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Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
July 25, 2016
H E A D I N G I N T O T H E D E M O C R A T I C C O N V E N T I O N
PAGE 3
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS D E S C RIB E T H E PA R TY A S U N I T E D
United58%
Divided40%
Don’t know/No answer
2%
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
Would you describe the Democratic Party
today as united or divided?
L A R G E M A J O RI TY O F D E M O CR ATS S AY PA R TY W I L L U N I T E B E H I ND C L I NTO N
24% 72%
Have disagreements that keep many from supporting her Unite solidly behind her
Among Democratic primary preference
% of Democratic/Dem-leaning registered voters who say if Clinton is the party’s nominee, the party will…
58%
82%
Sanders
Clinton
Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016
Just more than half of Sanders supporters think the party will
solidly unite behind Clinton
PAGE 4
A M O N G D E M O CRATS , W E A KE R S U P P ORT F O R C L I NTO N T H A N F O R O T H E R N O M I NEE S S I N C E G O R E
40%
59% 58%
45%
2000 2004 2008 2016
% who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’
Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26 PAGE 5
A LT H OUG H A M E RI CANS N O T S AT ISF IED W I T H C H O I CES, M O S T D E M O CRAT S S AT IS FIE D W I T H C L I N TON
PAGE 6
Clinton 54%
Someone else 45%
No opinion1%
Are you satisfied that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, or would you have preferred that the Democratic Party nominated someone else?
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
Satisfied40%
Dissatisfied58%
No opinion2%
How do you feel about a choice between (Clinton) and (Trump) as the major-party candidates for president?
Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
PAGE 7
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A P P RO VE O F O B A M A’S J O B P E R F OR MANCE , B U T M A N Y T H I N K U S A I S O N W R O NG T R A CK
73%
18%
Off on the wrong track
Headed in the right direction
All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Approve56%
Disapprove42%
No opinion2%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president?
Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
N E A R LY H A L F O F A M E R I CANS C R E DIT O B A M A F O R A N I M P R OVE D E C O N OMY
Which of these best describes your view of the economy during Barack Obama's presidency?
36%
15%
49%
The economy has not really improved
The economy has improved, but I do not give Obama much credit for it
The economy has improved, and I give Obama some credit for it
PAGE 8Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
A M E R IC ANS WA N T T H E N E X T P R E S IDE NT T O H AV E P O L I TI CAL E X P E RI ENC E, R AT HE R T H A N B E A N O U T S IDE R
All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
4%
41%
55%
No opinion
Outside establishment
Experience in political system
PAGE 9Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S
M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W O F T R U M P A N D C L I NTO N
54% 52% 54% 55% 57%60% 60% 57% 54% 59% 55% 55% 54%
66%
58%64%
60% 57%64% 62% 63% 64%
60% 59% 59% 57%
Clinton Trump
Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/20PAGE 11
S A M E S H A R E O F V O T E R S S AY C L I NTO N I S A S H O N E S T A S T R U M P, M O R E S AY S H E H A S T E M PER AMEN T A N D J U D GE MENT T O S E R V E
39% 44% 48% 49% 54% 59%
39%46%
35% 36% 35%28%
Is more honest and trustworthy
Would do more to bring change to
Washington
Better understands the problems of people like you
Better represents your own personal values
Has better judgment Has a better personality and
temperament to serve effectively as
president
Clinton Trump
Who do you think ___, Clinton or Trump?
PAGE 12Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
A LT H OUG H F E W ER V O T E RS S AY C L I N TON I S S I N C ER E, M O R E T H A N S I X - IN -TE N S AY S H E H A S T H E R I G H T E X P ERI ENC E
41% 38% 41% 44%
64%
49%39% 42%
52%
32%
Is sincere in what she says Someone you would be proud to have as president
Will unite the country and not divide it
Is running for president for the good of the country, not
for personal gain
Has the right experience to be president
Clinton Trump
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies or doesn't apply to Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Source: CNN/ORC July 13-16, 2016 & July 22-24, 2016 PAGE 13
M O R E V O T ER S S AY C L I NTO N Q U A LI FI ED T O S E R V E A S P R E S I DENT
Qualified37%
Qualified59%
Not Qualified60%
Not Qualified39%
Donald Trump Hillary ClintonPAGE 14
Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for [him/her], do you think [Trump or Clinton] is or is not qualified to serve as president?
Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
M A J O RI TIE S O F V O T E R S T H I NK T R UM P I S R A C I A LLY B I A S ED, AND C L I N TON I S T O O W I L L I NG T O B E N D R U L ES
Is biased56%
Is not biased39%
No opinion5%
Is not too willing 21%
Is too willing72%
No opinion7%
Do you think Hillary Clinton is or is not too willing to bend the rules?
Do you think Donald Trump is or is not biased against women and minorities?
PAGE 15Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
M O R E T H A N H A L F S AY E M A I L S C A NDA L I S I M P O RTAN T, A N D H A L F S AY I T I S E V I D EN CE O F P O O R J U D G MEN T
Is important
55%
Is not important
35%
Don't know enough
10%
Has the right
judgment 33%
Does NOT have the right
judgment 50%
Don’t know enough
15%
Not sure2%
Based on what you have heard or learned about the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State, do you believe she has the right judgment to make a good president or not?
Now, thinking about what you have seen, read, or heard about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State, would you say it IS or it is NOT an important factor in your deciding whether to vote for her as president?
PAGE 16Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N
C L I N TON ’S L E A D S H R I NKS N ATI ONA LLY P O S T R N C C O N V ENT ION ; F E W V O T E RS M AY C H A N GE V O T E
Clinton voters
Trumpvoters
Yes, mind made up 94% 90%No, might change before election
5% 9%
(Among registered voters)
Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/25/16 Source: CBS News Poll 7/22-7/24
Is your mind made up?
PAGE 18
Clinton 42.4%
Trump 41.7%
P O S T R E P UB LIC AN C O N V ENTI ON B O U N CE F O R T R U MP
PAGE 19Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 22-24, 2016
42%37%
13%
5%
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Pre-‐Convention (July 13-‐16)
39%44%
9%
3%
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Post-‐Convention (July 22-‐24)
-3+7
S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
AZ
FL
VAOH
PAIA
WI
CONV
(7/5-7/12)Clinton: 44.6%Trump: 36.6%
(6/22-7/15)Clinton: 42.3%Trump: 39.3%
(6/21-7/10)Clinton: 44.3%Trump: 38.7%
(6/22-7/11)Clinton: 45.5%Trump: 42.3%
Clinton: 43.8%Trump: 39.0%
(6/13-7/12)
Clinton: 44.0%Trump: 43.4%
(6/25-7/11)
(6/22-7/20)Clinton: 43.5%Trump: 42.0%
Trump: 44.0%Clinton: 43.5%
(5/24-7/10)
Clinton: 43.5%Trump: 43.0%
(6/20-6/23)
NC Clinton: 43.3%Trump: 42.0%
(6/20-7/11)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 7/25/16
PAGE 20
NOTE: No new state polls released post RNC convention yet
S L I G H TLY M O R E A M E R ICA NS W O U L D P R E FE R A D E M O CR ATIC P R E S I DENT O V E R A R E P U BL ICA N
41%
46%
Republican
Democrat
Now, putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of this year’s presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?
PAGE 21Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
F I R S T C Y C L E T H AT M O R E D E M OC RATS A R E V O T I N G A G A I NST O T H E R C A N D IDAT E R AT HER T H A N F O R T H E IR O W N
PAGE 22
64%
59%
68%
72%
48%
30%
37%
25%
22%
50%
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
60%
73%
59%
38%
41%
33%
23%
35%
58%
55%
Among Republican candidate supporters Among Democratic candidate supporters
Would you say your choice is more a vote FOR ____ or AGAINST _____?
For own candidateFor own candidateAgainst other candidate Against other candidate
Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26
W H A T ’ S N E X T
PAGE 24
K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E
Event DateDemocratic National Convention July 25-28
First Presidential Debate September 26Vice Presidential Debate October 4
Second Presidential Debate October 9Third Presidential Debate October 16
Election Day November 8
Countdown to Election Day (from July 28): 102 days
PAGE 25
F E W E ST D E M O CRATS O R R E P U BL ICA NS A R E S AT I SF IED W I T H T H E AVA I LA BLE C H O ICE S S I N C E 1 9 9 2
33%
53% 64% 61%
72%64%
43%40%44%
69% 72%
47% 52%40%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Democrat/ Lean Dem
Republican/ Lean Rep
DEM CAND
GOP CAND
IND CAND
CLINTON
BUSH
PEROT
CLINTON
DOLE
PEROT
GORE
BUSH
KERRY
BUSH
OBAMA
MCCAIN
OBAMA
ROMNEY
CLINTON
TRUMP
% of registered voters who are very/fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates
Source: Pew Research Center
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GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
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