yemeni artefacts dating to the Stone Age. He works for an oil company in Yemen.

Gunmen shot at Prime Minister Mohammed Salim Basindawa’s house on June 2 after UN Envoy Jamal Benomar left his house.

Counter terrorism united raided two suspected terrorist hideouts in Sana’a on May 27 killing one of the movement’s leaders near Tunisia Street in downtown. Forces also raided the Beit Al-Adhari neighbourhood in the Arhab district again.

Clashes between Houthis and tribesmen erupted on May 29 killing at least 12 in Amran. The tribesmen, affiliated with Islah, were manning a checkpoint near the city.

SECURITY SITUATION ADEN REGION (LAHJ, DHALAE, ADEN AND ABYAN)

YEMEN

Armoured vehicles in the Snah area of Dhalae were hit by an IED on May 27, killing a member of the Southern Movement (Hirak Al-Janoubi) and a grocer. One soldiers was wounded.

The commander of the 33rd Brigade in Dhalae survived an assassination attempt on June 2 when visiting a base in the area.

A suspected AQAP commander was arrested in Lahj on May 21 as he fled from the Abyan province. Identified as Mu’az Majid al-Hamid Al-Asiri, a Saudi national, the military considers his arrest as part of the self-labeled “sweep up” operations resulting from their proclaimed successful military offensive in Abyan/Shabwa against AQAP.

Gunmen attacked a army post in Mahfad, Abyan on June 14 with VBIED. The reported attack is being attributed to AQAP.

Gunmen shot and killed a security officer near the Ashreen Camp in Aden on May 28. This is located in the Crater area of Aden.

Hameed Al-Tawil, a intelligence colonel, died in a drive-by shooting in Lahj on May 31. Gunmen shot the colonel several times in the head before fleeing.

Protestors blocked the roads in Mansoura, Khormaksar and Sira in Aden on June 11 following a twelve hour cut in electricity to the governorate. Led by the Southern Movement, the protests were similar to those in Sana’a as tyres were burned and police intervened.

A military vehicle was attacked in Dhalea by an IED on June 8. No injuries were reported.

Military forces clashed with gunmen on June 8 in Lahj. The fighting came when the gunmen reportedly demanded the release of detainees held by authorities.

Suspected AQAP militants attacked a police checkpoint in Lahj on June 10 with RGPS on the main road to the Anad military base.

SECURITY SITUATION SHEBA REGION (JAWF, MAREB AND BAIYDA)

YEMEN

A suicide bomber exploded at a Houthi checkpoint in Jawf on May 23 causing an uncertain number of casualties.

Tribesmen sabotaged the main power line in Marib on June 10, which caused a complete shutdown of the power grid in the capital. This led to a shutdown of power for at least four days continuously in Sana’a, sparking protests in the capital led by GPC allies.

Fibre optic cables that provide internet and telephone service to the capital were cut in late May/early June, which caused service disruption throughout the region. This is a common occurrence.

An expat employee of a US oil company was kidnapped by armed tribesmen while driving to Sana’a from Maribe on June 8. Security forces cordoned off the highway. This makes the sixth foreigner kidnapped in three months.

Masked gunmen on a motorcycle shot and killed the secretary-general of the Baiyda local council on May 21. Abdullah Abu Talib was driving near the public library in Rada’a when militants opened fire on his car.

A suspected US drone strike hit an AQAP vehicle traveling from central Marib on June 4 near to Moghafar, just east of Wadi Obaida. Early reports suggest that four died in the strike, including a commander named Jafar al-Shabwani.

SECURITY SITUATION HADRAMOUT REGION (SHABWA)

YEMEN

The Army shelled AQAP positions near al-Saeed in Shabwa on May 22 leading to the death of six civilians. The innocent tribesmen died when a shell hit a pick-up truck on accident.

A roadside bomb hit a military patrol vehicle and nearby civilian car on May 23 on the main road between Ataq and Naqbah on Friday, Four civilians and three others were injured.

A large AQAP force conducted a raid on Seiyun early on May 24 that killed at least 30. While the government has regained control of the city, the militants attacked at least seven major installations, including the military headquarters, police station, airport and main banks. Some reports suggest that the militants were wearing Yemeni Army uniforms, a common tactic of AQAP militants. Fighting occurred throughout the early morning until repelled by the military, which deployed fighter jets to follow the retreating AQAP militants.

Suspected AQAP militants attacked a checkpoint in Bayhan on June 5. The early morning attack killed 17 police and wounded several others. The militants attacked in two pickup trucks firing RPGS and other explosives. Several armoured cars were torched in the attack.

The military deployed units to the Jabal Ridah, Hura and Maifa areas in Shabwa on June 5 following increasing instances of instability. The units are meant to restore stability to the areas.

Two suicide attacks were stopped near the Banafea Hospital in Ataq on June 11by security forces.

Yemeni forces directed a targeted strike on suspected terrorists in Ataq on June 13 killing four suspects and destroying a weapons depot.

On late June 14, three suspected AQAP militants died in an apparent drone strike in the Mafraq al-Saeed area of Shabwa while they were traveling in a vehicle.

SECURITY SITUATION HADRAMOUT REGION (HADRAMOUT AND MAHRA)

YEMEN

Two gunmen shot and killed Colonel Salmin al-Obatani and his son on May 29 as they travelled back to their home in Mukallah, Hadramout. The gunmen attacked from a motorcycle and killed the intelligence officer with automatic weapons

Military Police raided a hotel in Seiyun on June 1 arresting four mid-level AQAP commanders reportedly involved in recent assassination campaigns in the area.

A high-ranking security officer survived an assassination attempt in Seiyun on June 1 afternoon after gunmen opened fire on his military car.

In Wadi Hadramout, police clashed with AQAP militants on June 4 at a checkpoint. The clashes broke out when a vehicle with explosives and weapons was stopped by police at the checkpoint.

A bomb disposal unit in Seiyun removed a explosive devise near a police camp in the city on June 6.

Gunmen shot and killed a CID officer in Ghayl Ba Wazir on June 11 in the Hadramout governorate, reportedly near the Bawazer Mosque.

CONCLUSION ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS

YEMEN

Despite the on-going campaign in the South against AQAP, Unity Day proceeded with less violence than expected. The government anticipated the May 22nd Holiday as a display of unity against AQAP following a harsh campaign against the militant group in the previous five weeks. The rather quiet celebration was not echoed in the South where several thousand took to the streets in Aden to protest against the government and for Southern independence. While fighting slowed down during the report period in the South between the government and AQAP, it remains unclear what impact the campaign had on AQAP’s presence in the country. Military officials reported that several hundred AQAP militants died in addition to dozens of Yemeni soldiers; however, little independent reporting exists and many believe the government’s casualties are extremely underestimated while the death toll for AQAP is exaggerated. Regardless, attacks over the past two weeks indicate that AQAP still maintains a significant presence throughout Abyan, Shabwa, Lahj and several other governorates and is able to launch attacks. The government shifted focus away from the South this last week and focused instead on the Arhab district in Sana’a where several raids led to the death of numerous AQAP suspects including Abu Yasser (Saleh Hadi Tays). Meanwhile, service delivery in the capital of Sana’a continued to decline and further impact the public’s perception of a government unable to meet the needs of its people. Protests erupted in Sana’a on June 10 after the capital entered its second day without electricity. In the main areas of Sana’a (near the Hadda Post Office) and near the presidential palace, protesters took to the street with messages calling for the downfall of the current government led by President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Protesters burned tires and held pictures of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh who stepped down from the country’s top post after the signing of the Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement in November 2011. While removed from power, Saleh remains in Yemen, exercises considerable power as he heads the General People’s Congress (GPC), the country’s largest political party, and maintains considerable personal wealth as a result of his large real estate holdings and business connections. Saleh has long-been believed to be behind some of the armed tribal attacks against the power infrastructure in Marib and the on-going assassination campaigns of military/security officials throughout the South. Without question the protesters are linked to the GPC and and reliable sources on the ground suggest many of Saleh’s thugs have been stirring up trouble between the protesters and soldiers deployed to contain the demonstrations. The protests are a direct challenge by Saleh against Hadi’s government. In response, Hadi ordered the military to shutdown the pro-GPC Yemen Today and confiscate the equipment. His cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday has been in the making for several months, but its announcement on June 11 was meant as a signal to the people of Yemen who were not protesting that changes will be coming. However, the power sharing arrangement reached between Islah and the GPC to form the original cabinet appears to remain largely unchanged with the recent shake-up. Noticeably absent from the list in the cabinet reshuffle is Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa, who retains his post. His departure has been speculated for months and might signal that more reshuffling will occur in the near future. Some rumours are circulating that former Prime Minster Haider al-Attas, a prominent Southerner and leader in the Hirak Movement, might replace him. Fighting between the Houthis and the government resumed in Amran and surrounding governorates during the reporting period as a ceasefire reached earlier in the year elapsed. Since last October, the Houthis have taken advantaged of a deteriorating security situation throughout the country and the government’s pre-occupation with AQAP in the South to expand its area of influence from the northern Sa’ada governorate. Clashes on May 20 between Houthis and Islah-backed tribesmen in Amran led to the deaths of at least 25. The fighting continued for a week in Amran before the government reached a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis on June 4. In the three days before the agreement was reached, an estimated 140 people died. As part of the ceasefire agreement, the Houthis released 100 soldiers held prisoner while the government guaranteed the safe return of those who had fled Amran during the fighting. Also, the government agreed to replace Amran’s governor. In the past year, the Houthis have made incredible gains in the north as they have expanded their influence from Sa’ada following the October clashes in Dammaj. The government has largely been unable to intervene due to pressures from AQAP in the South, thus leaving fighting between the Houthis and tribesmen affiliated with the Isalh Party. The short-term ceasefire allows the Houthis to re-arm and prepare for renewed conflict. Of great concern in renewed fighting would be the Houthis ability to control the Amran-Sana’a highway.

YEMEN May 21 – June 15, 2014

With the appointment of Ahmed Awadh Bin Mubarak to the President’s Office staff, it remains unclear who will replace him at the helm of the technical secretariat responsible for managing the Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC). Previously, he guided the National Dialogue Conference (NDC), but was criticized for receiving an out-sized salary of $240,000 per year to lead that process. Little news is emerging from the CDC; however, it appears they remain on-track to publish the first draft of the constitution following the end of Ramadan. Some reports suggest that President Hadi’s fascination with the German federal model might be shaping the committee’s approach to developing a federal structure for Yemen; however, it is unlikely the first draft will present a fully developed concept to be debated and discussed. In conversations with international experts, the CDC (which visited German) is acting independent of international experts and only seeking clarification and guidance when particular issues arise. Also on the political front, the French Embassy reopened on May 27 after several weeks of closure due to security threats. Similarly, the US Embassy “re-opened” with the arrival of the new Ambassador Matthew H. Tueller, a member of the senior foreign service. A graduate of Brigham Young University and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Ambassador Tueller has held postings in many Arab countries, including the old consulate in Aden. Fluent in Arabic, Mr. Tueller comes well-versed in politics, but not counter-terrorism which might signal the US’s interest in shaping the remaining phases of the transition process while leaving the counter-terrorism relationships to the military an intelligence community. Known as a good listener, Ambassador Tueller presented his credentials to President Hadi on June 10. Increasingly, the US Embassy staff limited in movement and few get outside the Sheraton compound or Embassy grounds, thus limiting the visibility—for security reasons—of Embassy staff. As the US and French announced their reopening, the EU mission apparently quietly informed the President’s Office of its indefinite departure from the country. While not confirmed, a June 9 meeting between the President and head of the EU mission did occur where notice was given. This fits with other international organizations and missions who are preparing to drawdown staff toward the end of June as Ramadan begins. The first pilot phase of the biometric voter registration period in Constituency 10 of Sana’a is concluding this month after approximately 5 weeks of testing. Despite expectations that the process would be marred by technical flaws, limited electricity, lack of procedural understanding and, possibly, security concerns, period exceeded expectations. An estimated 23,000 were able to register to vote and the Supreme Committee for Elections and Referendum (SCER) demonstrated an ability to adapt the process in order to speed up registration time. While this is an extremely small pilot in a relatively well-developed part of Sana’a, it does provide some optimism that the pilot process can be expanded to Aden after Ramadan with a nation-wide launch in September. However, the SCER faces significant obstacles recruiting enough workers to staff voter registration centres and it is still unclear whether or not Southerners will turn out to register. It is likely this will be the only registration period until the constitutional referendum.

ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS

YEMEN May 21 – June 15, 2014

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THREAT ASSESSMENT

Last year, Ramadan proved to be a dangerous time in Sana’a for internationals and most left toward the end of the holiday with the US and foreign governments issuing a forced evacuation notice due to terrorist threats. It is highly recommended all internationals in Yemen depart for the entirety of the Ramadan holiday. Fuel shortages continue, thus growing concern exists that supplies will continue to shrink as the holiday season approaches. Prices are doubling to approximately 450 Yemeni Riyal per litre from earlier this year for petrol. Coupled with limited fuel supplies, the cost of remaining in country from a physical security perspective outweigh the reasons to be in-country as the end of the month approaches. Due to the government’s campaign against AQAP and continued police action against hideouts in Sana’a, it should be expected that future attacks are probably, if not likely, in retribution. In the past, AQAP has demonstrated its sophistication in launch multi-front attacks against military bases and hospitals throughout Sana’a and the South, which were high-profile. Installations prime for targeting would be oil facilities, government military bases, ministries, prisons and other areas where government presence is high. While intentional targeting of non-Yemenis is not yet a typical behaviour of the terrorist group, there is popular sentiment throughout the country against drone strikes by Americans, which indicates that it is not out of the realm of possibility that future attacks might occur against Western targets, such as embassies and/or hotels. Internationals are encouraged to avoid these facilities unless absolutely necessary. Kidnapping remains the main threat against international targets. These attempts typically occur when movements are taking place between two locations. Drivers should avoid evening movements and vary daily routines to avoid surveillance. As indicated previously in these reports, grocery stores and popular restaurants are prime scouting locations for would-be kidnappers, thus it is strongly recommended that internationals avoid these locations and find alternative means to procure goods and services. Public transportation/taxis should not be used. Recent reports that both Sana’a and Aden’s airport had been subject to terrorist plots is of concern as it is the only two ways in and out of the country (note – there are limited international flights from Hodeidah). It is advisable to maintain necessary supplies for a stand-fast situation in case transportation out of the country is not possible for several days.