Communicating emerging threats and potential crises to leaders

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  • Communicating emerging threats and

    potential crises to leaders

    Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director

    The Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies,

    Swedish Defence University

  • Ongoing Crises

    Migration

    Islamic State

    Terrorism (Paris)

    Syria

    Resurgent Russia

    Financial Crisis

    Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

  • Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

    http://news.usni.org/2014/10/20/swedish-navy-hunts-mystery-underwater-object-russia-denies-involvement/1413790933744_wps_3_refile_updating_caption_t

  • Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

  • Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

  • Sensemaking

    Sensemaking before and during crises takes

    place within organizational, socio-technical

    and political contexts which both enable and

    constrain the ability of decision-makers to

    understand potential threats and

    opportunities.

    The agenda-politics perspective points to three

    main sources to explain unaddressed

    vulnerabilities and warning-response problems:

    overcrowded agendas, the failure of key actors

    to place issues high enough on the agenda to

    be acted on adequately, and competing

    priorities.

  • Fukushima

    Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

  • A Leaders Framework for Decision Making

    Cynefin

    Emergent practice

    Good practice

    Novel practice

    Best practice

    Harvard Business Review, David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone

    http://www.google.se/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=lflprGYkMVuqKM&tbnid=i8QiMVBqlOtsdM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://transitionconsciousness.wordpress.com/2013/10/16/cynefin-evolves/&ei=IQ0BU4_AKcq7ygPdvoH4Aw&bvm=bv.61535280,d.bGQ&psig=AFQjCNHhMRYf7WltcEmJRVGaJEY3EOsblg&ust=1392663949478219

  • Complexity the challenge

    COMPLEX (or WICKED) PROBLEMS

    Result from concurrent interactions among multiple systems of events,

    and they erode the customary boundaries that differentiate bureaucratic

    concepts and missions

    Cannot be broken apart and solved piece-by-piece. They must be

    understood and addressed as a system

    Cannot be permanently solved. Instead, they morph into new problems

    as the result of interventions to deal with them.

    Anticipatory Governance, Practical Upgrades Equipping the Executive Branch to Cope with Increasing Speed and Complexity of Major Challenges

    Leon S. Fuerth with Evan MH Haber, Oct 2012

  • Foresight a diciplined process

    Foresight is the disciplined analysis of alternative

    futures. It is not prediction, it is not vision, and it is not

    intelligence; it is a distinct process of monitoring

    prospective oncoming events

    analyzing potential implications, simulating

    alternative courses of action, asking unasked

    questions, and issuing timely warning to avert a risk

    or seize an opportunity.

    A foresight-generating and horizon-scanning system.

    detect trends and weak signals, visualize alternative

    futures

    Anticipatory Governance, Practical Upgrades Equipping the Executive

    Branch to Cope with Increasing Speed and Complexity of Major Challenges Leon S. Fuerth with Evan MH Haber, Oct 2012

  • https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-

    csi/vol42no5/pdf/v42i5a04p.pdf

    The support was geared to respond quickly to whatever we felt the situation called for.

    The day-to-day personal contact enabled us, in ad hoc fashion, to tailor the support.

    Requirements were not filtered; they were received directly, continually, and from the top level

    Relation and independence

    http://www.google.se/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=j_uI1-6BRxmvtM&tbnid=UW1IgCssNTEG8M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.docstoc.com/docs/28452609/Ronald-Reagan-and-the-Presidents-Daily-Brief-(RKerr&ei=6jzeUtzMGM6GyQO5loCoCg&bvm=bv.59568121,d.bGQ&psig=AFQjCNEumyNNpSYrYPhN8mX4FUCNPmXhHQ&ust=1390382655817404http://www.google.se/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=j_uI1-6BRxmvtM&tbnid=UW1IgCssNTEG8M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.docstoc.com/docs/28452609/Ronald-Reagan-and-the-Presidents-Daily-Brief-(RKerr&ei=6jzeUtzMGM6GyQO5loCoCg&bvm=bv.59568121,d.bGQ&psig=AFQjCNEumyNNpSYrYPhN8mX4FUCNPmXhHQ&ust=1390382655817404http://www.google.se/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=j_uI1-6BRxmvtM&tbnid=UW1IgCssNTEG8M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.docstoc.com/docs/28452609/Ronald-Reagan-and-the-Presidents-Daily-Brief-(RKerr&ei=6jzeUtzMGM6GyQO5loCoCg&bvm=bv.59568121,d.bGQ&psig=AFQjCNEumyNNpSYrYPhN8mX4FUCNPmXhHQ&ust=1390382655817404

  • The Grey Zon challenge

    Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

    War Crisis

    Civilian

    Military

    National

    International

    Internal

    External

  • Societal Security Whole-of-a-society-approach

    http://www.dn.se/DNet/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=2708&a=637718

  • Lars Hedstrm, Executive Director, Institute for National Defence and Security Policy Studies

    Communicating emerging threats and potential crises to leaders

    Independence, but integrated

    Relation and continuity

    Methods (complexity) and process

    Horison Scanning Model

    Built in to the system

    Unasked questions

  • Thank You!

    lars.hedstrom@fhs.se