Upload
releaseey
View
1.071
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
3462
104 8 20
2
2
3
GDP
%
/GDP 69.6 51.6 187.6 24.0 18.7 13.5
/GDP 58.8 44.0 142.0 21.7 15.2 9.4
/GDP 10.8 7.6 45.6 2.2 3.5 4.1
/GDP 129.2 97.2 350.9 45.2 40.2 29.8
GDP () 1.0 2.7 0.6 19.5 8.7 32.9
GDP (2014 )
GDP 1.2.
IFS IHS Global Insight
4
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
-60
-30
0
30
60
2000Q1 2003Q1 2006Q1 2009Q1 2012Q1 2015Q2
()
% %
0.82
IHS Global Insight
5
IMF 1
1. 1/3
2.
(1) 5
(2)
1986~2000 GDP 1% 2.18%
2001~2013GDP1%1.31%
2013GDP1%0.7%
1990 GDP
2000
Constantinescu et al. (2015)
1
(1)
(2)
6
2000 GDP
2000
2 1993 60%
2012 35%
World Bank (2015) What Lies Behind the Global Trade Slowdown?
Global Economic Prospects, January.
% (=/)
60%
35%
7
3
1. 2014 1,250
2. 2015 2025
3~5 3
1.
2.
IEK (2015/08)
8
1. 1IC 2 50%
2.
1.
2.
3.
IC
1.
2.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
LED
IEK(2015/08)
/
9
1.
-13.4
-12.5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q1
Q2
%
10
0.364
0.422
0.441 0.426
0.314
0.306
0.349
0.307
0.285
0.308
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6
%
() 38.9 30.9 20.1
18.3 14.0 27.3
12.4 13.6 7.3
6.7 5.1 4.0
World Trade Atlas
2. 38.9%30.9%
20.1%
(2015 2 )
11
-4.4
-11.3
-5.2
31.3
-2.7 -1.2 -4.8
-21.0
-12.5
-6.9
-13.0
6.6
-13.3 -13.2
9.4
-17.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2015Q1 2015Q2
%
2015Q2
(%) (2.9) (4.8) (1.1) (12.5) (47.2) (6.0) (18.5)
1. 2
13.2% 13.3%
2. 12
20%
12
0.349
0.368
0.320
0.340
0.410
0.388
0.416
0.433
0.491
0.380
0.392
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6
%
4.7 6.7 22.3
6.6 6.6 14.9
7.7 6.7 5.7
4.1 2.8 0.2
9.1 8.7 1.7
10.5 12.2 13.3
39.9 25.3 17.0
4.1 20.4 1.6
() 6.7 6.4 4.9
FTA ITA
39.9%
25.3%17.0%
(2015 2 )
13
: %
2015/(p) 2.14 3.19 -1.29 0.59 -1.89 1.06 2.27 2.43
(3.21) (2.64) (-1.01) (1.47) (-5.39) (2.79) (4.55) (2.44)
(f) 1.01 2.92 -1.53 2.60 -3.23 4.26 0.52 1.52
(3.34) (2.89) (-1.44) (2.50) (-7.31) (5.27) (4.83) (3.28)
2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96
(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)
: (5/22)
:
1.56%
5 3.28% 1.72
14
: %
2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 3.53 -2.66 -0.20 -11.55 1.76 6.13 2.71
Q2 (p) 0.52 2.85 0.05 1.33 6.05 0.38 -1.30 2.15
(3.05) (2.75) (0.14) (2.54) (-0.06) (3.11) (3.27) (2.41)
Q3 (f) 0.10 2.94 -1.42 4.14 3.21 4.36 -0.39 1.64
(3.14) (2.80) (-1.15) (2.49) (-5.53) (4.21) (5.38) (3.57)
Q4 (f) 1.90 2.90 -1.64 1.04 -7.60 4.14 1.39 1.40
(3.53) (2.98) (-1.72) (2.51) (-8.50) (6.48) (4.29) (2.99)
2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96
(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)
(5/22)
:
*
/
2.14% 5 3.21% 1.07
1.01% 5 3.34% 2.33
1. (1)(2)
(3)
2. (1)(2)
15
:
(1)=(2)+(3) (2) (3)
2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 1.25 1.94 -0.38 -0.04 -0.36 0.32 -0.27 2.59 4.21 1.62
Q2 (p) 0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 0.29 0.23 0.06 0.91 -2.20 -0.92 1.28
(3.05) (2.18) (1.46) (0.02) (0.55) (0.00) (0.56) (0.14) (0.87) (2.30) (1.44)
Q3 (f) 0.10 1.36 1.56 -0.20 0.90 0.12 0.78 -0.90 -1.25 -0.28 0.97
(3.14) (1.49) (1.48) (-0.16) (0.54) (-0.21) (0.75) (-0.37) (1.65) (3.78) (2.13)
Q4 (f) 1.90 1.78 1.50 -0.25 0.22 -0.43 0.65 0.31 0.12 0.98 0.86
(3.53) (2.28) (1.54) (-0.26) (0.53) (-0.49) (1.01) (0.47) (1.25) (3.04) (1.79)
2015 (f) 1.56 1.78 1.62 -0.21 0.35 -0.11 0.46 0.01 -0.22 0.95 1.17
(3.28) (1.70) (1.47) (-0.18) (0.43) (-0.26) (0.70) (-0.02) (1.57) (3.29) (1.72)
: (5/22)
*
:
/
3. 3 0.1%
16
%
1 1
2014 -3.5 6.1 2.3 -0.2 -1.5 3.2 1.8 -0.4 2.4 2.7
2015
Q1-6.0 4.6 -3.0 -11.5 -17.2 2.3 -10.2 -4.7 -11.1 -4.2
Q2 -10.2 -2.2 -7.21 -14.7 -17.6 -1.9 -15.7 -5.0 -14.9 -9.8
1~ 6 -8.1 1.0 -5.2 -13.2 -17.4 0.1 -13.2 -4.8 -13.1 -7.1
7 n.a. -8.3 -3.4 -12.4 -16.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -11.9
Datastream
2. n.a.
()
1.1.4%50.6%
2
17
: %
() -
0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 1.20 -2.20 -0.92 1.28
2.2 3.2 0.8 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.5
1.8 -0.7 1.3 -2.0 0.0 2.5 1.2 -1.3
:
20152
2
1 2
2
2015/Q1 2015/Q2
3.84 0.52
2.5 2.2
2.8 1.8
2015
%yoy
18
%
-9.81 -7.77 -2.04 -3.21
-7.21 -9.85 2.64 -2.24
-14.74 -12.88 -1.86 -0.50
-14.90 -16.07 1.17
-15.60 -20.48 4.88
-18.89 -17.53 -1.36 1.
2.
Datastream
1.
(1)
(2)
(3)
2015 2
()
19
718.0 587.7 130.3 102.1 1,435.1 1,085.8 349.3 264.3 1,068.0 808.1 260.0 91.8
142.5 122.8 19.7 27.3 233.4 273.5 -40.1 -18.4 338.3 334.5 3.9 -10.4
2014
GDP(%)
*
7.6 45.6
*
10.8
2.
(1) GDP 45.6%
(2) 1.1
5.0
(3) MERS
(4)
2015 2
20
: %
0.52 2.72 1.52 0.24 0.01 0.23 0.97
2.2 3.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.5
1.8 -0.7 1.3 -- -2.0
:
0.0
()
3.
(1) 2 2.72 0.91
(2) 2 2015
38.4%
0.9
2015 2
21
7
1. 1-6 M2 6.47% 2.14%
2. 8 13
M2
22
1.
(1)
(2)
2. 3,179 3,596 13.1% 984 1,033 4.9%
3.
(1) IMF 0.5 IMF 4 1
(2) IMF20145 3
(3)
GDP 1 GDP
4
() GDP 0.4% GDP 1.5%
GDP 1.5% GDP 3.0%
IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic Outlook, Oct..
23
Q1 Q2
8.8 12.9 10.1 3.6 -20.3 34.8 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.7 -4.2 -9.8
() 4.6 5.8 5.0 -0.3 -6.2 15.2 3.4 -1.8 0.9 1.1 -1.7 -5.0
1.8 1.9 2.3 1.1 -3.2 5.5 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 -2.0 -2.0
-0.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 -2.9 3.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 -1.2
0.2 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8 3.9 1.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.2
2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 -5.2 6.9 3.0 -0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 20102005 2006 2007 2008
1.
2.
1 6 6 8.7% 10.5%
24
%
%
%
2005 29.20 23.89 5.31 3.6 3.0 0.7
2010 33.14 24.23 8.92 4.8 3.5 1.3
2014 31.76 21.30 10.46 5.3 3.5 1.7
2005-2014 30.94 22.58 8.35 44.1 32.2 11.9
2015
25
LG
1.
2.
3.
RTAs
IMF 6 RTAs
25%
TPPRCEP
26
()
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD (2015)
skill mismatch
OECD
27
(entrepreneurship) 7
1. 2011
2. 2013
3. 2015 9
28
: %
(GDP)*
2009 -1.57 -0.09
2010 10.63 9.84
2011 3.8 -0.63
2012 2.06 1.92
2013 2.23 3.63
2014 3.77 5.73
2015/Q1 3.84 8.76
Q2 0.52 5.95
:
2013
TOT
8
*
= GDP
+
+
-
-
+
T = M(1
1
)
T = E(1
1
)
()
()
T T M/PM M/PE E/PM E/PE
29
A. Y=C+I+G+X-M
B. 1 Y=(C-Cm)+(I-Im) +(G-Gm)+(X-Xm)
2015 2 : %
(A) (B)
(Y) 0.52 0.52
2.73 0.92
(C) 1.52 0.55
(I)2 0.97 0.37
(G) 0.24 0.00
-2.20 -0.40
(X-M) -2.20
(X-Xm) -0.40
1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011
2.
30
2015
: %
(A) (B)
(Y) 1.56 1.56
1.78 0.84
(C) 1.62 0.89
(I)2 0.47 0.23
(G) -0.32 -0.28
-0.22 0.71
(X-M) -0.22
(X-Xm) 0.71
1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011
2.
31
1. Constantinescu, C, A Mattoo and M Ruta (2015), The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural? IMF Working
Paper, Jan..Flanders, Stephanie (2015), The Warning Signs of Trade Stagnation, Financial Times, July 28.
2. 2008 55.0% 2013
72.8% 55.7% 66.1%
3. IEK (2015/08)
()
4. IMF Blanchard IMF IMF
IMF Giles, Chris (2015), IMF
Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard to Retire, Financial Times, May 14.
5. IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic Outlook, Oct..
6. Kpodar K. and Iman P. (2015) Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lesson or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An
Empirical Investigation, IMF working paper No. 15/177
7. Narea, Nicole (2015), Dell Pushes UN To Adopt Entrepreneurship In Its New Global Development Agenda, Forbes,
Aug. 6. Smith, Daniel (2010) The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, Undergraduate Economic Review:
Vol. 6: Iss.1, Article 7.UNCTAD (2004), Entrepreneurship and Economics Development, May.
8. 100 () 1 5 50
10