New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114

July 23, 2014 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: JOHN DIEZ, 225-‐485-‐0405, [email protected] Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of

defeating Jeanne Shaheen. Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-‐17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire.

Summary Findings Consistent with other surveys, the overall political environment in New Hampshire favors Republicans.

• Only 35% of likely voters think things in the country are headed in the right direction, while 65% think things are on the wrong track.

• President Obama’s job approval is an abysmal 36%, while a strong majority (56%) disapproves of the job he is doing.

A traditional demographic shift in previous mid-‐term elections benefits Republican candidates.

• In the past two presidential elections, female voters have enjoyed a 6 point advantage over men relative to total composition of the electorate. During the past two mid-‐term elections, the female advantage has been only 2 points.

• Young voters (18-‐34) represented 28% and 22% of the electorate in 2012 and 2008, respectively. However, during the past two mid-‐terms, young voters have fluctuated between 10% and 14%.

• Mid-‐term elections have also historically produced a Republican advantage relative to party composition of the electorate. During the last two presidential elections, the Republican advantage over Democrats on average was only 3.8 points. However, during the last two mid-‐terms, the Republican advantage averaged 8.3 points.

Magellan ID#: NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Page 2 of 6 Field Dates: 7/16/14 -‐ 7/17/14, MOE +/-‐2.43%, 1,618n

Magellan Strategies | 12491 Plantation Creek Drive | Geismar, LA 70734

225-‐622-‐6249 | MagellanStrategies.com

As a result of an abysmal political environment and mid-‐term election demographics, Scott Brown is in a respectable position to defeat Jeanne Shaheen.

• Currently, Scott Brown is only down by 5 points (41% Scott Brown/46% Jeanne Shaheen) with 13% undecided.

• Among undecided voters, President Obama’s job approval is only 10% while 72% disapprove.

• Among undecided voters, only 14% think things in the country are going in the right direction while 86% think things are on the wrong track.

• Lastly, Brown still has room to grow among undecided voters. Fifty-‐three percent of undecided voters have yet to form an opinion of him.

Survey Methodology: The survey results have been weighted to better reflect the likely demographic characteristics of previous mid-‐term elections. Based on an analysis of the last four election cycles, mid-‐term election year demographics tend to be more favorable to Republican candidates. While presidential election year demographics are generally more favorable to Democratic candidates.

+4

+11

+3

SURVEY

2012 GEN

2010 GEN

2008 GEN

2006 GEN

35%

31%

39%

32%

38%

30%

27%

28%

29%

32%

36%

42%

34%

39%

30%

PARTY REGISTRATION

GOP DEM IND

+6

GOP Advantage




SURVEY

2012 GEN

2010 GEN

2008 GEN

2006 GEN

13%

28%

14%

22%

10%

14%

12%

14%

18%

18%

25%

20%

24%

24%

27%

24%

19%

24%

19%

23%

23%

20%

24%

17%

21%

AGE

18-‐34 35-‐44 45-‐54 55-‐64 65+

SURVEY

2012 GEN

2010 GEN

2008 GEN

2006 GEN

51%

53%

51%

53%

51%

49%

47%

49%

47%

49%

GENDER

FEMALE MALE

Female Advantage

+6

+2

+6

+2

Age 18-‐34

28%

14%

22%

10%




MAGELLAN ID#:NHSTW-‐0714-‐A Sample Size=1,618n;+/-‐2.43% Field Date: 07/16-‐17/14 Hello, this is ________________ calling on behalf of Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. We’re conducting a quick survey with people in NEW HAMPSHIRE this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. Q 1. How likely are you to vote in the up-‐coming elections for Governor and US Senate?

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE

85.9%

VERY LIKELY TO VOTE

9.2%

SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE

5.0%

Q 2. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten

off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION

35.1%

WRONG TRACK

64.9%

Q 3. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two

candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE

42.1%

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

36.3%

UNDECIDED

21.6%

Thinking now about people active in government… Q 4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?

FAVORABLE

34.5%

UNFAVORABLE

43.0%

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION

20.0%

NEVER HEARD OF

2.5%




Thinking now about people active in government… Q 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen?

FAVORABLE

46.9%

UNFAVORABLE

43.0%

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION

9.0%

NEVER HEARD OF

1.1%

Q 6. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as

President?

APPROVE

36.1%

DISAPPROVE

56.2%

UNDECIDED

7.6%

Thinking now about the 2014 election for US Senate... Q 7-‐9. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates

were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat?

SCOTT BROWN

41.1%

JEANNE SHAHEEN

46.0%

UNDECIDED

12.9%

DEFINITELY BROWN

25.9%

PROBABLY BROWN

15.2%

PROBABLY SHAHEEN

10.5%

DEFINITELY SHAHEEN

35.5%

Q 10. These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. Are you a male or female?

MALE

49.0%

FEMALE

51.0%




Q 11-‐13.Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote?

REPUBLICAN

34.6%

DEMOCRAT

29.9%

INDEPENDENT OR OTHER

35.5%

STR REPUBLICAN

23.7%

NSS REPUBLICAN

10.9%

NSS DEMOCRATIC

9.8%

STR DEMOCRAT

20.1%

Q 14. Which of the following age group applies to you?

18-‐34

13.0%

35-‐44

14.4%

45-‐54

25.1%

55-‐64

24.3%

65 PLUS

23.2%

News & Politics

New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114