MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY

CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE

THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO

BEING DISASTER RESILIENT

THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

• Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards

A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD

• 7 billion people, and growing while…• Living and competing in an

interconnected global economy,• Producing $60 trillion of products each

year, and• Facing complex disasters every year

that can adversely impact a community’s 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.

THE 3 S’s

• SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of recurring natural hazards)

• SECURITY • SUSTAINABILITY

THE FIVE E’s

• ECONOMY• ENERGY• ENVIRONMENT• ECOLOGY• EDUCATION

THE 1 H

• HEALTH CARE

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.   

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER

• PEOPLE• COMMUNITY• RECURRING EVENTS (AKA

the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS

• UN--PREPARED• UN—PROTECTED• UN---WARNED• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND• UN--RESILIENT

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

• Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards striking non-disaster-resilient communities • Threats related to global climate change• Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil• Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

• Poverty• Chronic hunger • Health care needs• Increasing risk of pandemic disease• Large-scale migration of people• Endangered plant and animal life • Conflict and terrorism

AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Before we realize it, we could share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to design and implement a global strategy for disaster resilience.

THE “BEST SOLUTION SET” IS THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen, and build capacity FOR preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery in every community.

• To inform, educate, train, and build equity in all sectors of the community,

WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- JUST DO IT!

• Communities working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions to reach the elusive goal of disaster resilience --- within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- NOW.

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY

DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND

PUBLIC POLICYPREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE,

AND RECOVERY

FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCEFIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

RECOVERYRECOVERY

ALL ELEMENTS ARE ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATEDINTERRELATED

PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS

AND EARLY AND EARLY WARNINGWARNING

PROTECTIONPROTECTION

EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSERESPONSE

ARE INTERCONNECTED ARE INTERCONNECTED

THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS

EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION

GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE

EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY

EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT (E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR)

FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS

• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.

• A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD

• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE KNOWLEDGE BASE

Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation

Gateways to a Deeper Understanding

Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/CommunicationVulnerability and Risk Characterization

Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations

Situation Data Bases

Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources

Cause & Effect Relationships

CAPACITY BUILDING

Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation

Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships”

Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base

Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies

Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community

CONTINUING EDUCATION

Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences

Enlighten Communities on Their Risks

Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios

Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning

Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario

TURNING POINTS: TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and RecoveryEmergency Response, and Recovery

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE

BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR:•PREPAREDNESS, EARLY. WARNING, PROTECTION•EM. RESPONSE•RECOVERY

COMMUNITY GOALSCOMMUNITY GOALS