Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009

FNS IndonesiaJakarta

06 October 2009

German Parliamentary Elections 27 September 2009

Rainer Heufers

6 October 2009

Who was competing?

PurpleBlack

RedYellowGreen

Election Results

Back to 1949…?

Voter turnout reduced

Geographic distribution

West and East Germany

West and East Germany

Analysis by profession (in %)

CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene

Unemployed

21 (-2) 22 (-8) 11 (+3) 25 (+2) 10 (+3)

Workers 28 (-2) 24 (-13) 13 (+5) 18 (+6) 7 (+2)

Employed 32 20 (-16) 16 (+6) 11 (+3) 14 (+3)

Self-employed

33 (-9) 14 (-7) 27 (+8) 6 14 (+2)

Officials 32 (-6) 25 (-5) 13 (+4) 7 19 (+5)

Pensioners 39 (-3) 29 (-7) 13 (+5) 12 (+4) 5 (+1)

Analysis by age (in %)

CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene

18 – 24 25 (-1) 17 (-21) 15 (+5) 12 (+3) 16 (+5)

25 – 34 28 (-1) 17 (-16) 18 (+6) 12 (+3) 14 (+4)

35 – 44 30 (-2) 21 (-13) 16 (+7) 12 (+3) 15 (+4)

45 – 59 30 (-4) 24 (-10) 15 (+6) 15 (+4) 12 (+4)

60+ 42 (-1) 27 (-7) 13 (+4) 10 (+3) 5 (+1)

Politik Aliran?

CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene

Protestant 31 (-2) 29 (-11) 15 (+5) 9 (+3) 12 (+4)

Catholic 45 (-4) 19 (-9) 16 (+6) 6 (+2) 9 (+2)

No confession

22 (+1) 21 (-15) 14 (+4) 23 (+3) 12 (+3)

Reasons for Voting Decisions

CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene Total

Competence

40 (-18) 49 62 (-10) 73 74 55

Candidates 32 (+16)

22 20 (+8) 12 21

Long-term sympathy

24 13 (+0) 15 18

Gains and losses (in %)

CDU SPD FDP Linke Gruene

To other parties

- 1.2 million

- 3.7 million

- 130,000

From other parties

+ 870,000 + 1.6 million

+ 1.3 million

+ 860.000

Generational

- 600,000 - 490,000 + 60,000 + 210,000

Mobilisation of voters

- 1.2 million

- 2.1 million

- 110,000 - 350,000

Seat allocation

Coalition Building on the National Level

“Jamaica-coalition”

“Traffic light coalition”

Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69, 2005-09)

Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998) (currently negotiated)

Red Green(1998-2005)

“Social liberal”(1969-1982)

Red Red Green

Negotiating a Coalition

Negotiations

• Location: representative office of German state of NRW

• Time: Until Parliament convenes on 27 October or before 9 November

• 9 FDP reps, 18 CDU/CSU reps

• Result will be a more or less specific contract (1994: 50 pages)

7 working groups discussing 2 ministerial portfolios each• Foreign – Security policy

• Economic and Financial Policies

• Homes Affairs and Law

• …

Traditional practice: No side of the table will gain both resorts of a working group Each working group has two Chairpersons from both camps

Issues

Highly contentious Problematic Less problematic Easy

Home Affairs / Internal Security

Public health

Taxes

Stimulus packages

Nuclear power

Agriculture

Unemployment welfare benefits

Labour policies

Foreign policy

Security Defence

1 Chancellor

15 Ministers

Foreign Affairs / Vice ChancellorHome AffairsLawFinanceEconomics/TechnologyLabour/WelfareNutrition/Agriculture/ Consumer Protection

DefenseFamily/Seniors/Women/YouthHealthTraffic/Works/Urban PlanningEnvironment/Nuclear SafetyEducation/ResearchState Secretariat (Chancellery)Economic Cooperation/Development

Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009

FNS IndonesiaJakarta

06 October 2009