Domaniewska 42 02-672 Warsaw, Poland

T: +48 (22) 278 38 00 F: +48 (22) 278 38 75 1

Civic Platform wins with 25’000 votes

European Elections in Poland

Results and implications

May 26th, 2014

(second edition, reflects final results of elections)

Executive summary:

• The elections confirm the division of the political scene between Civic Platform, PiS, Social Democratic Alliance, Peasant’s Party and one party of rebels (previously Janusz Palikot’s, this time – Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s).

• It is the 8th consecutive Poland-wide elections lost by Jarosław Kaczynski’s Law and Justice. But the difference is only 24 345 votes.

• After the elections, minor changes in the government and parliament are necessary.

• The ruling party, Civic Platform, managed to fight back to from a much weaker position; in March 31% of Poles supported Law and Justice and Civic Platform had only 27% in polls.

• PSL, the coalition partner of Civic Platform, had a slightly worse result than 5 years ago. It weakens the position of deputy PM and minister of economy Janusz Piechociński’s and may pave the way for former deputy PM Waldemar Pawlak to take back the leader’s position in the party.

• The “dark horse” candidate was Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s New Right Congress; Mr Korwin-Mikke is a populist right-wing monarchist, free-market liberal who has finally come to power for the first time since 1993 when he lost his seat in Polish parliament. Mr Mikke, forgotten for many years, came back to popularity after a populist campaign online and with the support of young people who voted for the first time.

• Janusz Palikot’s “Twój Ruch” – according to some media, which could be possible coalition partners of Civic Platform after the next elections – lost with 3.58% of votes.

Domaniewska 42 02-672 Warsaw, Poland

T: +48 (22) 278 38 00 F: +48 (22) 278 38 75 2

• Both right-wing parties that were a part of Law and Justice didn’t make it: Zbigniew Ziobro’s Solidarna Polska (3.98%) and Jarosław Gowin’s Polska Razem (3.16%). The nationalistic “National Movement” got only 1.4% of votes.

Outcome for Polish politics

So small difference between Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS) is a result of three factors:

• Poles are generally tired of the ruling party – it is the first time in the history of modern Poland that the same party and the same PM is in power for a second term;

• The new generation of Poles have a right to vote; young people tend not to support the ruling party;

• People no longer remember the controversial Law and Justice government from 2005-2007; threatening with a PiS-led government by Civic Platform does not work anymore.

The ruling Civic Platform, during the Ukrainian crisis, halted the downward trend in polls. If elections were conducted 6 months ago, it might have been a great victory of Law and Justice.

The strong result of PiS will give the party additional strength and possibly convince people who are currently afraid of supporting the long-term loser, that they might benefit from supporting the party for the next 18 months. The result proves that it is no longer unfashionable to publicly support PiS – as it used to be for many years.

The outcome of elections is a strong signal for Civic Platform that it must change its “warm-water” focused policy of passive management if it plans to win the local and parliamentary elections. The Civic Platform will have to fight not only against Law and Justice – in what has been a traditional battle since 2005 – but also against the new populist group of Janusz Korwin-Mikke.

Mr Korwin-Mikke already announced that he is going to Brussels for only 1.5 years and plans to return back to local politics soon. It will probably result in a reduction in the level of public debate, as Mr Korwin-Mikke, known as the enfant terrible of Polish politics, specializes in providing easy answers for difficult questions and is well known for his non-parliamentarian language. While it is possible he might get a good result in the next parliamentary elections, he might as well disappear from the politics if someone more controversial appears in politics.

The additional effect of election will be a consolidation of the left side of the political scene. The Social Democratic Alliance (SLD) kept its position as the leader of the Left, with all other

Domaniewska 42 02-672 Warsaw, Poland

T: +48 (22) 278 38 00 F: +48 (22) 278 38 75 3

left-oriented parties below the threshold. SLD lost 3pp in comparison with 2009, mainly due to losing support of former president Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

Generally, if the current trend continues, after parliamentary elections in 2015 we might expect either a coalition of Civic Platform, Peasant’s Party and Social Democratic Alliance, or – if the current trend continues - Law and Justice with Korwin-Mikke’s New Right (if it survives the next 1.5 years).

Most important politicians moving to Brussels

• Bogdan Zdrojewski, the minister of culture and national heritage – responsible among other things for copyright legislation.

• Dariusz Rosati, head of parliamentary Public Finance Committee. He is returning to Brussels after 5 years in Poland (Socialist group, 2004-2009).

• Adam Szejnfeld, former deputy minister of economy. • Barbara Kudrycka, former minister of science (2007-2013), former MEP (2004-2007) • Michał Boni, former minister for IT and administration, focused on strategic thinking on

social and technical issues. • Bolesław Piecha, (Law and Justice), former deputy minister of health (2005-2007),

main health expert of PiS party.

Most important politicians returning to Poland

• Bogusław Sonik, PO, deputy chair of CONT, member of ENVI, one of most active MEPs, might go back into local politics.

• Wojciech Olejniczak, SLD, membr of AGRI and REGI. • Paweł Zalewski, PO, deputy chair of INTA, member of subcommittee on security and

defense. Will become the influential expert of PO and possibly a MP. • Paweł Kowal, member of CPDE and AFET, Eastern-policy expert. • Marek Migalski, member of CULT, very active in Polish media, might leave politics. • Jacek Kurski, member of REGI, deputy leader of Solidarna Polska, very active in

Polish media. Has a chance to stay in Polish politics, if he can get support of PiS’ leader.

• Zbigniew Ziobro, member of JURI, leader of Solidarna Polska, in the past a very popular politician of Law and Justice, in conflict with PiS’ leader.

Domaniewska 42 02-672 Warsaw, Poland

T: +48 (22) 278 38 00 F: +48 (22) 278 38 75 4

Final election results:

Party Seats (vs 2009)

Votes (v. vs 2009)

Possible party group

Civic Platform (PO)

19 (25)

32.13% (44.43%) EPP

Law and Justice (PiS)

19 (15)

31.78% (27.40%) ECR

Social Left Alliance

(SLD-UP)

5 (7)

9.44% (12.34%) S&D

New Right (KNP)

4 (0)

7.15% (1.10% - JKM’s previous party)

Peasant’s Party (PSL)

4 (3)

6,80% (7.01%) EPP

Turnout: 26,70% (vs 24,53% in 2009)

Report prepared by:

Lukasz Jachowicz, Head of Public Affairs

MSLGROUP Poland lukasz.jachowicz@mslgroup.com @ljachowicz

Permission to use, copy, or distribute this report is hereby granted without fee, provided that the copyright

notice appears in all copies. The report is originally distributed by MSLGROUP Poland. We also publish a monthly summary of Polish legal and political developments (Warsaw Insight) and of key developments in European Union

(Brussels Insight).

To be added to the distribution list, please send a request to lukasz.jachowicz@mslgroup.com