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J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
PAGE 3
N U M B ER O F A M E R IC ANS W H O V I E W C O U NTRY O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K I S H I G H ES T S I N CE 2 0 1 2
The percentage of Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 12, 2016
RIGHT DIRECTION 25.2%
WRONG TRACK 65.5%
PAGE 4
A M E R IC ANS A R E D I S S AT ISF IED O R A N G R Y A B O UT T H E WAY T H I N GS A R E G O I N G I N WA S H I NG TON
Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington –enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015
31%
53%
12%
1%
Angry
Dissatisfied but not angry
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Enthusiastic
47% 49%
Approve Disapprove
Barack Obama's Current Job Approval
15%
75%
Approve Disapprove
Congress Current Job Approval
Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, January 7-10, 2016
Source: Gallup Poll, January 4-10, 2016
PAGE 5
P U B L I C’S I S S UE P R I ORI TI ES R E F L ECT S A N AT I ON T H AT F E E L S L E S S S E C U RE
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9, 2015
Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to
address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top
priority for the federal government?
National security has become the top issue on the public’s mind for the federal
government to address, overtaking jobs and the
economy.
PAGE 6
D I S T I NCT S P L I T B E T WE EN T H E PA R TIE S O N T H E M O S T I M P O RTAN T I S S UE
38%
17% 19%
8%
2%
29%
38%
5% 7%4%
Economy Terrorism Health Care Immigration Tax Policy
Democrats Republicans
Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, December 10-13, 2015
PAGE 7
D I F F E RENCE S I N AT T RI BUT ES V O T E RS A R E L O O K I NG F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M INE E; D E M O CRATS D E S IR E F O R A L I B E R AL C A N D ID ATE H A S G R O W N
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about needs/problems
28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Right experience 16% 8%
Best chance of winning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?
December 2007 December 2015
60% 60%
Republicans / Leaners Who Prefer Conservative Presidential Candidate
December 2007 December 2015
30% 36%
Democrats / Leaners Who Prefer Liberal Presidential Candidate
Source: Gallup Poll, December 2-6, 2015
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 9
S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 1 2 C A N D IDATE S
Dropped Out
PAGE 10
H I G H ER C A M PAI GN I N T E REST A M O N G R E P U BLI CANS T H A N AT S A M E P O I N T I N ’ 0 8 ;
65%
35%
80% 79%
48%
69%
65%
34%
64%
Dec-15Jan-12Feb-08
% who would describe the presidential election campaign so far
as “interesting”
Democrat Republican Independent
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
74%
86%
71% 75%66%
72%
Dec-07 Dec-15
% giving a lot/some thought to the candidates
Republican Democrat Independent+10
-15
PAGE 11
T R U M P S U P PO RT H A S P I C K ED B A C K U P ; C A R S ON FA LTERS A S C R U Z C L I M BS
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
12% 14%
9%9%
7% 6% 5%6%
5% 6% 6%
8%13%
19%
11%
8%6%
9% 10%
15%11%
5%
15%
31%28% 28%
34%37%
10% 8%
14%17%
21%
14%
8%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 37.0%Ted Cruz 19.3%
Marco Rubio 11.3%Ben Carson 7.5%
Jeb Bush 5.0%Chris Christie 3.2%Carly Fiorina 2.7%Rand Paul 2.6%
John Kasich 2.4%Mike Huckabee 2.2%Rick Santorum 0.6%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of January 13, 2016
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 PAGE 12
M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC ANS H AVE N’ T M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; J U S T O N E I N F O U R S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R U MP
41%36%
63%58%
64%
36%
Total Cruz supporter Trump supporter
Made up Might change
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
5%
7%
10%
12%
13%
14%
24%
28%
Cruz
Rubio
Christie
Carson
Kasich
Paul
Bush
Trump
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?
PAGE 13
R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E M O R E C O N DI FENC E I N T R U M P T H A N O T H E R C O N T END ERS W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E E C O N OMY, T E R ROR ISM
Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015
51%
23%16%
26%
15%
Donald Trump
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush
% Very Confident
How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy?
40%
16%20%
30%
17%
Donald Trump
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush
% Very Confident
How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to handle the threat of terrorism?
PAGE 14
T R U M P A N D C R U Z R U N A C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E T R U MP L E A D S I N N E W H A M P SH IRE
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 29.1%Marco Rubio 14.2%
Ted Cruz 11.9%Chris Christie 11.3%John Kasich 10.5%
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 27.9%Ted Cruz 27.7%
Marco Rubio 12.7%Ben Carson 7.6%
Jeb Bush 4.2%
Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
PAGE 16
C L I N TON O N T O P I N D E M O C RATI C R A C E, B U T S A N DER S H A S N A R R OWE D H E R L E A D
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 52.4%Bernie Sanders 38.5%Martin O’Malley 2.4%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of January 13, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
12%17%
24% 25%30% 33%
39%
60% 58%
47% 45%
55% 56% 52%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton
PAGE 17
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P O N W H I C H C A N D IDAT E T H E Y A R E S U P P ORTI NG
57% 59% 55%
41% 38%44%
Total Clinton supporter
Sanders supporter
Made up Might change
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
8%
9%
19%
58%
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
No one
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 18
T H E R A C E I S C L O S E B E T W EEN C L I NTON A N D S A N DE RS I N B O T H I O WA A N D N E W H A M P S HIRE
Candidate Average
Bernie Sanders 49.8%Hillary Clinton 44.3%
Martin O’Malley 2.7%
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 45.9%Bernie Sanders 42.2%Martin O’Malley 5.1%
P R E D I C T I O N M A R K E T & W H A T ’ S U P C O M I N G
PAGE 20
T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS
Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
3%
10%
21%
32%
34%
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
PredictWise Chance of Winning Republican Nomination
1%
16%
83%
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning Democratic Nomination
As of January 14th
PAGE 21
A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E WAT CH ED AT L E A S T S O M E O F T H E P R E S I DEN TIA L D E B ATES, A C O M P LE TE C O N T RAST T O 8 Y E A R S A G O
Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015
43%
69%
57%
31%
Dec-07
Dec-15
Yes No
So far, have you watched any of the televised debates between presidential candidates or haven’t you had a chance to watch any of them?
PAGE 22Source: Washington Post
D E B ATE S C H E DUL E
PAGE 23
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
18 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS
PAGE 24
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S B E L I EVE T H E 2 0 1 6 C A M PAIGN T O B E “ I N T E RES TING ,” “ T O O N E G ATI VE, ” A N D “ N O T F O C US ED O N I M P O RTAN T P O L IC Y D E B ATES .”
Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015
26%
67%
Dull Interesting
Would you describe the presidential campaign as dull or interesting?
54%
39%
Too negative Not too negative
34%
58%
Focused on important policy
debates
Not focused on important policy
debates
Would you describe the presidential campaign as too negative or not?
Would you describe the presidential campaign as focused on important policy debates or not?
PAGE 25
N E I T HE R F R O NT RUNN ER M E T W I T H A L O T O F E N T H USI ASM; S O M E WHAT M O R E A N X IE TY A B O U T A T R U MP P R E S ID ENCY T HAN A C L I N TON O N E
Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, Dec 4-8, 2015
If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office?
If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what she will do in office?
Total Rep Dem Ind
Excited 11% 25% 2% 8%
Optimistic, not excited
24% 41% 8% 23%
Concerned,not scared
24% 20% 25% 26%
Scared 40% 13% 63% 41%
Total Rep Dem Ind
Excited 9% 2% 22% 4%
Optimistic, not excited
33% 8% 54% 35%
Concerned,not scared
23% 24% 17% 27%
Scared 34% 65% 6% 32%
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GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt ([email protected])