Behavioural Psychology and BrexitSXSW 2017Michael Bodansky - @mbodansky

freuds: A legacy of psychology?

• Post-Trump

• Rise of populism: Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Pegida

• About to trigger Article 50 and commence negotiations

March: More relevant now than ever

System 1 vs System 2

7 PrinciplesHindsight bias

Game theoryLoss aversion

Status quo biasFairness

Anchoring

• Beware of hindsight bias

• It will be remembered as a knife-edge vote

• Leave campaign was severely disadvantaged

Was it a close call?

6

• System 1 vs System 2

• Can psychology explain decision making?

• Can this explain politics?

Is politics system 1 or system 2?

We hate losing

• “We’ve had enough of experts”

• Translation: “We’ve had enough of system 2”

• Ultimatum game

• Spite towards elites

• Prisoner exchange

Game theory

• “Bigoted woman”

• Backlash against elites

• Don’t ridicule the swing voters

Politicians vs the people?

• Report author: Leave brands are “traditional, straightforward, simple, down-to-earth, good value, friendly”

• “Remain brands are progressive, up-to-date, innovative, socially responsible, intelligent”

• Leave brands mostly products

• Remain brands are mostly services

Is there a ‘metropolitan elite’?

Divided in attitude?

• Marginal issues define us

• Why are there few protests against Syria?

• We focus on the minority at the expense of the majority

Political correctness gone mad?

• Oxfam report: good or bad?

• Does fairness matter?

• How much unfairness can we tolerate?

Fairness is an evolved instinct

Do we prefer a status quo?

• Anchoring sets the parameters of the debate

• Important in negotiations

• Hijacks the conversation

The importance of anchoring

• Blackmail and ultimatums are unwise

• EU to punish UK as deterrent?

• Fear of loss vs potential gains

Where do we go from here?

AMA

michael.bodansky@freuds.com