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Rising Seas and Extreme Storms:Similarities and differences
@John EnglanderNewport, RIDecember 10, 2014
FEMA photo
Storm events….“Sandy”
one month after “Sandy”, the“no name” Thanksgiving storm of 2012
Not a Future Problemsaltwater on the streets
every month at peak tide
King Tide not Florida to replace next FLL
Flooding has many variations
Flooding due to:1. Storms
2. Extreme Tides
3. Rising Sea Level
4. Subsidence
5. Runoff / Downstream
6. [Erosion]
Flooding due to:1. Storms
2. Extreme Tides
3. Rising Sea Level
4. Subsidence
5. Runoff / Downstream
6. [Erosion]
Drivers
Predictability
Magnitude
Permanence
Impact areas
Different
Sea LevelToday
Elevation
Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Tides and Waves
SLR
Long-Term Risk Factors
Episodic Risk Factors
Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation (!)
William O’Reilly / Scripps Institution of Oceanography
See Level change is “new.”
Barely changed in 5,000 years.
Last time it was higher was 120,000
years ago.
@johnenglander
Sea Level
20,000 Years Ago
Present Sea Level
When all ice meltsMiami Tower“Bank of America”
30th Floor
47th Floor
212 ft (65 m)
20,000 years agoLast Ice Age
390 ft (120 m)
@ johnenglander.net
© 2006 John Englander
@johnenglander
@johnenglander
Greenland =24 feet of SLR
Antarctica = 186 feet of SLR
© 2006 John Englander
Last half century continues the pattern:CO2, global temperature, and sea level are all rising
By 2100, new IPCC Projections:
“10 – 32 Inches of SLR”
#’s do not include the “wild card” amplifiers:
• Methane • West Antarctic glaciers
Methane becoming larger factor
86 x CO2 warming force per unit / 20 years
Takeaways
1. Storms + tides + SLR = vulnerability now
2. After years of stability, SL is rising and
will continue for centuries
3. We can slow SLR, but not stop it
4. The trend can be your friend
5. Know your risk, plan, and adapt
Sacramento, CA is 80 miles from the Pacific but has extreme vulnerability to rising sea level and over a thousand miles of earthen levees.
Rotterdam Multipurpose Urban Dikes Concept
Water Plaza
UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
KWS (NL)Benelux Flood Defence System
Beach Resort Scheveningen: Dike-under-Boulevard concept
KWS (NL)Benelux Flood Defence System
New dike
BoulevardAdditional dune
Noordwijk: ‘Dike-in-Dune’ concept
Designing for future generations…
…is our responsibility, and a great opportunity
RECAP
1. Storms, Extreme Tides, and SLR are different.
2. SLR will have different effects in different places.
3. Projections differ and change. Plan for first 3 feet of SLR, asap……more to come
4. Don’t confuse planning for SLR with reducing GHG and other efforts at being “sustainable” and green.
www.johnenglander.net
Amazon.com: print and Kindle
Twitter: @johnenglander
RI @ johnenglander.net