ISISA GATHERING STORM

The Five Year Plan

RISE OF ISISRISE OF ISIS

The al-Qaeda offshoot in Iraq, which called itself Islamic State of Iraq, announced it was merging with Jabhat Al-Nusra, the "approved" al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria which was fighting the Assad regime alongside other rebel groups.

It said it would from now on be called Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham – al-Sham referring to the historical Levant, including both Syria and Lebanon.

Loyalists believe that the ISIS is CIA’s creation.

CIA assembled a force of more than a hundred thousand jehadis to fight the left wing government in afghanistan so as to entice the Soviet Union into intervening, without calculating the consequences for itself and the world at large

U.S. also backed jehadis in Syria to topple the secular regime of Bashar al assad turning it into jihadi crusade.

ISIS AND THE CALIPHATEISIS AND THE CALIPHATE Over a territory larger than United Kingdom and extending

from Aleppo in Syria to Iraq’s Khurdish north with Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city as its capital, there is a new political authority led firmly by ISIS

JUNE 30,2014: ISIS announces creation of caliphate in territories under its control in Iraq and Syria.

IS has proclaimed leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as “Caliph Ibrahim” and the “Leader of muslim everywhere”

The Proclaimation specifies that any muslim who fails to give his undivided allegiance to the new caliph is an apostate and is living under the penalty of death.

INCREASE IN STRENGTH INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF ISISOF ISIS

Dismissal of half a million strong Iraqi army with sophisticated knowledge of weapons.

Dismantling of other parts of the state resulting in complete breakdown of law and order

Arrival of new sectarian elites

Dependence of political parties on armed gangs and illegal militia

SOURCE OF INCOME OF SOURCE OF INCOME OF ISISISIS

As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, the organization’s key source of income is oil, especially in the Syrian provinces of Deir al-Zour and Raqqa and the Iraqi province of Nineveh.

The other main source of revenue is taxation, or rather, extortion

The kidnapping of foreigners or wealthy Syrians for ransom also brings in millions.

THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT ISIS AND

IRAQ

ISIS used to be al-Qaeda in Iraq

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) used to have a different name: al Qaeda in Iraq.

ISIS and al-Qaeda divorced in February 2014.

Their relationship "had always been more a matter of mutual interests than of shared ideology."

The conflict between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias sustains ISIS

ISIS fighters themselves are Sunnis, and the tension between the two groups is a powerful recruiting tool for ISIS.

A majority of Iraqis are Shias, but Sunnis ran the show when Saddam Hussein, himself Sunni, ruled Iraq.

Thus, Sunnis felt, and still feel, entitled to larger shares of political power.

Iraq’s former Prime Minister made the ISIS problem worse

Maliki, a Shia Muslim, built a Shia sectarian state and refused to take steps to accommodate Sunnis.

Police killed peaceful Sunni protestors and used anti-terrorism laws to mass-arrest Sunni civilians.

ISIS cannily exploited that brutality to recruit new fighters.

ISIS has a really important base in Syria

ISIS isn’t the only anti-government rebel group

This conflict often gets portrayed as a fight between the Iraqi government and ISIS.

Iraqi government has assistance from Iran and Shia militias, while ISIS isn't the only group battling the Iraqi government.

The most important rebel group beyond ISIS is Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-Naqshbandia (JRTN).

Sunni militiamen in 2010.

The Iraqi army is much stronger than ISIS, but it’s also kind of a mess

ISIS cannot challenge the Iraqi government for control over the country.

CIA estimates the number of ISIS fighting strength to be between 20,00 and 31,500.

The Iraqi army has 250,000 troops, plus armed police.

The Iraqi military also has tanks, airplanes, and helicopters.

The Wider Impact of the ISIS Rebellion

in Iraq

The Rising Storm

ISIS has completely changed the balance of power in the country.

It threatens not just the integrity of Iraq itself but could also lead to the redrawing of borders across the wider region.

Expected to deteriorate. Civil war.

The Rising Storm

Security threat to non-muslim nations also.

Commercial impact. Immediate effect: Oil prices. Iranian, Jordanian and Gulf state

companies will be significantly impacted.

The Possibilities

Six different scenarios. Due to the complexity and volatility of the

situation, other outcomes are also possible.

Impacts on the local, regional and global security situation.

Scenario A

Scenario A Iraq descends into long-term civil war in

a Syria-style scenario. All neighbouring countries would be

severely impacted. Western countries would be subjected to

increased threats of action by militant Islamists.

Western companies throughout the Muslim world would also face increased security threats.

Scenario B

Iraq splits into three parts, based on ethno-religious identities:

a relatively stable Kurdish north Arab-Shi’a south a contested Arab-Sunni central area.

Scenario B

KURD

ARAB-SUNNI

ARAB-SHIA

Scenario B

Scenario B

The new borders are extended into neighbouring Syria, and possibly into Turkey and Iran.

Could encourage groups in other Middle Eastern countries to target similar outcomes, adding to regional security risks.

Scenario C

As Scenario B, but with conflict remaining contained within the existing borders of Iraq.

Syria, Turkey and Iran could face insurgencies in areas bordering the old Iraq.

Threats to the stability of other regional countries and the increased security risks for Western countries.

Scenario C

Scenario D

ISIS

KURD

(CENTRAL GOVT.)

Scenario D

ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the central government, aided by international support, to regain control of his country’s central region; however, in the interim, the Kurds carve out a separate state.

Unrest in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, Syria and Iran would increase.

Scenario E

ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the central government, aided by international support, to regain control of Iraq.

Security threats would be lower than in Scenario D for Turkey, Syria and Iran, and for Western countries and companies.

Scenario E

CENTRAL GOVT.

Scenario F

ISIS gains control over the whole country.

In terms of security all neighbouring countries would be severely impacted.

Western countries would be the subject of increased threats of action by militant Islamists.

Scenario F

ISIS

ISIS : A THREAT TO INDIA?

• First look-India is not at immediate threat from the ISIS.

• Closer look-the threat is a more imminent one.

• Declaration by the newly-named Caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi:

• “Muslims’ rights are forcibly seized in China, India, Palestine, Somalia, the Arabian Peninsula, the Caucasus, Sham (the Levant), Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Ahvaz, Iran, Pakistan, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and Morocco, in the East and in the West.

• Prisoners are moaning and crying for help. Orphans and widows are complaining of their plight. Women who have lost their children are weeping. Masajid (plural of masjid) are desecrated and sanctities are violated… Terrify the enemies of Allah and seek death in the places where you expect to find it. Your brothers, on every piece of this earth, are waiting for you to rescue them”

EXAMPLES AND INCIDENCES SHOWING ISIS EFFECT IN INDIA

• The disturbing case here is of Maulana Salman Al-Husaini Nadwi, an internationally recognised Islamic scholar who decided against this country’s collective wisdom to write a letter to greet Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

• Some students in Srinagar were involved in stone pelting, raising ISIS flags and shouting slogans.

The Rahman group, wearing T-shirts bearing the ISIS emblem, in the photo on a social networking site.

Four engineering students from kalyan joined ISIS.Arif majeed reportedly died in bomb blast in MOSUL

USMAN ALI AND HIS SON HAJA FAKKURUDEEN  

CONCLUSION

MEASURES AND POLICIES TO CONTROL ISIS

• The objective of U.S. and Iraqi strategy is to eventually drive ISIS fighters to ground in cities like Mosul.

• Ground force will be needed to go into these built up areas, conducting house-to-house counterinsurgency operations.

• To improve these forces, the United States has already sent about 1,400 military advisers.

• If the United States ends up fighting the war on the ground, instead of local forces, there is surprisingly a lower likelihood of success.

• Well-trained local forces know the language and culture and therefore have the best intelligence on who and who is not a guerrilla fighter.

• A recent report from the National Investigation Agency (NIA) reports that more than 300 Indian youth have been recruited by the Pakistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban(TTP)  which has joined hands with ISIS.

• Hence India can no longer turn away from this problem and has to take quick and planned actions.

• Also deradicalisation of youth has to be considered.