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issn 1676-6288
cadernos prolam/usp
Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies
V. 13 — n. 24 — (Jan./Jun. 2014)
universidade de são pauloReitor: Prof. Dr. Marco Antonio ZagoVice-Reitor: Prof. Dr. Vahan Agopyan
Pró-reitora de Pós-Graduação: Profa. Dra. Bernadette Dora Gombossy de Melo FrancoPró-Reitora de Cultura e Extensão Universitária: Profa. Dra. Maria Arminda do Nascimento Arruda
Pró-reitor de Pesquisa: Prof. Dr. José Eduardo Krieger Pró-reitor de graduação: Prof. Dr. Antonio Carlos Hernandes
programa de pós-graduação em integração da américa latinaPresidente: Profa. Dra. Lisbeth Ruth Rebollo GonçalvesVice-Presidente: Vivian Grace Fernández-Dávila Urquidi
comissão de pós-graduação - cpgPresidente: Profa. Dra. Lisbeth Ruth Rebollo Gonçalves
Vice-Presidente: Profa. Dra. Vivian Grace Fernández-Dávila UrquidiProf. Dr. Márcio Bobik Braga
Profa. Dra. Maria Cristina CacciamaliProfa. Dra. Marilene Proença Rebello de Souza
REPRESENTANTES DISCENTES — Thais Virga Passos e Thais Oliveira
endereço para correspondência:PROLAM/USP
Rua do Anfiteatro, 181 — Colmeia — Favo 1 Cidade Universitária — 05508-060 — São Paulo — SP — Brasil — Fone/Fax: (11) 3091-3587 — 3815-0167
E-mail: [email protected] Page: www.usp.br/prolam
cadernos prolam/usp
Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies
V. 13 — n. 24 — (Jan./Jun. 2014)
© Todos os direitos reservados
EDI T ORA L T DA.Rua Jaguaribe, 571 — CEP 01224-001 — Fone (11) 2167-1101
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ISSN 1676-6288
CADERNOS PROLAM/USP — Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies. Cadernos do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Integração da América Latina da Universidade de São Paulo — PROLAM/USP. Editora: Maria Cristina Cacciamali. Vol. 13, n. 24 (Jan./Jun. 2014)
Semestral
1. Integração da América Latina. Universidade de São Paulo
2. Estudos Latino-americanos
Versão impressa - LTr 4982.6Versão digital - LTr 8546.6
CORPO EDITORIALPROfA. DRA. MARIA CRIsTInA CACCIAMALI
Editora dos Cadernos Prolam/USP – E-mail: <[email protected]>
PROf. DR. sEDI HIRAnOEditor Adjunto – E-mail: <[email protected]>
ME. MARCOs AnTônIO fávARO MARTInsEditor Assistente – E-mail:<[email protected]>
COnsELHO CIEnTÍfICOADALbERTO sAnTAnA
Centro Coordinador y Difusor de Estudios Latinoamericanos — Universidad Autónoma de México
Cidade do México, Distrito Federal, México
ALEjAnDRO sIMOnOffInstituto de Relaciones Internacionales — Universidad Nacional de La Plata
La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
AnA MARIA DA COsTA TOsCAnOCentro de Estudos Latino-americanos — Universidade Fernando Pessoa
Cidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
CARLOs AnTOnIO ROMERO MénDEzInstituto de Ciencias Jurídicas — Universidad Central de Venezuela
Caracas, Distrito Federal, Venezuela
CARLOs EDuARDO fERREIRA DE CARvALHOFaculdade de Economia e Administração — Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
Cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil
CLEMEnTE RuIz DuRánFaculdad de Economía — Universidad Autónoma de México
Cidade do México, Distrito Federal, México
GuILLERMO ARIAs bEATOnFacultad de Psicología – Universidad de Habana
Havana, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba.
HERvé THéRyCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique — Ministère de l’Éducation Nationale, de
l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche Paris-Ile-de-France, França
6
HuGO CAnCInO TROnCOsODepartment of Culture and Global Studies — Aalborg University
Kroghstraede Aalborg, Nord Jutlândia, Dinamarca
juAn AGuLLóInstituto Latino-americano de Economia, Sociedade e Política — Universidade Federal
da Integração Latino-americana
Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brasil
LuIz ALbERTO DE vIAnnA MOnIz bAnDEIRAInstitut für Übersetzen und Dolmetschen — Universität Heidelberg
Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Alemanha
LuÍs MAuRÍCIO CuERvOCentro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Económico — Universidad de Los Andes
Bogotá, Distrito Federal, Colombia
nORMA bREDA DOs sAnTOsInstituto de Relações Internacionais — Universidade de Brasília
Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brasil
PIERRE sALAMACentre d’Économie de Paris-Nord — Universidad de París XIII
Paris, Ile-de-France, França
RAúL bERnAL-MEzAPrograma de Maestría en Relaciones Internacionales —
Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos AiresCidade de Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina
sAnTOs MIGuEL RuEsGA bEnITODepartamento de Estructura Económica y Economía del Desarrollo — Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Cidade de Madri, Madri, Espanha
APOIO E InDEXAÇÃO:
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Sumário
Carta aos leitores ................................................................................. 9Do Payroll tax reDuCtions enhanCe emPloyment? PoliCy lessons from
Colombia .......................................................................................... 11baixar as Contribuições soCiais Gera emPreGo? lições De PolítiCa a
Partir Do Caso Colombiano
Stefano Farné
o ComérCio internaCional De serviços na amériCa latina: a DinâmiCa De evolução nos PeríoDos Das reCentes Crises ................................. 27
international traDe in serviCes in latin ameriCa: the DynamiCs of evo-lution in the PerioDs of the reCent Crises
Anita Kon
PolítiCas PúbliCas De eDuCação, PsiColoGia e neoliberalismo no brasil e no méxiCo na DéCaDa De 1990 ....................................................... 47
PubliC eDuCation PoliCies, PsyCholoGy anD neoliberalism in brazil anD mexiCo in the 1990Alayde Maria Pinto Digiovanni e Marilene Proença Rebello de Souza
métoDos PolinómiCos Como estimaDores Para la reCauDaCión fisCal: Caso aPliCaDo al imPuesto sobre nóminas en Quintana roo, méxiCo 61
Polynomial methoDs as estimators for tax ColleCtion: Case aPPlieD to Payroll tax in Quintana roo, mexiCo
Sergio Lagunas Puls e Genaro Aguilar Gutiérrez
las emPresarias mexiCanas miGrantes en los estaDos uniDos ................ 77mexiCan miGrant Women enterPrisers in the uniteD states
Patricia Rodríguez López
las relaCiones ComerCiales entre venezuela y alemania en el PeríoDo De entre Guerras ............................................................................. 91
eConomiC relations betWeen venezuela anD Germany in the interWar PerioD
Catalina Banko
Cuba em transformação: reGime PolítiCo e o Contexto Da “atualiza-ção moDelo Do eConômiCo e soCial” ............................................... 109
8
ChanGes in Cuba: the PolitiCal reGime anD the Context of the “uPDa-tinG eConomiC anD soCial moDel”Julian Araujo Brito
venezuela: DifiCulDaDes e ContraDições Para a atuação antissistêmiCa .. 125venezuela: aDversity anD ContraDiCtions for Antisystemic ConDuCt
Charles Pennaforte
a união De nações sul-ameriCanas: instituCionaliDaDe e Desafios ....... 137the union of south ameriCan nations: institutionality anD ChallenGes
Alexandre Ganan de Brites Figueiredo
DOCuMEnTOs
as CateGorias históriCas Do trabalho nos Censos latino-ameriCanos 153historiCal CateGories of labor in latin ameriCan Censuses
André Gambier Campos
9
Carta aoS leitoreS
Em sua edição de número 24, a Revista Cadernos Prolam Usp – Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies – traz para os seus leitores mais uma seleção de textos com excelência acadêmica sobre questões relevantes da América Latina.
É desafiador organizar um periódico de objetivos transdisciplinares e de escopo amplo como o nosso. Assim sendo, é justo começar nossa edição agradecendo aos nossos colaboradores que, em diferentes momentos do processo editorial, nos prestam impres-cindível apoio: aos autores, que confiam na nossa revista como palco do debate cientí-fico; aos nossos pareceristas e aos nossos parceiros da Editora LTr, que prestam sempre valorosa ajuda para a manutenção da qualidade das nossas publicações.
Neste vigésimo quarto fascículo, optamos por um leque variado de assuntos, sobre países de todos os quadrantes do nosso continente:
O professor Stefano Farné traz ao público um ótimo texto que analisa a relação entre tributação e geração de empregos na Colômbia. O artigo avalia a administração do presidente Uribe, com base na hipótese que a redução tributária é produtiva no sentido de gerar empregos. O artigo representa uma grande contribuição que os Cadernos Pro-lam têm a satisfação de publicar.
Anita Kon apresenta um excelente trabalho sobre os fluxos do comércio de serviços. A autora examina os fatores de impacto na construção de tais fluxos, levando em conta as crises econômicas e políticas da história recente. Com foco nos países da América Latina, o trabalho significa uma contribuição importante para os estudos da globalização econômica e dos seus impactos para as economias da América Latina.
Alayde Maria Pinto Digiovanni e Marilene Proença Rebello de Souza escrevem um artigo sobre as reformas educacionais da década de 1990 no México e no Brasil. O tra-balho, de natureza comparativa, mostra como os preceitos da educação neoliberal foram aceitos nestes importantes países da América Latina.
Um bom artigo para os interessados em métodos quantitativos e administração pública é o apresentado por Sergio Lagunas Puls e Genaro Aguilar Gutiérrez. O texto propõe o método Lagrange e a aproximação polinomial para a estimativa da arrecadação fiscal. O caso de estudo escolhido é o Estado mexicano de Quintana Roo.
Já Patricia Rodríguez López escreve sobre a migração mexicana para os Estados Uni-dos. A autora usa de dados empíricos para dissertar sobre a importância econômica e social das mulheres mexicanas que fundam empresas nos Estados Unidos. As conclusões que a autora chega sobre as atividades econômicas preferidas e o papel social destas mulheres empreendedoras podem ser conferidas neste bom trabalho de grande relevância social.
Catalina Banko, em um meticuloso trabalho de pesquisa documental, analisa o pa-pel das empresas alemãs exportadoras de café do primeiro pós-guerra para a construção das relações comerciais entre Venezuela e Alemanha. O artigo apresenta dados importan-
10
tes sobre o papel dos produtos agrícolas para a Venezuela da época, e faz considerações interessantes sobre os impactos da crise de 1929 nas relações bilaterais entre Venezuela e Alemanha.
Um estudo sobre as transformações do regime cubano é apresentado por Julian Araújo Brito. Com base na análise de documentos do Partido Comunista Cubano e em discursos de elementos proeminentes do governo de Cuba, o autor discute as transfor-mações porque passa a pequena e importante ilha do Caribe.
Charles Pennaforte faz um balanço da era Chávez e sintetiza o esforço do país para atuação antissistêmica. Fazendo uso de conceitos de Immanuel Wallerstein, Pennaforte trata da importância da integração regional para a atuação no sistema mundo.
Cobrindo o flanco do Direito Internacional, Alexandre Ganan de Brites Figueiredo analisa a estrutura institucional da União das Nações Sul-americanas (UNASUL). O artigo apresenta e discute as preocupações políticas e sociais da nova instituição, que é um exemplo importante do modelo do novo regionalismo latino-americano. O trabalho expõe também as perspectivas da UNASUL enquanto instrumento da integração sul--americana.
Na série especial de documentos, André Gambier Campos publica a proposta de estudo sobre a aplicação dos censos pelos Estados latino-americanos. O trabalho parte de uma perspectiva histórica, em que o objetivo de análise é a evolução conceitual da categoria “trabalho”, presente nos censos do Brasil, México e Chile desde o século XIX. Trata-se de uma iniciativa importante para a construção da história das estatísticas cen-sitárias na América Latina.
Com estes trabalhos, a Revista Cadernos Prolam/USP – Brazilian Journal of Latin American Studies – dá continuidade ao seu caminho, no sentido de se tornar o principal periódico brasileiro de assuntos latino-americanos, o que é buscado por meio da pesqui-sa avançada, da interdisciplinaridade e da perspectiva comparada.
Boa leitura!
Profa. Dra. Maria Cristina Cacciamali – Editora dos Cadernos Prolam/USP
Prof. Dr. Sedi Hirano – Editor Adjunto
Me. Marcos Antônio Fávaro Martins – Editor Assistente
11
Do PaYroll taX reDuCtioNS eNHaNCe emPloYmeNt? PoliCY leSSoNS From ColomBia(*)
BAIXAR AS CONTRIBUIÇÕES SOCIAIS GERA EMPREGO? LIÇÕES DE POLÍTICA A PARTIR DO CASO COLOMBIANO
Stefano Farné(**)
Universidad Externado de Colombia, Bogotá (DF), Colômbia
abstract: In order to reduce the large informal sector, the Colombian government has cut payroll taxes on two occasions in two years, with the Acts of Formalization and Employment Generation, and Tax Reform. In the first case the Act was estimated to generate 500.000 new formal jobs and in the second one between 400.000 and a million. This paper contextuali-zes the measures implemented, evaluates their theoretical consistency and comments the first available data after enactment of the two acts. The analysis does not lead to ratify optimistic governmental forecast, in line with recent international experience. In a raw, we discuss policy implications.
Keywords: Labour demand; Non-wage labour costs; Public policy.
resumo: Com o propósito de diminuir a elevada informalidade, o governo colombiano reduziu a carga tributária relacionada com a contratação trabalhista duas vezes em apenas dois anos, com as Leis de Formalização e Geração de Emprego e Reforma Tributária. No primeiro caso, se estima gerar 500.000 novos empregos formais e, no segundo, entre 400.000 a um milhão. Este artigo contextualiza as medidas implementadas, avalia a consistência teórica entre instrumentos empregados e resultados pretendidos e comenta os primeiros resultados ocupacionais obtidos. A análise nos leva a ratificar os otimistas prognósticos governamentais, em consonância com a recente experiência internacional. Ao final, discutem-se políticas públicas.
palavras-chave: Demanda de trabalho; Custos não salariais e benefícios trabalhistas; Políticas públicas.
(*) This document has been possible thanks to the financial support of the International Labour Organization (ILO), Office for Argentina. The author thanks the comments of Professor José Antonio Ocampo of the University of Columbia and doctor Fabio Bertranou of the ILO Office of Buenos Aires. He also thanks the assistance of David Rodríguez, researcher at the Observatoriodel Mercado de Trabajo. Opinions expressed are the exclusive responsibility of the author and not necessarily represent ILO’s.
(**) Doctor, Director of the Observatorio del Mercado de Trabajo, Universidad Externado de Colombia. E-mail: <[email protected]>. Received:16.05.2014, acept:20.06.2014.
Stefano Farné — Cadernos Prolam/UsP 13 (24): p. 11-26 [2014]
12
1 introduction
The government of Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia starting August 2010 embarked on a radical shift in labour market policy.
The administration of President Uribe (2002-2010) gave great emphasis to stimula-ting investment through general tax exemptions and in particular for the acquisition of capital assets. At the same time, Uribe’s administrationsignificantly raised contributions to social security, with the drawbackthat also the “pure” tax component of these con-tributions was increased. The minimum wage rose gradually, but steadily. Finally, from a broader macroeconomic context, the revaluation of the Colombian peso that began a decade ago must be highlighted.
All the mentioned events induced a profound change in relative prices of capital and labour, creating a strong anti-labour, anti-formal employment bias.
In order to reduce anti-labour bias and pressures on the productive sector arising from the revaluation of the currency, the new government considered of strategic im-portance to reduce the tax burden on companies hiring formal workforce. This strategy resulted in Act 1429 of 2010 on Formalization and Generation of Employment, and Act 1607 of 2012 on Tax Reform.
Three main sections compose this text. The first one is a theoretical framework that allows inferring the impact of payroll taxes on employment, within the context of a par-tial market equilibrium. A review of recent international empirical studies complements the analysis. In the second section, we examine Colombian experience in reducing so-cial contributions by companies. Measures implemented are contextualized, and some preliminary occupational results are presented. The third section summarizes the main arguments presented throughout the text, and brings some policy lessons derived from the Colombian case.
2 laBourtaX and emploYment
This section presents a standard theoretical model of the effects on labour market caused by changes in payroll taxes. It also proposes some criteria to follow when analy-sing these effects. Lastly, it summarizes the conclusions of a number of recent interna-tional microeconomic empirical studies that estimate the impact on employment of an across-the-board reduction of taxation to work.
2.1 THEORETICAL ISSUES
Economic theory comes to ambiguous conclusions at the time of setting forth the effects that may result on employment and wages from the introduction or changes in taxes on labour.
In the basic model, a perfectly competitive labour market without payroll taxes is in equilibrium when demand D� and supply S� are equal. The equilibrium wage is w� andemployment is set at E� (Figure 1). Under these conditions, the wage paid by com-panies coincides with the wage received by employees.
DO PAYROLL TAX REDUCTIONS ENHANCE EMPLOYMENT? POLICY LESSONS FROM COLOMBIA
13
The introduction of a payroll tax causes an inward shift of the demand curve in the amount of tax� . The intersection of the newlabour demand curve D� with the original supply curve determines the wage employees now receive ( w���� ). In turn, demand curve D� defines total labour costs per employee (wage plus tax) that now companies bear ( w���� ). Although this is a payroll tax, it is clear that tax� is not paid in full by employers, but rather is shared between employees and employers. The first ones contri-bute with an amount equal to w� - w���� , and the second ones with an amount equal to w���� - w� .
The percentage of the tax that employees assume accepting lower wages is known as “pass-through” effect.
In a perfectly competitive market, within the framework of partial equilibrium, the “pass-through” depends entirely on supply and demand elasticities of labour to wages,
and respectively, in absolute value:
It is clear that the “pass-through” effect will be higher if the supply curve tends to be inelastic to wage and/or the demand curve tends to be elastic.
However, certain payments made by the employer, despite not being directly recei-ved by the employee, provide benefits to the latter, and may be considered as deferred wages. This is the case, for example, of contributions to pension and health, or unem-ployment insurance.
Summers (1989, p.180) claims that “Mandated benefits represent a tax at a rate equal to the difference between the employers cost of providing the benefit and the employee’s valua-tion of it, not at a rate equal to the cost to the employer of providing the benefit”.
If employees see the contribution paid by the company as payment for a service to their benefit, they will be willing to assume progressively its cost or work harder for the same wage. This induces an outward shift of the labour supply curve, leading to a reduction of wages actually paid by the company.
Finally, the “pass-through” effect may be limited by the existence of unions and mandatoryminimum remunerations that make wages rigid downwardly. Thus, facing an increase in payroll taxes, a union with bargaining power can avoid significant reductions in wages. Also, when the State sets a minimum wage, companies find it impossible to transfer the higher cost that affects the payroll composed by minimum wage workers to lower wages.
Obviously, the “pass-through” effect works in both ways, for payroll tax increases as well as tax reductions.
Back to Figure 1, suppose that tax� is reduced to a level such as tax� , thus de-mand curve shifts from D� to D� . As a result, total labour costs fall, but not in the same amount by which tax decreases, because part of the tax, equal to w���� � w���� , trans-lates into higher wages for employees.
Stefano Farné — Cadernos Prolam/UsP 13 (24): p. 11-26 [2014]
14
So, if the “pass-through” is high, the effects of changes in payroll taxes are less significant, given that much of the increase (decrease) in taxes become lower (higher) wages and do not affect significantly the labour demand of companies.
Lastly, there are reasons to believe that the impact of payroll taxes on employment may have asymmetrical i.e., this is, that it may happen that reducing them may affect employment in a different quantity than an increase on taxes by the same magnitude (KESSELMAN, 1996, ARPAIA and CARONE, 2004, and KUGLER and KUGLER, 2008). This occurs because wages are more downward rigid (when payroll taxes increase) than upwards (when payroll taxes are reduced). In fact, in the case of the existence of a mini-mum wage, the law does not allow companies to reduce wages of employees hired with this wage if payroll taxes increase, this is, the “pass-through”effect is 0%.However, if taxes go down, there is no law which prevents wages from increasing, in which case the “pass-through” effect may be other than 0%. On the other hand, in the event of collective negotiation, employers and unions may perceive decreased payroll taxes as a “windfall gain” which they split among themselves without much dispute.
2.2 HOW TO ESTIMATE EFFECTS OF TAX REDUCTION ON EMPLOyMENT
Wage
Employment
w0
E0E1
S0
D0
D1D2
E2
Contribution from
Employer
Worker
tax1 tax2
w1,em
w1,wo
w2,em
w2,wo
Figure 01 eFFects oF payroll taxchanges on wages and employment
Source: Author’s own assumptions
If the effect on employment of a labour tax reduction is not predictable a priori by economic theory, empirical estimation becomes crucial to derive indications of policy.
Thus, in order to derive a correct estimate of the employment effects of a reduction in labour taxes several points should be considered.
DO PAYROLL TAX REDUCTIONS ENHANCE EMPLOYMENT? POLICY LESSONS FROM COLOMBIA
15
First, and because the impact on employment of labour taxes, as documented befo-re, has asymmetric features, we must recognize that empirical contributions that consi-der the employment effect of an increased payroll tax cannot be taken as a reference if, on the contrary, we want to know the impact produced by a reduction thereof.
Second, it should be clear that lowering taxes on labour does not lead to an equi-valent reduction in labour costs.This would be possible only when the “pass-through” effect becomes null. This is a situation that an extensive international empirical litera-ture tends to rule out.
Indeed, high “pass-through” rates have been found in developed countries (OOGHE et al., 2003, and AZEMAR and DESBORDES, 2010), in some cases close to 100%. This means that a large part of changes in payroll taxes is transferred to workers by adjusting wages, so that the effect on employment results marginal. Melguizo and González-Pára-mo (2012, p. 247) base their meta-analysis work on 52 empirical studies, and conclude that “in the long run,workers bear between two thirds of the tax burden (on labour) in Con-tinental and Anglo-Saxon economies, and nearly 90% in the Nordic economies”.
Also, when inspecting the experiences of some developed and developing coun-tries, Taymaz (2006) concludes that in both cases much of the payroll tax is transferred to the wages of employees, and the “pass-through” effect would be greater than 50%. In the specific case of Turkey, a transfer of about 70% was estimated.
According to the World Bank “research in Latin America suggests hat anywhere from 20-70% of the employer’s social security contributions are passed on to the worker” (WORLD BANK, 2009, p. 16). Higher values have been found by Gruber (1997) who in the case of Chile has found an almost total shift; by Cruces et. al. (2010) whom have calculated a “pass-through” effect between 40 and 90% in Argentina; and by Kugler (2005) which has found that the wages of workers covered by a new system of severance payments decreased by between 60% and 80% of employers’ contributions in Colombia.
Thus, in line with what theory predicts, in practice, companies manage to transfer a significant percentage of their mandatory contributions to the wages of its own em-ployees. Vice versa, in the event taxes were lowered, employees would manage to seize a significant share of tax breaks Some final considerations should be made about the level of aggregation of the information used.
Usually empirical findings based on aggregate data make use of changes in labour taxes in both directions, without distinguishing cases of reductionsfrom increases.
On the other hand, when using time series and/or cross-sectional data there is the risk of obtaining biased results because of omission bias, measurement error, or endo-genity of regressors(1).
In fact, at macro level there can be reverse causality between occupational outco-mes and labour taxes, being the first one-for example, an increase in unemployment or
(1) These potential drawbacks are highlighted throughout the empirical literature. Daveri (2002) addresses the issue in some depth.
