Upload
amarach-research
View
378
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
February 2016Focus on: Fuel Forecourt Brands
© Amárach Research
2Economic Recovery Index
Balanced Recovery
Five years from its lowest ebb and our
Economic Recovery Index remains near its
peak since the start of 2016.
It hasn’t translated into the housing market –
as our update of an old metric reveals.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes
and intentions of customers of Ireland’s fuel
forecourt brands, and we introduce a new
section in which we profile customers of
each provider on key measures such as
NPS, switching intentions & spend.
2016 has got off to a good start (despite the
political uncertainties!), let’s hope it gathers
momentum in the months ahead.
3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to February 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 15th to 22nd February 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010
Fuel Forecourt Brands
Customer Profile
5Economic Recovery Index
Profile of Customers by: Main Fuel Forecourt Brand
Source: PlanR Database, February 2016
February 2016 TOTAL Topaz Applegreen Maxol Texaco
Sample 1002 265 217 89 76
Average spend
€ per month€101 €103 €101 €98 €106
Net Promoter Score -10% -16% 3% -14% -34%
% likely to switch fuel
forecourt in next 6 months21% 24% 15% 23% 30%
% ever recommended their
main fuel forecourt brand51% 57% 44% 53% 67%
Lifetime number of forecourt
brand relationships5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.8
Economic Recovery Index
7Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has levelled off after reaching its highest level ever at the start of 2016:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ap
r '0
9
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'10
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'11
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'12
Mar
May Ju
ly
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'13
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'14
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'15
Mar
May
July
Sep
t
No
v
Jan
'16
The ERI is still below the ‘halfway mark’ (50) in February 2016
8Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7
Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0
Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9
Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8
Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7
Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4
Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0
Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4
There has been a sea-change in economic outlook since February 2012
9Economic Recovery Index
Economic Outlook
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement by mobile network:
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
February 2016 TOTAL Topaz Applegreen Maxol Texaco
1002 265 217 89 76
The economic situation in Ireland
is getting worse12% 7% 13% 12% 13%
The economic situation is bad but
has stabilized27% 31% 20% 32% 34%
The economic situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement34% 33% 41% 41% 28%
The economic situation is getting
better and showing clear signs of
improvement20% 25% 22% 13% 20%
The economic situation is good
and almost fully recovered from the
recession3% 3% 1% 1% 2%
ERI Score 43.4 46.2 44.6 39.8 40.6
Consumer Impact
11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Feb-10 42 47 56 53
Feb-11 24 37 44 45
Feb-12 26 41 44 49
Feb-13 27 36 43 42
Feb-14 38 41 52 47
Feb-15 42 42 53 45
Jan-16 46 49 56 50
Feb-16 41 44 55 46
Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ has fallen back from its peak level in January
12Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Feb-10 18 26 62 29
Feb-11 14 27 61 24
Feb-12 17 29 57 26
Feb-13 16 26 54 24
Feb-14 22 25 58 24
Feb-15 27 28 53 26
Jan-16 35 28 54 30
Feb-16 30 26 56 26
Spending sentiment remains high, but below its recent peak
13Economic Recovery Index
Housing Demand
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
House buying attitudes have fallen markedly since last survey in February 2013
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I think now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-16
14Economic Recovery Index
Fuelling Spending
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by fuel forecourt):
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
February 2016 TOTAL Topaz Applegreen Maxol Texaco
1002 265 217 89 76
Strongly Agree 8% 12% 7% 5% 10%
Slightly Agree 22% 22% 20% 30% 19%
Neither/Nor 22% 20% 25% 23% 26%
Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 25% 27% 25%
Strongly Disagree 22% 21% 23% 15% 19%
15Economic Recovery Index
Fuel Pricey
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by fuel forecourt):
“I always buy the lowest price products or services”
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
February 2016 TOTAL Topaz Applegreen Maxol Texaco
1002 265 217 89 76
Strongly Agree 22% 22% 23% 30% 17%
Slightly Agree 29% 29% 30% 29% 27%
Neither/Nor 22% 21% 21% 16% 28%
Slightly Disagree 16% 17% 17% 20% 10%
Strongly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 6% 15%
Mood of the Nation
17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2016
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
Ju
n
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Apr
Ju
ne
Aug
Oct
De
c
Feb
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2016
Source: Amárach Research, February 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr
'09
May
Ju
nJu
lA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
0F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
1F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
2F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
3F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
4F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
5F
eb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
6F
eb
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Amárach Outlook
20Economic Recovery Index
2016 Beginning
2015 has been a good year when it comes to
tracking the recovery through our Economic
Recovery Index.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
Trends Report
Market research from just
€295 a month? Check out our
new PlanR service.
Simply register, select a
package that suits your needs
and start creating your own
research dashboard from over
100 different trend series,
statistics and forecasts.
Go get PlanR here:
http://getplanr.com/
Trends Report
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/