Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
DIASPORA NETWORKS AS A BRIDGE BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS Ishac Diwan (PSL & ERF) Michele Tuccio (U Southampton) Jackline Wahba (U Southampton & ERF)
A GAP IN THE LITERATURE
ORIGIN COUNTRY
SAVINGS, REMITTANCES, HUMAN CAP.
ACCUMULATION
...
MIGRATION
¡ In the debate about the desirability of migration, the positive impact of migrant populations on the future evolution of their countries of origin has not been c o n s i d e r e d , b e s i d e s occasional references to the possibility of transmitting i n v e s t m e n t s k i l l s a n d finance.
¡ The social and cultural aspect of this equation has mostly been overlooked.
OUR RESEARCH QUESTIONS
ORIGIN COUNTRY
SAVINGS, REMITTANCES, HUMAN CAP.
ACCUMULATION
...
MIGRATION
¡ Do international migrants transfer social norms from d e s t i n a t i o n t o o r i g i n countries?
¡ To what extent can the migration-induced transfer of norms affect the long-term prospects of peace a n d s t a b i l i t y i n t h e i r countries of origin?
SOCIAL NORMS
FILLING THE GAP
¡ We examine whether the Arab diaspora in Western and Gulf countries “transmit” different values to their household members back home.
¡ Exploiting Gallup/Silatech data, we focus on two sets of values: sympathy to the West, and a sense of optimism about the future.
¡ We first adopt a cross-country approach looking at the impact of diaspora networks on the main labor sending countries in MENA, before having an in-depth look at the case study of Tunisia.
¡ We control for the double selectivity of migration: selection into emigration and selection into destinations.
A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
¡ The role of the diaspora on the opinions of the left-behind has recently received great attention in the economic literature.
¡ Transfer of gender norms ¡ Tuccio and Ferrant, WD 2015 – Cross-country ¡ Tuccio and Wahba, IZA WP 2015 – Jordan
¡ Transfer of fertility norms ¡ Beine et al., CJE 2013 – Cross-country ¡ Bertoli and Marchetta, WD 2015 – Egypt
¡ Transfer of political norms ¡ Spilimbergo, AER 2009 – Cross-country ¡ Batista and Vicente, WBER 2011 – Cape Verde ¡ Beine and Sekkat, IZA JoM 2013 – Cross-country ¡ Chauvet and Mercier, JCE 2014 – Mali ¡ Docquier et al., JDE 2016 – Cross-country ¡ Rapoport et al., AEJ:AE 2016 – Moldova ¡ Tuccio et al., IZA WP 2016 – Morocco
A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
¡ The empirical evidence suggests that, through exposure to different values, international migration is a powerful way to modify both social and political norms in origin countries.
¡ However, there is to date no evidence on the extent to which diaspora networks and their migration-induced transfer of norms affect the long-term prospects of peace and stability.
¡ In this work, we aim at tackling in particular the following yet unanswered questions:
1. whether diaspora networks transfer more tolerant social and political norms towards other nations to the families at origin, thereby acting as a bridge between civilization;
2. whether migrant networks help the left behind coping with negative shocks, and improve life satisfaction and optimism for the future.
DATA
¡ Gallup World Poll Survey (GWPS), a survey conducted in over 150 countries using randomly selected, nationally representative samples. The GWPS typically surveys around 1,000 individuals in each location on a standard set of core questions plus a few supplemental variables that vary across regions.
¡ We make use of the extension produced by Silatech across the Middle East and North Africa region.
¡ Although the Gallup-Silatech Survey is available for several years, we restrict the analysis to Wave 4.2 in 2009, as this is the only wave including specific information about having a household member currently residing abroad as well as his/her destination.
¡ Restrict to 9 origin countries that are traditionally considered the main sources of migrants in the Arab world: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.
DATA
1. Do you think the interaction between the Muslim world and the Western world is getting better?
2. Is the quality of interaction between the Muslim and Western worlds important to you?
3. Do you think the Western World is committed to improving the interaction between the Muslim and Western worlds?
4. Do you think violent conflict between the Muslim and Western worlds can be avoided?
5. Do you approve the leadership of the USA?
Single variable | PCA | MCA | Equal weights
EMPIRICAL STRATEGY
¡ Our benchmark specification is the following:
Yic=α0+α1Mic+α2Xic+δc+εic
EMPIRICAL STRATEGY
¡ Our benchmark specification is the following:
Yic=α0+α1Mic+α2Xic+δc+εic
¡ SELECTION!
¡ To tackle selection into emigration, we use as exclusion restriction the number of children under 15 years of age currently living in the household: having kids of young age to take care of has been proved to reduce the propensity to migrate abroad (Epstein and Gang, 2006; Zaiceva and Zimmermann, 2008).
Mic=β0+β1Cic+β2Xic+δc+εic
EMPIRICAL STRATEGY
¡ Additional source of selectivity: among those who decide to move across borders, individuals going to the West or to the Gulf may select their destination on the basis of some kind of unobservables, such as open-mindedness.
¡ To tackle destination selectivity, we construct the exclusion restriction as follows:
1. We first look at all the destinations where respondents said to currently have a household member.
2. Second, using the data of the 2009 Gallup World Poll Survey for each of the GCC countries, we identify all migrant workers born in each of our 9 Arab countries of origin. We then sum the number of immigrants in the Gulf region born in each of these 9 origin countries.
3. In order to have heterogeneity among countries, we distinguish between high-skilled (secondary or higher educated) and low-skilled (primary or lower educated) immigrants.
4. Finally, we match these diaspora levels with our original households from the Gallup-Silatech Survey such that high-skilled (low-skilled) individuals in country c are matched with the number of high-skilled (low-skilled) immigrants from that same country c in the Gulf.
EMPIRICAL STRATEGY
Yic=α0+α1Mic+α2Xic+δc+εic
Mic=β0+β1Cic+β2Xic+δc+εic
Gic=γ 0+γ 1Dic+γ 2Xic+δc+εic
¡ Such a system of equations cannot be estimated using traditional 2SLS or Heckman models, because of the inter-linkages between the various decisions that have to be addressed simultaneously.
¡ We exploit the Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) estimator by Roodman (2011). CMP is indeed a suitable method of estimation of simultaneous multi-equation systems where appropriate exclusion restrictions allow the construction of a recursive set of equations. It fits a limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimator in which regressors appear unrelated (such as in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression framework), but there is correlation between errors.
RESULTS
RESULTS BY DESTINATION
THE CASE OF TUNISIA
¡ In order to shed more light on the role played by the diaspora, we focus on the case of Tunisia given its prominent role in the Arab Spring and its large diaspora in the West.
¡ This enables us to use longitude data (7 GWPS waves from 2008 to 2013) to identify the role of the diaspora before and after the Arab Spring to identify whether diaspora networks cushion the left behind during turbulent times.
¡ Such a difference-in-differences approach requires the estimation of the following specification:
Ojt=θ0+θ1Nj+θ2Pt+θ3Nj*Pt+θ4Zj+εjt
THE CASE OF TUNISIA
CONCLUSION
¡ Overall our findings suggest that migrant networks act as a bridge between civilizations by transferring more understanding of foreign nations, and by providing a psychological cushion during times of turbulence.
¡ The policy implications of this line of research are important: the fact that current migrants to countries with more emancipated social and political values are an investment in the future of their origin countries should shape the policies of accommodation at destination.
¡ So far, the EU response to the inflow of refugees has been largely focused on security issues. As the focus shifts to policies that stress social integration, the interest of those left behind at home should be kept in mind, both in terms of speeding up the absorption of more modern values, and decreasing pressures from stressful events .
THANK YOU [email protected]
