Elections 2014Tom IacobucciSaturday, November 1, 2014

Agenda

• Campaign Planning

• Who Votes

• Money and Politics

• Ballot Questions

• Questions & Answers

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“Ask not what your country can do for you,

Ask what You can do for your country.”

-John F. Kennedy

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Calendar drives the Campaign

8:00 PM

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Count Backwards from Victory

At 8:00 PM on Tuesday, November 4th, the 2014 Election is officially over.Key Dates

Milestones

Events / Activities

Budget

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Identify Supporters

Who?

Where?

How?

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Voter Contact

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Source: http://www.people-press.org/2014/10/28/fewer-voters-report-getting-robo-calls-campaign-ads-still-pervasive/8

Track your Support

1 = supporter

2 = leaning for

3 = undecided

4 = leaning against

5 = opponent

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Elections are reduced to a simple mathematical problem

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Turnout Avg. of 3 similar elections

2010: 7,7902006: 7,7202002: 7,733

23,290

23,290 / 3 = 7,763

Majority: ((7,800 / 2) +1) = 3,901

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ID’ing Votes Needed to Win

• To achieve 3,901 votes campaign will need to successfully identify 5,200 (supporters or 1’s)

• January 8th - November 1st (304 days) (43 weeks)

• 17 successful contacts per day, or 120 a week

• May 2nd - November 1st (184 days) (26 weeks)

• 28 successful contacts per day, or 198 per week.

• August 1st - November 1st (92 days) (13 weeks)

• 57 successful contacts per day, or 396 per week

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“A plan that is not written is not a plan”

2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2014

Election Day

11/4/2014

GOTV - Get Out The Vote Begins

10/25/2014

Deadline to Register to Vote

10/20/2014

Direct Mail Piece Dropped to USPS

10/7/2014

3,000 1's Identified

10/1/2014

Direct Mail Piece Delivered to Printer

9/29/2014

Poll Conducted8/13/2014

2,000 1's Identified

7/1/2014

Primary Election

6/3/2014

Poll Conducted

4/15/2014

Campaign Kickoff1/8/2014

Vote-by-Mail Ballot Applications Available for Primary

5/5/2014 - 5/27/2014

Vote-by-Mail Ballot Applications Available for General

10/6/2014 - 10/28/2014

Voter Identification for General

6/4/2014 - 10/27/2014

Voter Identification for Primary

1/8/2014 - 5/24/2014

Primary Fundraising 1/1/2014 - 6/23/2014

Final Fundraising 6/24/2014 - 11/4/2014

What kind of turnout to expect?

Source: http://cerc.net/2014/10/28/failure-engage-act-2/

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Source: http://politicaldata.com/signs-of-a-low-turnout-election Signs of a Low Turnout Election.15

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ Do newly registered voters actually vote? In California: Yes.

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Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ Do newly

registered voters actually vote? In California: Yes.

IRV - Instant-runoff voting

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Money and Politics

2012 Averages

• 4 hours a day fundraising

• Congressman: $1.7M

($2,315 per day)

• Senators: $10.5M

($14,351 per day)

Source: http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/how-much-does-it-cost-win-seat-congre 19

Presidential Campaigns Expenditures

$763,347,810 , 59%

$47,980,001 , 4%

$98,321,488 , 8%

$30,382,208 , 2%

$175,881,018 , 14%

$25,840,976 , 2%$108,000,152 , 8%

$382,768 , 0% $42,024,863 , 3% 59% - Media

4% - Strategy &Research

8% - Salaries

2% - Transfers

14% - Fundraising

2% - CampaignExpenses

8% - Administration

0.03% - Contributions

3% - Unclassifiable

Source: https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/expenditures.php 20

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Direct Democracy

• Initiative

– Direct: put directly to voter

– Indirect: referred to the Legislature for action, then may go to voter

• Referenda

• Recall

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Initiatives in California

• Anyone (or group) can propose• Not required to have prior legal review

• Petitions: 150 Days to gather signatures (changed to 180)

– Initiative Statute (or Referendum)

• 5% votes cast for Governor in last Gubernatorial vote

– Constitutional Amendment

• 8% votes cast for Governor last Gubernatorial vote

Source: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/initiative-guide.htm 25

Proposed Initiatives 1912 - 9/2014

75%

20%

5%

0.05%

1,367 - Failed to Qualify

363 - Qualified

96 - Withdrawn

1 - Adopted byLegislature

Source: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/pdf/summary-data.pdf 26

Qualified Initiatives 1912 - 9/2014

Source: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/pdf/summary-data.pdf

34%

64%

1% 1%

122 - Approved

234 - Rejected

3 - Removed fromBallot by Court Order

4 - No Data Provided

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Approved Initiatives

• 39 Constitutional Amendments

• 73 Statute Revisions

• 10 Constitutional Amendments and Statutes

28Source: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/pdf/summary-data.pdf

2014 Ballot Questions

Source: http://fppc.ca.gov/top10Nov2014/ 29

Proposition # Support Opposition

1 $11,835.28

2 $11,835.28

45 $3,583,650 $55,969,120

46 $3,979,600 $55,540,187

47 $8,112,224

48 $18,248,386

“government of the people, by the people, for the people”

• Govt of ½ the people by a ¼ the people for ALL the People. 25% to win when 49% of eligible voters vote. #voting #midterms2014 #election

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Questions?

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