Impact of conflict on

Public investment in

children

Presentation made by Bob Libert Muchabaiwa, IiC Manager,

Save the Children-CRGI: BLM@redbarnet.dk

Child Protection Knowledge and Learning Event ( 7-9 December 2015, Dakar)

Outline of the Presentation

Conceptualizing Investment in Children: An

overview

Child protection risks during conflicts

Modelling impacts of conflict on investment

in children

Evidence of impacts of conflicts on IiC

Programming IiC work in conflict contexts

What is Public Investment in

Children?

Direct and indirect public spending

of available domestic and

international resources to sectors and

programmes that significantly

contribute to the implementation of

children’s rights outlined in the UN

CRC.

Conceptualizing Investment in

Children: An overview IiC = F(AR + RA + RU + PFM)

Where

IiC = Investment in Children

F = Function of

AR = Available Resources

RA = Resource Allocation

RU = Resource Utilization

PFM = Effective Public Finance Management (Accountability, transparency, public participation, reporting, auditing etc)

4

Examples of risks of conflicts to

children

Violence (Sexual, physical and

emotional); injuries; Deaths

Separation from family, abandonment and

displacement

Hunger and Starvation

Deprived from accessing essential services such as health, education and

social assistance

Risks of conflict to children

Costs of Conflict (to the child, society

and governments)

Direct costs

Indirect costs

Societal and Long term costs

Opportunity Costs

Externality / spillover costs

Illustrative example of costs of

conflict on children

Child is involved in war, leg

fractured and also gets HIV after being

raped.

Cost of treatment,

rehabilitation

Delayed education

Cost of managing

disability and terminal illness

Social exclusion

Reduced life time earnings

and high levels of poverty

Risks of

conflict Direct Costs Indirect Costs

Long term

Costs

Public Investment in Children During

Conflicts : Where should money go?

Humanitarian Services

• WASH

• Child Protection

• Education in Emergences

• Food and Non-Food items

• ………

Ongoing Development Programmes

• Health

• Education

• Social protection

• Infrastructure Development

• ………….

Post-Conflict investments

• Disaster risk reduction

• Education

• Peace building

• Infrastructure development

E.G

Investments guided by systems theory and CR Principles

Modelling impacts of conflict on

investment in children

Imp

ac

ts o

f C

on

flic

t o

n IiC

Depressed Government Revenue

Regression/ Changes in allocations and expenditure patterns

PFM systems and processes compromised

Denial

of

Child

Rights

Depressed Government Revenue: Less

resources to Investment in Children

Capital flight, reduced DFI and constrained household income

Reduced domestic revenue, especially from Tax

Debt accumulation: Repayment problems+ new debt

ODA diverted to emergencies

Depressed government revenue: Case

of South Sudan

Conflict that broke out in South Sudan in 2013 resulted in a 15%

decline in GDP between December 2013 and 2014. This is partly

because of a decrease in oil production .

Domestic debt soared from nearly 0% in 2011 to approximately

12% of GDP end of 2014 (IMF 2014).

Between 2005 and 2011, foreign aid and technical assistance

amounted to about US$500 million per year, now an estimated 1.8

Billion humanitarian financing is required.

Refugee Response Plan alone, for 2015, by Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan

and Kenya was estimated at US$ 809,913,788

Regression/ Changes in allocations

and expenditure patterns

Allocations

• Cuts in child focused budgets

• Security prioritized

• ………..

Equity of spending

• Budgets become inequitable

• Increase in number and scope of financial barriers

• ………….

Expenditure patterns

• Budget implementation affected

• Corruption rises

• ………..

Regressed child focused expenditures:

Case of South Sudan

Planned social and development expenditures for financial

year 2014/ 2015 decreased by 35% from financial year

2013/2014

At least US$15 billion will be required in the next 10 years to

address infrastructural challenges (IMF 2014).

In 2014, security expenditure accounted for nearly 36% of

entire government budget.

Committed humanitarian financing is equivalent to budget for

Ministry of Gender, Child and Social Welfare for 66 years, if the

budget for 2012/13 is maintained.

Virtually no budget for development expenditures

Regressed child focused expenditures:

Case of South Sudan

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

SSP M

illio

ns

Period in Year

Directorate of Child

Welfare

Regressed expenditures as security crowds out

social sector expenditures in South Sudan

0

10

20

30

40

2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

% allocation to security

PFM systems and processes

compromised

Procurement procedures ignored

Wastages

Budget timelines flouted

Poor accountability

Lack of transparency

No financial audits

Co

rru

ptio

n

Pu

blic

pa

rticip

atio

n

PFM systems weakened: Case of South

Sudan

Supplementary budget passed in February 2014

In early 2014, a “Crisis management committee” took

over spending decisions.

Budget sector working groups not meeting as per

plan, Public Participation near impossible.

Fiscal transparency and accountability

compromised.

Other Impacts of conflict on IiC

Difficult for citizens to track budgets and to hold

governments to account.

Minimal integration of non-government financial

flows into state budgeting

Poor local-level / subnational level financing

from government - increased centralization

Fiscal Accountability and transparency

mechanisms weakened

Planning IiC interventions in

conflict situations

Before During

After

Before the conflict

What to invest in?

Early warning systems and conflict prevention

Disaster risk reduction

Resilience building

Other public policy and financial management issues

Reserve funds

Policy on use of Special Drawing Rights

Policy on borrowing, including ceilings, powers of the finance minister and president

etc.

Policy on counter-cyclical spending.

Expand domestic revenue base

During the conflict

What to invest in more?

Child protection.

Relief and humanitarian services

Safe guarding key public spending in health, education, social assistance etc

Key policy considerations and strategic actions by CSOs

Counter-cyclical spending

Donor coordination in line with principles of good donorship

Monitor potential abuse of available resources

Tracking of child focused donor funding.

Humanitarian financing advocacy

After the conflict

What to invest in?

Costing of child focused reconstruction and recovery programmes

Child protection

Human capital development

Child rights impact assessment of conflict and humanitarian situation.

Disaster risk reduction

Key policy and other strategic considerations

Post conflict recovery programmes

Influencing donor and IFI start up packages, recovery and stabilization plans.

Costing losses and any reversals in the situation of children.

Audit of debts procured and implications on financing of children’s rights

Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization

Demilitarization and demining

Thank You