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The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision for Well-Being
Winners and Losers of Globalisation Vision Europe Summit Turin, Nov 15th 2017
Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki
[email protected] @leksis
’The period from the mid-nineteenth century to 1970 was one in which the working class benefited from the growth in productivity. Incomes became more equal. This is the economic performance that many have come to regard as normal.'
'Most discussions in the West focus on how technological evolution in the West affects jobs in the West. This frame is too narrow for the twenty-first century: we must investigate the effect of technological change on work everywhere. For the past three centuries, the global economy has been sufficiently integrated that new technology in one place affects work in others.’
THE PROMISE OF THE 20TH CENTURY
COMPANIES
PEOPLESTATEWELFARE
WO
RKGRO
WTH
WAG
ES
LABOU
R
TAXESSOCIAL SECURITY
TAXES
INVES
TMEN
TS
(edu
catio
n, in
fra
)
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y <2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y <2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
N E T H E R L A N D S -0,5–1%
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y <2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%
N E T H E R L A N D S -0,5–1%
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y <2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%
J A P A N -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%
F I N L A N D -0,5–1%
D E N M A R K -1,5–1,5%
U S A
4–5%G E R M A N Y <2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M 1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C -0,5–1,5%
J A P A N -1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%
1. Ageing population
2. Technological deflation
3. Declining industrial regions
4. Need to limit most polluting
resources
THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT?
World Economic Forum
5m JOBS lost across 15 developed nations by 2020
137mWORKERS across Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam at risk from automization
International Labor Organisation
Globalisation: Does democracy work in
the middle of structural changes in the economy?
Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population
How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?
Globalisation: Does democracy work in
the middle of structural changes in the economy?
Ecological sustainability: Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population
How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?
Technology: Our democracies are tuned
for the world of the 20th century. Are we even asking the right questions?
'The need for educated workers led to the expansion of state provision of education. The increasing number of educated people prompted the invention of technologies that took advantage of education8. Those technologies led to further demand for education. At the same time, the public provision of infrastructure — roads and airports, for instance — was crucial for the development of industries involving cars and aircraft. Public support for research in medicine, agriculture and technologies with military applications, such as electronics and aircraft, underlaid many advances. The welfare state helped to spread the benefits of this economic development across the population.’
Robert C. Allen: ”Lessons from history for the future of work”, Nature 18 October 2017
• SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS • WELFARE STATE • PRIMARY EDUCATION
SYSTEM • URBAN PLANNING • TRADE UNIONS • REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRACY
1790 18401830182018101800
2005 20552045203520252015
Can we speed up the transformation towards the next
era of wellbeing?
2017BASIC INCOME EXPERIMENT
20?? “NEXT ERA
SOCIAL CONTRACT”
[EXPERIMENTS + FRAMEWORKS + POLICIES NEEDED]
What if…Basic income covers a large share of your living costs?
Healthcare turns preventive and cheap due to technology?
Sharing platforms enable cash-free lifestyles?
Our pensions are collaborative and mutual?
We go through a university level training seven times in our lifetime?
Peer learning takes off massively?
Access to artificial intelligences becomes a citizen right?
What is particularly valuable in the (future) Nordic model? (according to VES network participants)"Social justice, environnemental values and human rights”
”The principles of inclusiveness and equality”
”Combining economic growth with a relatively equal distribution of net income”
”Low levels of hierarchies”
VISION FOR NEXT ERA OF WELLBEING?
It should (in a sober manner) accept planetary boundaries, broad international collaboration and technological development as core beliefs.
Would focus policies on • inclusive circular economy, • progressive of democracy and (both public and private) institutions, and • improving level of skills and capabilities.
Could make citizen to feel that • New forms of work and income provide opportunities for them, • They are being heard and are motivated to dialogue and collaboration w/ others • They can and should learn and grow as humans throughout their lives.