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Predic'on Markets for Fun & Prophet Jeffrey Henning, Founder & VP of Strategy
2
12/23 CSAT
Predic8on Markets
We See Others Be@er than We See Ourselves
! Presented at 2010 AMA MRC
! Randy Berkowitz, VP of global market research
! Side-‐by-‐side test of tradi8onal survey methodology vs. Infosurv’s predic8ve market method: ! 4 concepts tested in the health product category
! 5 concepts tested in beauty
! Respondents in target market rated many product a@ributes
! “Traders” allocated virtual dollars to concepts
Combe Case Study
Quotes from par8cipants (recruited through a survey panel):
! “Excellent way to judge a product. Makes one think of the best logic and back it up since money is on the line.”
! “I loved the idea! It was a super fun way to preview new products and get feedback on what other people think.”
! “I loved it. You should have more of these to do. They’re fun, and it helps you to learn more about stock market trading.”
Source: Combe
Predic8on Markets for Fun…
Predic'on Market Survey General popula8on Target popula8on What would they do? What would you do? Most important number Dozens of metrics Variable incen8ve based on performance
Flat incen8ve
3-‐4 days 3-‐4 weeks 50% budget 100% budget
…and Prophet
Source: Combe
! BrainJuicer ran 215 experiments across 12 categories
! Awarded the Best Methodology Award by ESOMAR…
in 2005
Old News…
! Companies reluctant to abandon norma8ve databases
! Product launch failures can be assigned many fathers…
besides the concept test
! Early adopters have expensive-‐to-‐reach target markets
Old News… But S8ll News
10
Ques8ons?
Jeffrey Henning Founder & VP Strategy @jhenning [email protected] 1-‐800-‐787-‐8755 x 550
