AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT May 27, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Key Iranian regime players’ meetings with senior Syrian and Iraqi government officials and the Hezbollah Secretary General may signal Iranian efforts to bring more force to bear in defense of Assad and Baghdad against the growing ISIS threat.

2. Al Houthi attacks on Saudi territory will continue to antagonize Saudi Arabia and will decrease the likelihood that warring factions will participate in political negotiations in the near future.

3. Al Shabaab continues to demonstrate its capability to conduct attacks within Kenya and carried out multiple attacks, including temporarily seizing territory, in northern Kenyan over the week.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkThe U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released 103 newly declassified documents and non-classified documents discovered during the May 2011 Abbottabad raid in and around Osama bin Laden’s compound. Letters included in the cache show that bin Laden’s 22-year-old son Hamza may have been in the process of being groomed to be his father’s successor, but his whereabouts remain unknown. The letters also show bin Laden’s focus on large-scale operations against the West over smaller operations or lone-wolf attacks.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to try to inspire low-scale attacks in the West and its fight in Syria, but will also take advantage of recent gains in Yemen. It is not clear how it will respond to the growth of ISIS cells, particularly the announcement of allegiance to ISIS in Mali.

 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesU.S. airstrikes killed six militants in Shawal Valley in North Waziristan. Pakistani officials identified the targets as Uzbek foreign fighters, while other sources identified them as Punjabi Taliban and Arab foreign fighters. Pakistani government officials condemned the airstrikes. Yet, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced the extension of Operation Zarb-e-Azb into Shawal Valley. The area is a stronghold of Khan “Sajna” Said, a leader of a Taliban faction.

Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) has identified a local al Qaeda network at fault for the recent killings of Ismailis in Karachi and other high profile killings. While there is evidence ISIS affiliates are in Pakistan and potentially responsible for recent attacks, the government is denying the group’s involvement.

Outlook: Continued drone strikes in North/South Waziristan, now including Shawal Valley, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan border.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe international community’s efforts to jumpstart a negotiated political settlement in Yemen continue to fail. The UN announced that it would hold Yemeni political talks in Geneva on May 28, but later postponed the talks without mentioning a future date. The postponement came after Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government voiced objections to the talks and demanded the al Houthis disarm.

Outlook: Efforts to bring both the al Houthis and Hadi’s government to the negotiating table are likely to fail as the al Houthis continue to refuse to disarm and relinquish control of territory.

SecurityAl Houthi militants continued to attack Saudi targets along the Saudi-Yemeni border. The al Houthis have both fired rockets at populated locations in Saudi Arabia and raided Saudi border posts. Saudi Arabia has responded by continuing to target al Houthi-occupied locations in Yemen with airstrikes. Separately, popular resistance fighters have continued to battle al Houthi militants for control of cities in southern and central Yemen and were able to push the al Houthis out of al Dhaleh, marking the first significant gain for anti-al Houthi forces in south-central Yemen.

Outlook: Continued al Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia will further escalate tensions between Saudi Arabia and the al Houthi movement and may provoke a stronger Saudi response as internal Saudi security is threatened.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in YemenISIS Wilayat Sana’a militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) at a Zaydi mosque frequented by al Houthis in the capital, Sana’a, on May 22. Pro-ISIS militants likewise detonated a suicide vest (SVEST) at a Shi’ite mosque in Saudi Arabia, claiming credit for the attack under the name Wilayat Najd. It not clear whether the attacks are related.

Outlook: Pro-ISIS groups have continued to target Shi’ite populations in the Arabian Peninsula in an attempt to increase sectarian conflict in the region. ISIS groups in Yemen may also be looking to compete with AQAP for supporters.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

GULF OF ADEN

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YEMEN1) 22 MAY: ISIS Wilayat Sana’a militants detonated an IED targeting al Houthis in the capital, Sana’a.2) 18-25 MAY: Al Houthi militants attacked Saudi positions along the Saudi-Yemeni border.3) 21 MAY: Saudi artillery fire hit a humanitarian aid office in Midi, Hajjah.4) 16-25 MAY: Al Houthi militants continued to battle popular resistance fighters for control of major Yemeni cities.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalVice President of the Jubbaland Administration Abdullahi Sheikh Ismael Fartaag announced that Jubbaland forces supported by AMISOM troops would launch an offensive to retake areas controlled by al Shabaab, continuing his anti-al Shabaab stance. Fartaag did not announce a date for the start of the offensive. Somali officials have previously released statements announcing that new offensives would begin as early as March, but, as of yet, no significant operations have launched.

Outlook: Although retaking the areas of southern Somalia controlled by al Shabaab will be necessary to defeat the group, there have not been any significant operations despite previous announcements.

Security Kenya conducted an airstrike targeting a militant base in Gadondhawe, Gedo region, near the Somali-Kenyan border on May 20 in an attempt to degrade al Shabaab. It was not clear how effective the airstrike was, but Kenya conducted an airstrike in the same area on April 6. Separately, al Shabaab claimed to have captured a crashed suspected U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Bay region on May 17.

Outlook: Kenyan airstrikes will likely not seriously impede al Shabaab activities in Somalia, nor are they likely to prevent the group from operating in northern Kenya due to the porous Somali-Kenyan border.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab militants continued to operate in northern Kenya when they seized control of a mosque in Garissa county, North Eastern Province, on May 21. While in control of the mosque the militants preached to the gathered congregation, then escaped before security forces could arrive. Militants also briefly seized control of a town in Garissa county on May 21, but left the town and were pursued by security forces.

Outlook: Al Shabaab is still able to operate in northern Kenya, despite attempts by Kenyan security forces to increase security following the April 2 Garissa University attack.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 20 MAY: Kenya conducted an airstrike targeting al Shabaab near Gadondhawe, Gedo region.2) 21 MAY: Al Shabaab attacked a town in Garissa County, North Eastern Province, Kenya.3) 23 MAY: Al Shabaab militants attacked SNA forces in Mubarak, Lower Shabelle region.4) 25 MAY: Al Shabaab captured town of Janale, Lower Shabelle region.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM The Algerian army conducted a large counter-terrorism operation in northern Algeria, reportedly killing 28 militants. The operation appears to have targeted both AQIM and ISIS-linked fighters. Uthman al Asimi, the emir of the ISIS-linked Soldiers of the Caliphate, was killed in the operation.

Outlook: The Algerian army is likely to continue its counter-terrorism operations in the north, but attacks against the Algerian military could increase as a result.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)U.S. President Obama upgraded Tunisia’s status to major non-NATO ally in a meeting with Tunisian President Essebsi. This status is held by close allies like Israel and Japan and helps expedite defense shipments and military training to Tunisia.

Outlook: Tunisia continues to receive much-needed military support to combat its radical elements. The Tunisian army is likely to continue its interdiction and counter-terrorism operations and may receive more U.S. support.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) The security situation in Mali continues to deteriorate. Several clashes between CMA rebels and pro-government militia fighters broke out across northern Mali. French soldiers killed four militants, belonging to AQIM and Ansar al Din, in a special operation in northern Mali. In the south, militants attacked a MINUSMA vehicle in Mali’s capital, Bamako, where such attacks are rare. Separately, MUJAO leader Abu Waleed al Sahraoui claimed responsibility for taking a Romanian citizen hostage on April 4 in Burkina Faso. Al Sahraoui referred to himself as emir of al Murabitoun during this claim, indicating a potential rift between MUJAO and al Mulathamun. MUJAO and al Mulathamun announced a merger in August 2013 under the name of al Murabitoun.

Outlook: The increase in violence throughout Mali undermines any efforts to implement a recently signed peace accord. The role that pro-government militias play in fighting seems to be growing. Furthermore, the potential rift between MUJAO and al Murabitoun could contribute to more violence.

MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA1) 19 MAY: Algerian forces conducted an operation killing at least 25 terrorists, belonging to both AQIM and ISIS, in Bouira.2) 19 MAY: Moroccan security forces dismantled an ISIS recruitment cell operating in Casablanca and Boujniba, western Morocco.3) 17 MAY: Algerian army units ambushed and killed one terrorist in Mount Bou Yatas, northern Algeria.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHEL

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WEST AFRICA

1) 22 MAY: The Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) fighters clashed with the Malian army and captured 19 soldiers in Tessit, Mali.2) 20-21 MAY: CMA rebels clashed with pro-government GATIA fighters, killing six civilians, in Tin Hama and Tin Fadimata, Mali. 3) 25 MAY: Militants shot at a MINUSMA vehicle in the capital, Bamako, killing one peacekeeper and wounding another.

ASSESSMENT:

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Regional Developments The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati met with senior Lebanese officials in Beirut and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Velayati also met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus. Velayati’s trips to Beirut and Damascus are part of Iran’s ongoing effort to promote enhanced relations to reinforce the key pillars of its resistance strategy in Syria and Lebanon. These activities coincide with Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan’s meetings with his Iraqi counterpart Khaled al Obedi and Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi in Baghdad. Velayati and Dehghan are likely consolidating security measures in response to deteriorating situations in Iraq and Syria.

The Iran Shahed, an Iranian cargo ship carrying 2,500 tons of humanitarian aid supplies in support of relief efforts in Yemen, reportedly docked in Djibouti on May 22. The UN stated that the World Food Program will deliver the ship’s cargo to Yemen.

Outlook: Iran will continue to coordinate with its regional partners and proxies in response to the deteriorating circumstances in Iraq and Syria.

Nuclear Talks

Deputy-level negotiations between Iran and members of the P5+1 were held from May 20-22 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides remained focused on drafting the text for a final nuclear agreement ahead of the self-imposed June 30 deadline. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s inflexible position that Iranian military sites are off limits to inspections continues to be a major impediment to the IAEA’s verification of compliance efforts. Khamenei has been explicit in reinforcing his red line on IAEA-led inspections, stating: “…there will absolutely be no such access… I will not allow foreigners to come in and interrogate the dear and distinguished scientists and sons of this nation."

 

Outlook: The Supreme Leader’s adamant opposition to inspections, although counter to IAEA safeguards, is nevertheless misleading, because there is no indication that the P5+1 will not make further concessions on IAEA investigations.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

16 MAY – 25 MAY 2015

17 MAY: Supreme Leader Khamenei demanded that the U.S. leave the Middle East and called for regional cooperation to secure the Persian Gulf. 

18 MAY: Khamenei’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati met with Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.

18 MAY: Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan met with Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi in Baghdad.

19 MAY: Ali Akbar Velayati met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus.

19 MAY: Tehran and Baghdad signed an agreement to boost joint defense and security cooperation.

20 MAY: Khamenei explicitly stated that inspectors will not be granted access to Iranian military sites.

20 MAY: Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei appeared in full IRGC uniform bearing major general rank insignia at the Imam Hossein University graduation ceremony.

20 MAY: Tehran announced that the humanitarian aid ship Iran Shahed carrying 2,500 tons of aid supplies to Yemen will dock in Djibouti for possible inspection by ICRC officials.

20 MAY: Deputy-level nuclear negotiations resumed in Vienna, Austria.

22 MAY: IRGC Air Force Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that under no circumstance will Iran grant inspectors access to its military sites.

22 MAY: The Iranian humanitarian aid ship Iran Shahed docked in Djibouti.

23 MAY: IRGC Qods Force Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghani stated that Iran has been training the “defenders of Yemen.”

24 MAY: IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani criticized President Obama and said that the U.S. did not “do a damn thing” to stop ISIS from taking Ramadi.

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org (202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.