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This event with King's College London brought together some of the most experienced leaders and thinkers in British politics over the last 30 years to look at what makes a great political leader and the implications for those leading parties into the next general election. Panel: Rt Hon Lord (Paddy) Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon GCMG KBE; Rt Hon Lord (Douglas) Hurd of Westwell CH CBE; Rt Hon Lord (Neil) Kinnock; Professor (Lord) Kenneth O. Morgan, Visiting Professor in the Institute of Contemporary British History, King’s College London; Ben Page, Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI; Andrew Rawnsley, The Observer, Chief Political Commentator; Dr Elizabeth Vallance, Chair of I CAN (chair) Our survey: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3329/Kings-College-London-Ipsos-MORI-political-leadership-poll.aspx
Citation preview
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Political Leadership How much does it matter?
Political Leadership What matters?
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
4.4 4.7
4.1 4.2 4.6
4.0 3.8
3.5 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.1
3.9 3.8
2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4
2.1 2.2
0
1
2
3
4
51
98
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
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4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the
party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you,
how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818)
2010 – the most presidential election ever?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Mean scores shown
Leaders
Party
Policies
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
4.4 4.7
4.1 4.2 4.6
4.0 3.8
4.1
3.5 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.1
3.9 3.8
2.6
2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4
2.1 2.2
3.3
0
1
2
3
4
51
98
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the
party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you,
how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818)
A pox on all your houses since the election?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Mean scores shown
Leaders
Party
Policies
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the
party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you,
how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (December 2013= 818)
Crosser than ever…..
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Month and Year
Political Triangle
‘Leaders’ mean score
Leaders’ average
satisfaction rating
(Lab, Con & SDP/ Lib Dem)
June 1987 3.5 -3
April 1992 3.2 +8
April 1997 3.4 +8
May 2001 3.2 -5
April 2005 3.1 -8
August 2008 3.9 -6
February 2010 3.8 0.0
December 2013 2.6 -22
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Which of these statements comes closest to your views of …..?
Not made easier by the rise of new
challengers: is Boris the new Disraeli?
Ed
Miliband
David
Cameron
Boris
Johnson
I like him and I like his party 23 27 I like him and I like his policies 39
I like him but I do not like his party 7 16 I like him but I do not like his policies 20
I do not like him but I like his party 26 11 I do not like him but I like his policies 5
I do not like him and I do not like his party 37 41 I do not like him and I do not like his policies 18
Don't know 23 27 Don't know 18
Total like him 30 43 Total like him 59
Total do not like him 63 52 Total do not like him 23
Total like his party 49 38 Total like his policies 44
Total do not like his party 44 57 Total do not like his policies 38
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 (Miliband/Cameron);
1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 (Boris Johnson)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
18
24
73
69
We agree with Churchill– democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
% Agree % Disagree
We should replace elected
politicians who run Britain
with professional managers
The quality of political
leaders today is better than
it has been in the past
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
What
really
matters?
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
26 29
50
52
64 64
71
76 81 82
87
89
93
... has got a lot of personality
… likeable
... is patriotic
... is experienced
… understands the fine details of policies
… has experience of life outside politics
... understands world problems
... is more honest than most politicians
... has sound judgement
... is in touch with ordinary people
... is good in a crisis
... is capable
... understands the problems facing Britain
What people SAY makes a good Prime Minister
For each of the following, how important, if at all, would you say the things I am going to read out are to make
a good Prime Minister?
Base: 503 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
That the party’s leader... % ‘very important’
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Who’s ahead on these factors?
Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage
Understands
problems facing GB
1st 1st
Capable 1st
Good in a crisis 1st
In touch with
ordinary people worst
Sound judgement 1st
Trustworthy 1st 1st
And on the least important issues
Likeable 1st
Personality 1st
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
What does
the past
tell us?
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Perceptions of the more honest politician in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown
Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
18
30
16
10
22
16
11
22
28 26
18
27
18
29
21
25 23
13
20
0
10
20
30
40
Sep
-78
Nov-7
8Ja
n-7
9M
ar-
79
Ma
y-7
9Ju
l-7
9S
ep
-79
Nov-7
9Ja
n-8
0M
ar-
80
Ma
y-8
0Ju
l-8
0S
ep
-80
Nov-8
0Ja
n-8
1M
ar-
81
Ma
y-8
1Ju
l-8
1S
ep
-81
Nov-8
1Ja
n-8
2M
ar-
82
Ma
y-8
2Ju
l-8
2S
ep
-82
Nov-8
2Ja
n-8
3M
ar-
83
Ma
y-8
3Ju
l-8
3S
ep
-83
Nov-8
3Ja
n-8
4M
ar-
84
Ma
y-8
4Ju
l-8
4S
ep
-84
Nov-8
4Ja
n-8
5M
ar-
85
Ma
y-8
5Ju
l-8
5S
ep
-85
Nov-8
5Ja
n-8
6M
ar-
86
Ma
y-8
6Ju
l-8
6S
ep
-86
Nov-8
6Ja
n-8
7M
ar-
87
Ma
y-8
7Ju
l-8
7S
ep
-87
Nov-8
7Ja
n-8
8M
ar-
88
Ma
y-8
8Ju
l-8
8S
ep
-88
Nov-8
8Ja
n-8
9M
ar-
89
Ma
y-8
9Ju
l-8
9S
ep
-89
Nov-8
9Ja
n-9
0M
ar-
90
Ma
y-9
0Ju
l-9
0S
ep
-90
Nov-9
0
Foot
Thatcher
Callaghan
Ashdown
Kinnock
1979 General Election
1983 General Election
1987 General Election
More honest than most politicians
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
14
11
24 18
22
15
20 16
20
36
27
21
16
25
8
10
22
29
44
25 24
25
31
28
34
32
39
29
22
18
9
12
9
11
8
11
7 9
22 25
31
0
10
20
30
40
Ja
n-9
0A
pr-
90
Ju
l-9
0O
ct-
90
Ja
n-9
1A
pr-
91
Ju
l-9
1O
ct-
91
Ja
n-9
2A
pr-
92
Ju
l-9
2O
ct-
92
Ja
n-9
3A
pr-
93
Ju
l-9
3O
ct-
93
Ja
n-9
4A
pr-
94
Ju
l-9
4O
ct-
94
Ja
n-9
5A
pr-
95
Ju
l-9
5O
ct-
95
Ja
n-9
6A
pr-
96
Ju
l-9
6O
ct-
96
Ja
n-9
7A
pr-
97
Ju
l-9
7O
ct-
97
Ja
n-9
8A
pr-
98
Ju
l-9
8O
ct-
98
Ja
n-9
9A
pr-
99
Ju
l-9
9O
ct-
99
Ja
n-0
0A
pr-
00
Ju
l-0
0O
ct-
00
Ja
n-0
1A
pr-
01
Ju
l-0
1O
ct-
01
Ja
n-0
2A
pr-
02
Ju
l-0
2O
ct-
02
Ja
n-0
3A
pr-
03
Ju
l-0
3O
ct-
03
Ja
n-0
4A
pr-
04
Ju
l-0
4O
ct-
04
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Perceptions of the more honest
politician in the 1990s & 2000s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard
Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Kinnock
Thatcher
Smith
Ashdown
Blair
1992 General Election
1997 General Election
2001 General Election
More honest than most politicians
Hague IDS
Howard
Major
Kennedy
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Most capable leader in the 1980s Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Callaghan/ Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Foot/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Ashdown
Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time
25
44
62
34
59
46 51
45
34
39
18
9
21
37
24 30
15
27 26
15
34
21 20
24
9
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep
-78
Nov-7
8Ja
n-7
9M
ar-
79
Ma
y-7
9Ju
l-7
9S
ep
-79
Nov-7
9Ja
n-8
0M
ar-
80
Ma
y-8
0Ju
l-8
0S
ep
-80
Nov-8
0Ja
n-8
1M
ar-
81
Ma
y-8
1Ju
l-8
1S
ep
-81
Nov-8
1Ja
n-8
2M
ar-
82
Ma
y-8
2Ju
l-8
2S
ep
-82
Nov-8
2Ja
n-8
3M
ar-
83
Ma
y-8
3Ju
l-8
3S
ep
-83
Nov-8
3Ja
n-8
4M
ar-
84
Ma
y-8
4Ju
l-8
4S
ep
-84
Nov-8
4Ja
n-8
5M
ar-
85
Ma
y-8
5Ju
l-8
5S
ep
-85
Nov-8
5Ja
n-8
6M
ar-
86
Ma
y-8
6Ju
l-8
6S
ep
-86
Nov-8
6Ja
n-8
7M
ar-
87
Ma
y-8
7Ju
l-8
7S
ep
-87
Nov-8
7Ja
n-8
8M
ar-
88
Ma
y-8
8Ju
l-8
8S
ep
-88
Nov-8
8Ja
n-8
9M
ar-
89
Ma
y-8
9Ju
l-8
9S
ep
-89
Nov-8
9Ja
n-9
0M
ar-
90
Ma
y-9
0Ju
l-9
0S
ep
-90
Nov-9
0
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Foot
Thatcher
Callaghan
Ashdown
Kinnock
1979 General Election
1983 General Election
1987 General Election
A capable leader
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Most capable leader in the 1990s & 2000s
Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mrs Thatcher/ Mr Kinnock/ Mr Major/ Mr Smith/ Mr Ashdown/ Mr Hague/ Mr Kennedy/ Mr Duncan Smith/ Mr Howard
Base: c. 2,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
A capable leader
39
24 19
37
19
23 19
33
58
51
44
29
51
30
34
9
47
26
34
39
44
52
11 14
22
9
10 12
10 9
15
20
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ja
n-9
0A
pr-
90
Ju
l-9
0O
ct-
90
Ja
n-9
1A
pr-
91
Ju
l-9
1O
ct-
91
Ja
n-9
2A
pr-
92
Ju
l-9
2O
ct-
92
Ja
n-9
3A
pr-
93
Ju
l-9
3O
ct-
93
Ja
n-9
4A
pr-
94
Ju
l-9
4O
ct-
94
Ja
n-9
5A
pr-
95
Ju
l-9
5O
ct-
95
Ja
n-9
6A
pr-
96
Ju
l-9
6O
ct-
96
Ja
n-9
7A
pr-
97
Ju
l-9
7O
ct-
97
Ja
n-9
8A
pr-
98
Ju
l-9
8O
ct-
98
Ja
n-9
9A
pr-
99
Ju
l-9
9O
ct-
99
Ja
n-0
0A
pr-
00
Ju
l-0
0O
ct-
00
Ja
n-0
1A
pr-
01
Ju
l-0
1O
ct-
01
Ja
n-0
2A
pr-
02
Ju
l-0
2O
ct-
02
Ja
n-0
3A
pr-
03
Ju
l-0
3O
ct-
03
Ja
n-0
4A
pr-
04
Ju
l-0
4O
ct-
04
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Kinnock
Thatcher
Smith
Ashdown
1992 General Election
1997 General Election
2001 General Election
Hague
Howard Major
Kennedy
IDS
30
Blair
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
But are all our leaders doomed to disappoint? Even lower expectations of politicians than of government
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9th December 2013, split sampled across two statements (508 and 503 British adults 18+ respectively) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
41
59
48
29 We now expect more
from government
than we do from God
We now expect more
from politicians
than we do from God
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
What do
politicians say?
- The grim
realities of power
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
“In truth Disraeli’s legacy is
not political but personal.
He was tolerant in an age when intolerance
was normal. He was marvellously witty at a
time when pomposity was treated as a
virtue. He emphasised the importance of
individual and national character when
others were concerned with the details of
legislation. He made, and still makes,
politics exciting to people who otherwise
find it dull. He was imaginative to excess,
and unstintingly brave.
… At the heart of Disraeli’s beliefs lay the
thought that imagination and courage are
the indispensable components of political
greatness.”
So does character matter?
Douglas Hurd
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
What they say matters
I think it’s incredibly complicated. The
public’s view of what leadership is
about is a sort of generalissimo
command and control leadership
which is rarely very appropriate in the
complex environment you’re working
in these days
The first thing is knowing where you want
to go, and the second thing is finding the
best route for getting there, which isn’t
always the quickest route, because you
have to take people with you. I think the
important thing is that you can adapt your
leadership style to suit the situation.
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Final thoughts…
1. Competence
matters more
than
empathy,
personality
or “honesty”,
but it helps
to have
some
character
2. Party
management is
often over-
looked as a key
factor in
success;
politicians have
much less
choice in their
colleagues than
Chief Executives
3. The public
want political
leadership,
however little
they say they
now respect
or trust
politicians (or
ever have)
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Political Leadership How much does it matter? Thank you