SPEAKERS: ANDREW O’BRIEN, HEAD OF POLICY, CHARITY FINANCE GROUP (CFG)

DR ALEXANDRA KELSO, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICS, SOUTHAMPTON UNIVERSITY

FACILITATOR: RUTH DRISCOLL, HEAD OF POLICY AND PUBLIC SERVICES, NCVO

S3: NCVO’S ANALYSIS OF THE 2015 ELECTION: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR YOUR ORGANISATION

1. A Tale of Two Osbornes

2. Some budgets are more equal than others

3. Social Investment – The Cheshire Cat of Voluntary Sector Funding?

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THE ECONOMIC AND FUNDING CONSEQUENCES OF THE ELECTIONANDREW O’BRIEN, HEAD OF POLICY, CHARITY FINANCE GROUP

“That is why, in the second phase of our deficit reduction plan starting in 2018-19, we are set to move into surplus, with the Government taking in more than it is spending for the first time in 18 years. That means we can start properly paying

down our debts and reducing the scale of annual interest payments – reducing the UK’s

vulnerability to future shocks by fixing the roof while the sun is shining.” – Conservative Party

Manifesto, 2015

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“Osborne, the poster child for British austerity, is starting to look like a closet Keynesian.” – Lord Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy, University of Warwick, December 2014

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Copyright:Lord Skidelsky

• In 2010 Osborne said that he was going to cut the deficit within one parliament.

• But economic events combined with the unpopularity of some measures meant that he scaled back his ambition.

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DR OSBORNEOR HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE DEFICIT

COULD THE SAME THING HAPPEN AGAIN?

• The Conservatives have promised to protect the NHS, schools budget, the aid budget and maintain the ‘triple lock’ on state pensions.

• Good news if you work in these areas!

• But…this closes down government’s room for manoeuvre and means that there will be sharp cuts in other budgets.

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SOME BUDGETS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERSFISCAL POLICY IN THE AGE OF ‘PROTECTION’

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WHAT DOES PROTECTION LOOK LIKE?

Source: IFS Green Budget 2015

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WHAT DOES PROTECTION LOOK LIKE?

Source: IFS Green Budget 2015

• Some departments budgets will have to be radically altered in order to meet the objective of securing a surplus.

• These figures do not include the protection of schools budget or the welfare cuts, but show how this could break down for individual departments.

“We will innovate in how we deliver public services

We have pioneered ways to deliver high-quality public services, including through getting the voluntary sector more involved. For example, our Work Programme has helped harness the talent and energy of charities to help people turn their lives around and find their way back into work. We will examine ways to build on this

type of innovative approach in the future.

We have also pioneered the use of social impact bonds and payment-by-results, and we will look to

scale these up in the future, focusing on youth unemployment, mental health and homelessness.”

Conservative Party Manifesto 2015

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“Access will not only inject an additional £100m of funding support, but also grow understanding of what effective support looks like to enable the social economy to reach its full potential.” – Rob Wilson, Minister for Civil Society, February 2015

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• Significant amounts have been committed or made available for social investment, including tens of millions for the Access Foundation and Investment and Contract Readiness Fund.

• But it can take a while for it to reach the frontline and how much of this social investment is in a form that charities can use?

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SOUNDS IMPRESSIVE BUT HOW MUCH GETS TO THE FRONTLINE?

Source: Big Society Capital Annual Report 2014

THANK YOU…AND MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOURAndrew O’BrienHead of Policy & Public AffairsCharity Finance Group

Email: andrew.o’brien@cfg.org.uk

Download our latest Economic Outlook Briefing, April 2014 from our website.

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