Assembly Elections in India

Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir

January 2015

Analysis by Edelman Public Affairs

1

BJP, 25

PDP, 28

NC, 15

INC, 12

Others, 7

Jammu & Kashmir Assembly

87

Even though the PDP

emerges as the single

largest party, the strong

performance by the BJP is

a watershed outcome. All

options are still on the

table for government

formation

Results Change

BJP 25 +14

PDP 28 +7

NC 15 -13

INC 12 -5

Others 7 -3

BJP, 42

JMM+, 19

INC+, 6

JVM+, 8

Others, 6

Jharkhand Assembly

81

The BJP becomes first

party to win a clear

majority in a state which

has seen 9 governments in

14 years. A greater

political stability is

expected for the next 5

years

Results Change

BJP 42 +19

JMM+ 19 +1

INC+ 6 -15

JVM+ 8 -3

Others 6 -2

BJP- Bharatiya Janata party ; INC – Indian National Congress; PDP-People’s Democratic Party; NC – National Conference; JMM – Jharkhand Mukti Morcha ; JVM – Jharkhand Vikas Morcha

Snapshot of the Assembly Election Results

First non-coalition government in JharkhandKey Takeaways• For the first time since the formation of the state in 2000, Jharkhand voters delivered a clear mandate. They handed a majority to the

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its partner, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The BJP won 37 and AJSU 5 seats in the 81-

member assembly, taking their combined tally to above the halfway mark. The BJP gained the highest vote share of 31.3 per cent

• The key issues raised during the election campaign, apart from Mr. Modi’s good governance promise, were ending political instability,

tackling endemic corruption and extremist violence. BJP also promised to generate more employment by reopening mines which were

shut due to allegations of corruption and environmental concerns

• Though collectively tribals constitute less than one-third of the population, the State’s politics is largely driven by identity and caste

linkages. The strong mandate given to BJP is being seen as the electorate forsaking identity politics and demanding an end to deep-

seated nepotism, corruption and crony capitalism. The appointment of BJP’s national vice president Raghubar Das, a non-tribal, as the

Chief Minister is being seen as a step in this direction. This is the second state after Haryana, where the BJP has broken away from caste

considerations in choosing the Chief Minister

• Das has pledged to bring Jharkhand at par with the economically advanced state of Maharashtra in the next 5 years. He has also

promised development for all sections of the population including Dalits, minorities, backwards and tribal communities. The new

government has also committed to rooting out left wing extremism through administrative and socio-economic solutions combined with

speedy economic development. The government is looking at strengthening policing without compromising on human rights in the state

First non-coalition government in JharkhandBusiness Impact

• Experts believe setting up industry in India takes more than enabling policy because states often work counter to federal plans -- and vice versa --

unless the same party rules in both. Jharkhand is seen as crucial for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to promote manufacturing because of

its rich mineral resources. His party already rules in mineral-rich Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The state has the capability to harness

competitive growth in industries like steel, aluminum and cement that are essential for building infrastructure and also the growing need of

urbanisation

• About 40% of India’s mineral deposits are in Jharkhand, including more than 72 billion tonnes of coal and 3.7 billion tonnes of iron ore. 2014 saw

companies being affected by iron ore shortage owing to the closure of mines in Jharkhand and Odisha. The steel and metal industries expect

improvement in growth with a stable government in the state and clarity in policy making, especially on mine-lease renewals and forest

clearances

• The new government in the state is likely to push for a conducive environment for business, focusing on e-governance and a single-window

clearance model. Also, the ‘Make in Jharkhand’ programme is likely to take precedence to promote manufacturing and employment generation

• Another focus of the new government is likely to be urban development as the BJP has promised housing for all by 2022 as well as 100 ‘smart

cities” in the country

Raghubar Das, Chief Minister of Jharkhand

Five-time Jamshedpur East MLA Raghubar Das is the sixth chief minister of Jharkhand. He will be the first non-triballeader to become the state's chief minister.

Born in 1955, Raghubar Das is a lawyer with an undergraduate degree in science. He worked with Tata Steel posthis graduation. Das has been active in politics since his college days and had participated in the JayprakashNarayan's Sampoorna Kranti movement in undivided Bihar.

Raghubar Das won his first election in 1995 from Jamshedpur East to become a member of the Bihar Assembly. Hehas been winning from the seat ever since. He became Jharkhand BJP chief in 2004-05. Under his leadership, theBJP won 30 seats in the Jharkhand Assembly in the 2005 election. He was again the BJP chief during the 2009 LokSabha elections. He became a Vice President in the BJP National Committee in August 2014.

Raghubar Das served as Deputy Chief Minister in the Shibu Shoren government of 2009-10. He held the portfoliosof finance, labour and urban development during his stint as a cabinet minister. He is one of the few BJP leaderswho enjoys the trust of not only the Modi-Amit Shah team, but also that of Home Minister Rajnath Singh.

Raghubar Das belongs to the influential Vaishya community and his appointment as chief minister is expected topay dividends in neighbouring Bihar, where assembly elections are due next year. Vaishyas make ten per cent of theelectorate in Bihar. In Jharkhand, the new chief minister has promised an accountable government which will workfor the employment-driven development of the state, and which will have zero tolerance on corruption.

Chandreswar Prasad Singh, BJP, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Urban Development and HousingChandreswar Prasad Singh, a prominent leader of Bharatiya Janata Party, was ‘Speaker’ of Jharkhand Legislative Assembly from 2010-2013. He has been member of the Jharkhand legislative assembly from Ranchi for over decades, and has been elected five times in a row since 1996. Singh won his seat by 95,760 votes

Nilkanth Singh Munda, BJP, Minister for Rural Development and Rural WorksNeelkanth Singh Munda, 47, is a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party from Jharkhand. He is elected to Jharkhand Legislative Assembly from Khunti. He won 47,032 votes in Assembly Election winning by a margin of 21,515 votes. He has a B.A. degree from Magadh University in 1988

Louis Marandi, BJP, Minister for Welfare (including Minority Welfare), Social Welfare, Women and Child Development Louis Marandi has been President of Women wing of Jharkhand BJP and a member of Jharkhand Women Commission. In the 2014 Assembly elections of jharkhand she defeted Hemant Soren, former Jharkhand CM by 5,262 votes. She represents Santhal pargana in the state

Chandraprakash Choudhary, AJSU, Minister for Drinking Water & Sanitation and Disaster ManagementChandra Prakash Choudhary is a leader of All Jharkhand Students Union. He is a member of Jharkhand Legislative Assembly from Ramgarh, where he won by 98,987 votes.

Cabinet Ministers of Jharkhand

7

Key Takeaways

• The assembly elections of Jammu & Kashmir produced a split result, not only in terms of numbers, but also in terms of geography. The PDP is the largest party with 28 seats. The BJP, with 25 seats, is the second largest party. The National Conference stands at 3rd position with 15 seats and the INC at 4th with 12 seats. The Congress party won 3 out of 4 seats in the largely Buddhist Ladakh region

• The BJP more than doubled its previous tally of 11 seats in the previous assembly elections propelling it to become one of the key players in the state. Despite gaining the highest vote share of 23 per cent and sweeping the polls in the Hindu majority Jammu region the BJP was unable to reach the targeted halfway mark. People in the Kashmir valley continued to put their faith in the People’s Democratic Party and the National Conference

• Since no party has gained a clear majority government formation has proved to be a tremendous challenge. All parties went to the polls competing independently as there was no pre-poll alliance

• Informal talks are on between political parties to explore the possibility of coming together to give the state a stable government, but inter-party, and even intra-party, contradictions are such that progress has been extremely slow. There are three potential outcomes currently in play:

• An alliance between the PDP and the BJP. This appears to be the most likely at this juncture

• An alliance between the PDP, the NC and the INC. This could include the possibility of the NC and / or the INC extending conditional or unconditional support to a PDP government without joining the council of ministers

• If agreement cannot be reached then the State will be ruled by the appointed Governor under Governor’s Rule as a prelude to fresh elections

• The BJP is understood to be averse to forming a government with the help of the National Conference, Independents and others. This is understood to be due to a belief amongst the party leadership that the mandate of the election was against the Omar Abdullah-led National Conference

• A BJP-PDP alliance, if it takes shape, is likely to be formed only after common goals have been identified. Both, the BJP and the PDP have promised good governance, better infrastructure, educational opportunities, healthcare and job opportunities to their electorate

• A PDP alliance with other parties is expected to focus on economic reforms in the state and employment generation apart from the PDP’s election promise of ‘self-rule' as framework for resolution of Kashmir, besides effective governance to fight corruption

A fragmented verdict in Jammu & Kashmir

Impact on Business• Political stability in the state in the last five years led to a positive impact on the tourism business, increasing the number of domestic tourists. This was

led by previous government’s efforts and comparative improvement in the cross-border situation. Any new government in the state is highly likely to

promote the tourism and hospitality sector because of its role in the local economy

• The state’s economy is also dependent on, handicrafts, manufacturing wood-based sports equipment, food processing, agro-based industries and other

small-scale & cottage industries. Any new government would have to focus on improving infrastructure and transport connectivity to give a boost to

these sectors, as Kashmir’s road network and urban infrastructure have failed to keep up with population and traffic growth. It is likely to become a

focus for a BJP led government, as they have promised to do that

• A new government is also likely to take forward the recent focus on the IT enabled services sector and skilling of the state’s youth in IT and hospitality

• A PDP led alliance is likely to focus on the economic and social integration of the region around Jammu and Kashmir by setting up Regional Free Trade

Area and common economic market. The PDP is also likely to focus on international benchmarking of products and processes by registering patents for

handicrafts manufactured in the state like shawls and carpets. The party has also promised greater regional trade integration with SAARC economies

• A BJP-PDP alliance, if it takes shape, is likely to be formed on common goals of promoting industry and trade, improving the state’s overall economy

through building better infrastructure, educational opportunities, healthcare and job opportunities. J&K is likely to benefit with BJP in the state, since

central transmission of funds will become easier and central programmes will touch the state’s economy with lesser hindrance

• A PDP alliance with other parties is expected to focus on local economy and advancement of local industry. PDP has promised a push for trade within

and outside the country

The coalition question in Jammu & KashmirBoth the PDP and the BJP are keen to get into government. For the PDP, it would mean a return to power. For the BJP, it is the for the first time in its extended history that the Hindu nationalist party sees power within its grasp in Muslim majority J&K. It would be a feather in the cap of Prime Minister Modi, who has visibly paid special attention to J&K since coming to power in May 2014 and has been keen to project an image of pan-Indian appeal.

At this time, the contradictions between the BJP and the PDP are the least intractable vis-à-vis the any other combination. Together, they would have 53 seats in a House of 87. While, arithmetically, this alliance appears to be most obvious and stable, it is understood that within the PDP a clique of senior leaders is opposed to it. The apprehension of this group is the BJP’s image of a Hindu nationalist party, which has not found acceptance with the PDP’s Muslim supporters in the Kashmir valley as 33 of the 34 BJP candidates lost their deposit. These senior leaders are said to be of the view that tying up with the BJP today will benefit their arch rival the National Conference in the future.

Other possibilities, like a PDP alliance with the INC and the NC, are increasingly being rejected as options, because these are seen as bringing in parties which have been “rejected by the people”. Key BJP leaders are also said to be against a partnership with NC or the others for similar reasons.

Making the situation even more complex is the stand taken by the Independents elected to the assembly. Of the seven, only four are considered ready to support a PDP-BJP tie up.

The NC is playing a wait and watch game, after extending unconditional support to the PDP. But PDP is wary because the personal equation between Mehbooba Mufti and NC leader Omar Abdullah is not an easy one. The Congress’ stand seems the clearest for now: it will support any deal where the BJP is kept out.Thelast option is that of the Governor’s rule if a coalition does not materialize by 19 January, when the term of the state’s outgoing assembly ends. The Centre is reported to be of the view that the state will be better served by a “politician governor with a human touch”, instead of a bureaucrat or a retired Army man. The current Governor – who is serving a second term, NN Vohra, is a veteran bureaucrat and an old Kashmir hand.

The election campaign also showed the wide difference between the BJP and the PDP in their approach to governing J&K. While MehboobaMufti, the leader of the PDP, had made strengthening Article 370 of the Constitution (which grants a special status to J&K), soft borders with Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and revocation of AFSPA (the law which grants immunity to the Army) key elements of her campaign, the BJP is opposed to all three. There is also the question of the chief minister: the BJP seems to want its own candidate to head the government. Under these circumstances forming an alliance will be tough for both the parties.

But there are factors that could provide pragmatic support for the BJP – PDP alliance. J&K experienced unprecedented floods last year. Relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding are still work in progress. If BJP is part of the ruling alliance, central assistance will be more easily available to the state government. The fact that the BJP is in power at the Centre is thus an attraction and a Modi-Mufti tie-up is seen by many as a partnership that can match, if not outlast, the equation the Abdullahs of the NC have had with the central Congress leadership.

Key chief ministerial candidates in Jammu & KashmirMufti Mohammad Sayeed, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is a politician from the state of Jammu and Kashmir. He was the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir from November 2, 2002, to November 2, 2005. He had been a member of the Indian National Congress party until 1987. He quit the Congress party to join V. P. Singh's Jan Morcha, which led to his becoming the first Muslim Minister for Home Affairs in the Union Cabinet of India in 1989. He rejoined the Congress under P V Narasimha Rao which he left in 1999 along with daughter Mehbooba Mufti to form his own party, Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party.

Mehbooba Mufti, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is the president of the Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party. She is the daughter of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Mehbooba Mufti was a member of the 14th Lok Sabha (2004-2009), representing the Anantnagconstituency. Her party, PDP, failed to win a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009 and she did not contest that year herself. But in 2014, she was elected again to the Lok Sabha from Anantnag constituency. Mehbooba is one of the few female politicians from Kashmir who is recognised across all India and is in the running for the chief ministerial post of the state.

Jitendra Singh, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is currently a Minister of State for Science and Technology (Independent charge), Earth sciences (Independent charge), Prime Ministers Office, Personnel-Public Grievances and Pensions, Department of Atomic Energy andDepartment of Space. He is a Bharatiya Janata Party National Executive member and Chief Spokesperson for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He won the Udhampur seat in Indian general election, 2014 for the 16th Lok Sabha. He has been a professor of diabetes and endocrinology, and is a consultant and clinical practitioner.

Nirmal Singh, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is a known Jammu functionary of the Bharatiya Janata Party. He is tipped to be a key contender for the post of the chief minister in Jammu and Kashmir if his party becomes a part of an alliance. He has a doctorate and is a professor in the University of Jammu.

2014

NDA

PDP emerges as single largest party; however, BJP emerges as the second largest party ahead of NC and INC

SP

JD(U)

TMC

BJD

TRS

AIADMK

NPF

SDF

CPM

Won 2012

Won 2013

Won 2013

Won 2014

Lost 2013 Won 2014

UPA

UPA

UPA

Won 2014

Won 2014

Won 2014

BJP emerges as single largest party

2013

Political Milestones

• With victories over the last two years in the general elections and assembly elections in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has superseded the Indian National Congress (INC) party as India’s preeminent national party

• With these wins, the BJP is likely to consolidate its position in Rajya Sabha, which will enable it to pass legislation more smoothly

11

Transforming political landscape in IndiaState governments in India National Democratic Alliance (Led by Bharatiya Janata Party)

United Progressive Alliance (Led by Indian National Congress)

Other regional parties

2015

2016

2016

Late 2015 2016 2017

Elections in Delhi

Elections in Bihar

Elections expected in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, West

Bengal

Elections expected in

Uttar Pradesh

May 2015

Completion of one year of the NDA

government

January end/ early February 2015

2017

2016

Contact Us @ Edelman Public Affairs

© Edelman India, 201412

Edelman India’s Public Affairs (PA) practice combines industry, regulatory affairs and communications knowledge to

develop and execute PA campaigns based on solid research and insights that inform impactful strategies.

We work with our clients to anticipate issues; plan and respond to the emerging challenges at national, state and local

levels.

At the core of the offering, is the ability to develop long term relationships and maintain constant engagement instead

of an ad-hoc approach.

Our team of 29 personnel includes senior industry professionals, domain experts, researchers and writers from a wide

range of backgrounds. We have access to an extended group of advisors from civil service, media and NGO circles who

help us navigate the vast and complex stakeholder universe in India.

Edelman India has offices in Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and a vast network of representatives in state capitals.

Contact the PA practice:

Rakesh Thukral, Managing Director

rakesh.thukral@edelman.com

Peter Bellini, Associate Director, Head of Public Affairs

peter.bellini@edelman.com

Our client portfolio includes:

Our PA Practice

Government Outreach

Stakeholder Engagement

Issues Management

Industry Affairs

Policy & Regulatory Advocacy

Legislative Tracking

Crisis & Risk Management

Strategic Media Relations

Coalition Building

Thought Leadership

Market Entry

CSR engagement

Our office:

Edelman India Private Limited

Vatika Triangle

6th Floor, Sushant Lok - 1, Block A

Gurgaon, Haryana 122 002, India

@EdelmanIndiaPA