Upload
resolutionfoundation
View
625
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Slides from the self-employment event for the launch Resolution Foundation's new report on self-employment.
Citation preview
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Self-employment: just the job
or a working compromise?
6 May 2014
#selfemployed
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
After a late-1990s/early 2000s dip, self-employment has grown steadily
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The pace of the increase has sparked debate on what it reflects about the labour market and the recovery
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
• Is this part of a long-term shift towards higher levels of self-employment?
• Or is it due to cyclical factors with the state of the economy driving most of the uptick?
• And how have the self-employed fared financially in recent years?
• Doesn’t consider: – impact on wider economic performance e.g. productivity,
investment, innovation– policy implications - forthcoming RF work will touch on
some issues raised here
What explains this growth and what does it mean?……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Growth across the UK but mixed role in regional labour markets
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The self-employed pre- and post-recession haven’t changed but more likely than before to be female and work part-time
2005 2013
25% 27%
2005 2013
38%42%
No qualifications
2005 2013
12%
8%
2005 2013
9%
5%
Aged 50+
2005 2013
23%
28%
Working part-time
2005 2013
27%30%
2005 2013
49% 49%
Female
2005 2013
24%27%
Time-series cover 2005-2013, green lines represent self-employed, pink lines represent employees
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
A rise in people describing themselves as freelancers but they still make up a minority (14%) of the self-employed
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
So what explains the growth? A combination of more new entrants and fewer leaving self-employment
Decline in rate at which people leave accounts for 28% of overall self-employment growth with rising entrant rate explaining 72%Same ‘leaver’ rate decline not seen among employees
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
• More new entrants– 1/3 of the rise from Q1 2010 – Q3 2012 accounted for by
an increase in proportion moving from unemployment into self-employment rather than becoming employees
– Otherwise, they don’t look very different, just more of them
• Fewer leavers – Ageing and expanding workforce– Running down their hours and/or earnings
• Structural and cyclical elements are involved in both
What explains the changing flow rates?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Underemployment has increased across workforce but more so for the self-employed
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Since 2005 SE have switched from being far more over-employed to under-employed
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Great maj still prefer being self-employed but less of a first choice for those who became self-employed recently
Became self-employed because no better alternatives for work
Would prefer to be an employee0
5
10
15
20
25
30
27% 28%
10% 11%
Less than 5 years 5 years or more
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
On earnings, self-employed have been much harder hit – typical S-E now earns 40% less than typical employee
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
2-in-3 self-employed not contributing to a pension and sig minority face difficulties with mortgages / credit
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
• Clear evidence of a structural trend…– Expanding and ageing workforce– No new genre of post-recession self-employed worker
• And of cyclical factors– Big increase in inflow from unemployment– Underemployment higher among self-employed than
employees– Significant minority would prefer to be an employee
What does this tell us?……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
• Higher levels of self-employment here to stay but rapid rise we’ve seen lately seems highly unlikely to continue
• General concerns about self-employed finances– Issues accessing mortgages and credit– Far less likely than employees to have a pension
• Suggests some slack hidden in strong self-employment figures– Relevant consideration for when interest rates should
rise• Future RF work will consider wider policy issues: tax,
mortgages, pensions and Universal Credit
What are the consequences?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
#selfemployed
@resfoundation