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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
February 3, 2015
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. Senior IRGC officials praised Lebanese Hezbollah’s 28 JAN attack that killed two Israeli soldiers in retribution for the 18 JAN Israeli airstrike in Syria.
2. Al Houthis set deadline for negotiated resolution to political crisis in Yemen.3. Ansar al Sharia established Islamic police to enforce shari’a in Benghazi, Libya.
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ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its
followers in the West. The Charlie Hebdo attack, claimed by AQAP, may provide both momentum to the movement and
propaganda for al Qaeda to push for such attacks. Despite competition with ISIS, the al Qaeda network will continue to direct
resources to the Iraq-Syria front to support the Sunni populations there. AQAP leadership is signaling that fighters in Iraq-Syria
should avoid adopting ISIS’s practice of killing Muslims who do not subscribe to its version of Islam.
Outlook: Al Qaeda seeks to reassert its relevance in the global jihadist movement and will try to influence the decision-making
of foreign fighters in the Iraq-Syria conflict.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Pakistani military continues to consistently target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in ground operations and air
strikes in tribal and urban areas of Pakistan. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes
target TTP leaders on both sides of Afghanistan and Pakistan border, and Pakistani and Afghan forces are to cooperate on
targeting TTP militants. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has reportedly launched a female suicide-bomber unit
(consisting of 500 women) that will operate in the Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal belt and will be guided by one of the wives of
al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri.
Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan
border. The tempo of militant attacks may falter in response to intensified anti-TTP operations. AQIS continues media
operations and may launch additional spectacular attacks, possibly in conjunction with TTP.
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AL QAEDA
ASSESSMENT:
PoliticalYemen’s political crisis remains unresolved as ongoing negotiations between al Houthis and political actors falter. A UN
delegate held peace talks in Sana’a, but they failed to produce any meaningful solution after being boycotted by the Southern
Movement and the GPC. The al Houthi movement held a National Dialogue conference in Sana’a from January 30 – February
1. The conference concluded with a statement from the al Houthis giving the different groups in Yemen three days to solve the
current political crisis. The statement implied that after this window the al Houthis will take direct control over Yemen’s
government. Demonstrators in Taiz, Dhamar, Ibb, Sana’a, and al Hudaydah held massive anti-al Houthi protests throughout the
week.
Outlook: Failure to find a political solution in Yemen before February 4 could lead to direct al Houthi control of Yemen’s
government.
SecuritySouthern Movement militants significantly increased activity against security forces in Lahij and Aden. Ansar al Sharia
continued attacks against security forces in Hadramawt and the al Houthis in al Bayda, Sana’a, and Ibb. The al Houthis
continued to clash with local tribes in Ma’rib.
Outlook: Ansar al Sharia continues its attacks on both security forces and the al Houthis. Increased Southern Movement
activity indicates preparations for possible secession.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP released a video condemning those who insult the Prophet and encouraging attacks against them, believing that it could
cause western governments to forbid publicly insulting the Prophet.
Outlook: AQAP will continue to use the Charlie Hebdo attacks to encourage similar strikes against western targets. AQAP may
look to increase its role in the areas where it has a strong presence as Yemen’s political situation becomes increasingly unstable.
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN
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1) 30 JAN: Al Houthi militants clash with security forces in al Hudaydah.2) 24-30 JAN: Al Houthi militants continue to clash with Ansar al Sharia near Rada’a, al Bayda.3) 29 JAN: Al Houthi militants clash with tribes in Ma’rib. Security Forces clash with Ansar al Sharia.4) 24-30 JAN:Southern Movement militants clash with security forces in Aden and Lahij.
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Al Houthis begin three-day national conference to discuss political crisis
ASSESSMENT:
PoliticalPrime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke announced his new cabinet proposal on January 27, including new appointees who were not part of previous administrations. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced that the amnesty offer for al Shabaab militants would be renewed. The Puntland administration claimed that the Somaliland administration was violating the 1992 arms embargo and alleged that Somaliland was aiding militants fighting against Puntland on January 30.
Outlook: The new cabinet should be approved as it addresses the concerns which caused Sharmarke’s last proposal to fail. The tension between Somaliland and Puntland could also hinder the fight against al Shabaab if left unaddressed.
SecurityAMISOM forces made progress in regaining territory from al Shabaab. AMISOM forces pushed al Shabaab out of villages in
Lower Jubba region in the area of Kismayo on January 27 and 29. There was also fighting outside of Garbaharey, Gedo region.
The Somali National Army claimed to have captured several al Shabaab members including two mid-level leaders. Somaliland
detained a ship in Berbera which was found to be transporting military hardware on January 25. Somaliland officials said that
they were investigating, but on January 29 they denied UN Monitors access to the port.
Outlook: Security forces continue to pressure al Shabaab in the south and will likely continue to do so. This pressure in the
south may have contributed to the lack of attacks in Mogadishu.
Al ShabaabAl Shabaab kidnapped forty-two Somalis from Gofgadud, Bay region on January 27. The militants did not issue a formal statement taking credit, but it was reported that they are demanding a ransom of $14,200. Former al Shabaab intelligence chief Zakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi appeared in Mogadishu and called for al Shabaab members to defect on January 27.
Outlook: The loss of control over portions of the south has likely caused al Shabaab to resort to kidnapping as a way to raise funds. The continued activities of security forces in the south will probably increase this problem for al Shabaab. Hersi’s call for further defections may encourage additional individuals to leave al Shabaab.
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:1) 25 JAN: Somaliland detains a ship carrying military hardware in Berbera port in WoqooyiGalbeed region. 2) 27 JAN: Al Shabaab kidnaps civilians in Gofgadud, Bay region.3) 27, 29 JAN: AMISOM forces battle al Shabaab in Lower Jubba region.4) 29 JAN: SNA forces capture al Shabaab militants outside of Garbaharey, Gedo region.
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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ASSESSMENT:
AQIMAlgeria continued its counter-smuggling operations against AQIM near Algiers and Algeria’s southern border.
Outlook: Unrest in Libya will continue to contribute to AQIM’s overall ability to carry out smuggling operations in the Sahel.
AQIM may seek to support Ansar al Din and associates in Mali and will probably continue its relationships with Ansar al Sharia
in Libya and Tunisia.
Ansar al Sharia (Libya, Tunisia)Operation Dignity continued to make incremental gains against Ansar al Sharia Libya and allied forces for control of Benghazi,
Libya. Despite the escalating clashes, Ansar al Sharia announced the formation of an Islamic police to enforce shari’a law in
Benghazi. Meanwhile, Ansar al Sharia reportedly appointed Abu Abdullah al Libi as new leader, following the death of former
leader Mohamed al Zahawi.
Outlook: Conflict in Libya is likely to continue unabated as Ansar al Sharia holds territory in Derna and Benghazi.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)UN peacekeepers killed three Malian protesters in the town of Gao. Civilians were upset about the recently established
temporary security zone established by the UN, which would have forced the pro-Bamako militia in the north to disarm, and
ultimately would have favored the MNLA. After the protests, the UN withdrew their agreement to form the temporary security
zone.
Outlook: The violence that continues to plague Northern Mali threatens upcoming inter-rebel peace talks. Ansar al Din and
other Islamist groups may take advantage of the growing unrest.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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1. 19 DEC: Tunisian army begins ground operations targeting AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn Nafaa Brigade in Jebel Chaambi.2. 16 DEC: Moroccan and Spanish authorities dismantle ISIS recruiting cell in Melilla. 3. 17-19 DEC: Fighting between Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn for control of Ras Lanufand Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1. 21 JAN: Libyan military forces seize the Libyan Central Bank branch in Benghazi during clashes with Ansar al Sharia2. 20-22 JAN: The Algerian military interdicts and arrests 58 smugglers in the Tamanrasset province3. 21 JAN: The Algerian military arrests a wanted terrorist working with groups abroad and two smugglers
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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1. 19 DEC: Tunisian army begins ground operations targeting AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn Nafaa Brigade in Jebel Chaambi.2. 16 DEC: Moroccan and Spanish authorities dismantle ISIS recruiting cell in Melilla. 3. 17-19 DEC: Fighting between Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn for control of Ras Lanufand Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1) 24 JAN: Algerian military arrests 62 people in anti-smuggling operations in Tamanrasset.2) 25-27 JAN: Operation Dignity attacks Ansar al Sharia forces, including launching airstrikes, in Benghazi.3) 30 JAN: Tunisia National Guard arrests 11 militants suspected of plotting terrorist attacks in southern Tunisia.
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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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SAHELWEST AFRICA
1) 27 JAN: UN peacekeepers kill three Malian protesters, who were demonstrating against a recently established buffer zone between Gao and Kidal. 2) 28 JAN: Pro-government GATIA forces attack MNLA separatists with vehicles and suicide bombers.
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ASSESSMENT:
Internal Politics
Eighty Members of Parliament signed a legal proposal to annul the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) signed between the P5+1 and
Tehran in November 2013, unless sanctions are completely lifted. Iranian and European Union officials met in Istanbul last
week for deputy-level talks in preparation for the next round of P5+1 nuclear negotiations planned for later in February.
Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who led Iran’s delegation, stated Tehran wants to resolve remaining
disagreements as quickly as possible.
Outlook: Parliament will continue to exert pressure on the Rouhani administration to demand the West lift sanctions and
honor Iran’s right to enrich uranium.
Military and Security
Senior IRGC officials praised Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)’s January 28 attack that killed two Israeli soldiers; the attack was in
retaliation for a January 18 Israeli airstrike which killed an IRGC general and several LH members. IRGC Commander Jafari
stated, however, that the LH retaliation was a “minimum response” to the attack, indicating the IRGC’s interest in potentially
launching its own reaction.
Outlook: The IRGC is likely to push for further retaliation to the January 18 airstrike.
Regional Politics
Following the resignation of the executive branch of the Yemeni government, the Foreign Ministry reiterated the regime’s
position supporting adherence to the September peace agreement, which called for a more inclusive unity government.
Outlook: Iran will continue to support a balance of power with a strong Houthi focus in the Yemeni government.
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IRAN
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN
1224-30 JAN 2015
25 JAN: MP says Iran will enrich to 60% if new sanctions are imposed.
26 JAN: Mohammad Reza Naghdi, Head of the Basij Organization, says Zionists should be prepared for the
complete destruction of Israel and said there will be an “appropriate response” for the airstrike killing an
IRGC general and several members of Lebanese Hezbollah.
27 JAN: Commemoration ceremony help in Esfahan for fallen IRGC general and Jihad Mugniyeh. Hossein
Amir Abdollahian, Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs, says Israeli airstrike is “red line.”
27 JAN: 80 Parliamentarians sign a legislative plan to annul the Joint Plan of Action if sanctions are not lifted.
28 JAN: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani says “conspiracy of low oil prices” will not work and praised the
Supreme Leader’s plan of “resistance economy.”
28 JAN: Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme Leader meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin
endorsed Iran’s bid for membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
28 JAN: Two Israeli soldiers killed in exchange of gunfire with Hezbollah along Israeli border with Lebanon.
29 JAN: Iran and EU-3 met in Istanbul for first day of talks in nuclear negotiation.
29 JAN: Supreme Leader published points expressing his support of the nuclear talks, but skepticism of the
West.
30 JAN: “Jihad Continues” conference is held to commemorate martyrs of the resistance. IRGC Commander
Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari expressed hope that the Hezbollah response would prevent Israel from
making the same “foolish mistake.”
ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)
Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
Islamic State (IS)
Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
North Waziristan (NWA)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
South Waziristan (SWA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS
Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6576
Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570
Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572
Mehrdad MoarefianIran [email protected](202) 888-6574
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.
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