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Alastair Hatchett's slide pack from the March 28 2012 PM Webinar where will pay go in 2012 sponsored by Thomson Reuters
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Alastair Hatchett IDS Head of Pay and HR Services
Current pressures on pay• Most pay rises have lagged behind inflation over
recent years
• There has been a substantial fall in household incomes since 2008
• Large companies have become cash rich but weak economic outlook means strict cash controls
• IDSPay.co.uk finds a median pay rise of 2% in 2010, 2.5% in 2011 rising to 3% in 2012 (in the first months)
• Recession and austerity has been uneven: some sectors had freezes while others did not
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Distribution of pay settlements: IDSPay.co.uk
Expected trends in 2012• Manufacturing more optimistic about 2012, after
slowdown in autumn 2011
• RPI inflation to fall, while modest rise in growth
• Private sector pay at 2.5 to 3.5%, with 22% of deals at 4%+
• Minimum wage to rise by 1.8% in October 2012
• Public sector largely frozen in 2012
• Pay review bodies to research regional pay variations
• Private sector awards may match or exceed inflation in 2013
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Public & private sector rates of pay growth 2005-11
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(Average Weekly Earnings: total pay, not seasonally adjusted)
Source: ONS
Recent pay deals in the private sector: IDSPay
Company Pay increase
Iceland Foods 5% October 2011
Jaguar Land Rover 6.1% November 2011
Ford 6% November 2011
Network Rail 5.7% January 2012
BT 3% January 2012
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Bonus payments in 2000-2011: source ONS
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Average Weekly Earnings by sector: source ONS
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Varied experiences of pay and bonuses
• Finance sector has had salary rises each year, but lower bonuses
• High end retail and supermarkets had no pay freezes and good bonuses
• Car industry had freezes and short-time in 2009 but record exports in 2011 and recent pay rises of 5 and 6%
• Construction had widespread freezes over two years and some low rises recently
• Lower paying sectors have followed minimum wage rises of 2.2 to 2.5%
• Public sector pay frozen for 2 years and then capped at 1%
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